UFC Fight Night: Werdum vs. Tybura
Sydney, Australia
18 Nov 2017
Welterweight
VS
77%
Matthews
23%
Velickovic
Win Probability
Decision
Round 3 · 5:00
Jake
Jake Matthews
"The Celtic Kid"
22 – 8
5'11"73" reachOrthodox31 yrsWell-Rounded
CFR 55
BV
Bojan Velickovic
"Serbian Steel"
15 – 6
Well-Rounded2-fight slide37 yrsSouthpaw76" reach6'0"
CFR 17

Combatrics Intelligence

Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics

Edge: Matthews

Matthews is a strong favourite at 77% win probability per the CFR ratings. The data points decisively in one direction.

Key angles

The CFR gap of 39 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.

Matthews has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.

Risk flags

Matthews's chin rating of 24 flags durability concerns based on KO history.

Matthews
Velickovic
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'11"
Height
+6'0"
73"
Reach
+76"
31+
Age
37
Orthodox
Stance
Southpaw
Matthews
Velickovic
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
55.4
16.5
48.3
Performance Avg
38.5
37
Quality of Victory
38
100
Momentum Score
56
Matthews
Velickovic
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.2
0.8
46%
Strike Accuracy
31%
2.0
Striking Style Score (/10)
5.8
1 KOs
KO Finishes
1 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
10
Head
4
1
Body
0
1
Leg
2
RangeRange
4Distance4
0Clinch0
8Ground2
Matthews
Velickovic
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
0.1
Sub Attempts / fight
0.2
4.3
Grappling Style Score (/10)
1.2
3.0
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
0.8
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Matthews
Velickovic
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
24
94
KO risk
Verdict
Never stopped
1
KO/TKO Losses
0
4
Sub Losses
0
Avg R1.0 stoppage
KO round context
—
18 fights ago
Last KO loss
—
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
24/30 fights
Chin rating based on
6/21 fights
Matthews
Velickovic
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
100
56
Current form
2-fight 📉 slide
Upcoming
L · Sub · R3
W · Sub · R1
W · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
Last 5
L · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
W · KO · R3
L · Dec · R3
Upcoming
Matthews
Velickovic
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
47%
50%
1
KO / TKO Wins
1
6
Submission Wins
0
8
Decision Wins
1

Style Fingerprint

Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10

Matthews
Velickovic
Striking2.0 / 5.8Volume5.0 / 4.8Grappling4.3 / 1.2Wrestling3.0 / 0.8Submission4.0 / 0.0Pressure5.2 / 4.7
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
2.0
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
5.8
4.3
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
1.2
3.0
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
0.8
4.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
5.2
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
4.7
5.0
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
4.8
Matthews
Strike Zones
Velickovic
Matthews
Attacking
10HEAD1BODY1LEGS12 landed
Absorbing
4HEAD0BODY2LEGS6 absorbed
Velickovic
Attacking
4HEAD0BODY2LEGS6 landed
Absorbing
10HEAD1BODY1LEGS12 absorbed
Targeting Overlap
🎯Matthews targets the head (83% of attacks) — Velickovic absorbs 83% of strikes there
🎯Velickovic targets the head (67% of attacks) — Matthews absorbs 67% of strikes there

Round by Round

This fight · per-round breakdown

Matthews
RND
Velickovic
0/0R00/0

Matthews · QOF Timeline

Avg: 4.9
0105.5W5.2W1.5L4.2W5.5W1.5L5.5L4.5W5.3W5.0W4.0L4.5W4.5W4.5W5.1L5.2W6.0L6.0W7.6L5.6W5.2W6.1W4.6L2014-062016-112020-022023-112025-09
WinLossTrend

Velickovic · QOF Timeline

Avg: 5.5
0104.5W5.5L5.5W5.5L6.5L2016-042016-122017-052017-092017-11
WinLossTrend

Matthews · Last 5

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L · Sub · R3
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Submission
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W · Sub · R1
Chidi NjokuaniRating 6.1
Submission
UFC Fight Night: Lewis vs. Teixeira · 2025-07
W · Dec · R3
Francisco PradoRating 5.2
Decision
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W · Dec · R3
Phil RoweRating 5.6
Decision
UFC 302: Makhachev vs. Poirier · 2024-06

Velickovic · Last 5

L · Dec · R3
Jake MatthewsRating 6.5
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Werdum vs. Tybura · 2017-11
L · Dec · R3
Darren TillRating 5.5
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Volkov vs. Struve · 2017-09
W · KO · R3
Nicholas MusokeRating 5.5
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Gustafsson vs. Teixeira · 2017-05
L · Dec · R3
Sultan AlievRating 5.5
Decision
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Upcoming
Michael Graves
Decision
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News & Media

Jake Matthews · Bojan Velickovic
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