UFC Fight Night: Evloev vs. Murphy
London, United Kingdom
21 Mar 2026
Featherweight
VS
48%
Evloev
52%
Murphy
Win Probability
Decision
Round 5 · 5:00
Movsar
Movsar Evloev
20 – 0
5'7"72" reachOrthodox32 yrs10-fight win streakWell-Rounded
CFR 61
Lerone
Lerone Murphy
"The Miracle"
17 – 1
Well-Rounded34 yrsOrthodox73" reach5'9"
CFR 66

Combatrics Intelligence

Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics

Edge: Murphy

This is a genuine toss-up — Evloev at 48% vs Murphy at 52% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.

Key angles

Murphy has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 11 points.

Striking split: Evloev throws more volume but Murphy connects at a higher rate — quality vs quantity.

Evloev
Murphy
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'7"
Height
+5'9"
72"
Reach
+73"
32+
Age
34
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Evloev
Murphy
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
60.8
65.5
55.0
Performance Avg
57.7
25
Quality of Victory
36
100
Momentum Score
100
Evloev
Murphy
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.4
1.3
46%
Strike Accuracy
52%
2.0
Striking Style Score (/10)
5.1
0 KOs
KO Finishes
3 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
7
Head
9
4
Body
0
1
Leg
3
RangeRange
12Distance12
0Clinch0
0Ground0
Evloev
Murphy
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
0.1
Sub Attempts / fight
—
2.4
Grappling Style Score (/10)
1.6
1.7
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
1.1
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Evloev
Murphy
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
100
98
Never stopped
Verdict
Never stopped
0
KO/TKO Losses
0
0
Sub Losses
0
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
10/20 fights
Chin rating based on
11/18 fights
Evloev
Murphy
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
100
100
10-fight 🔥 win streak
Current form
W · Dec · R5
W · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
Last 5
L · Dec · R5
W · KO · R1
W · Dec · R5
W · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R5
Evloev
Murphy
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
0%
33%
0
KO / TKO Wins
3
0
Submission Wins
0
10
Decision Wins
6

Style Fingerprint

Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10

Evloev
Murphy
Striking2.0 / 5.1Volume10.0 / 7.1Grappling2.4 / 1.6Wrestling1.7 / 1.1Submission0.0 / 0.0Pressure3.0 / 5.0
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
2.0
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
5.1
2.4
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
1.6
1.7
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
1.1
0.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
3.0
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
5.0
10.0
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
7.1
Evloev
Strike Zones
Murphy
Evloev
Attacking
7HEAD4BODY1LEGS12 landed
Absorbing
9HEAD0BODY3LEGS12 absorbed
Murphy
Attacking
9HEAD0BODY3LEGS12 landed
Absorbing
7HEAD4BODY1LEGS12 absorbed
Targeting Overlap
🎯Evloev targets the head (58% of attacks) — Murphy absorbs 58% of strikes there
🎯Murphy targets the head (75% of attacks) — Evloev absorbs 75% of strikes there

Round by Round

This fight · per-round breakdown

Evloev
RND
Murphy
0/0R00/0

Evloev · QOF Timeline

Avg: 5.1
0104.7W4.5W4.5W4.5W4.6W5.2W5.8W5.9W5.5W6.0W2019-042021-012023-052026-03
WinLossTrend

Murphy · QOF Timeline

Avg: 5.2
0105.1W4.7W5.3W5.2W4.8W5.0W5.2W4.6W5.1W6.8L2020-072023-032024-102026-03
WinLossTrend

Evloev · Last 5

W · Dec · R5
Lerone MurphyRating 6
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Evloev vs. Murphy · 2026-03
W · Dec · R3
Aljamain SterlingRating 5.5
Decision
UFC 310: Pantoja vs. Asakura · 2024-12
W · Dec · R3
Arnold AllenRating 5.9
Decision
UFC 297: Strickland vs. Du Plessis · 2024-01
W · Dec · R3
Diego LopesRating 5.8
Decision
UFC 288: Sterling vs. Cejudo · 2023-05
W · Dec · R3
Dan IgeRating 5.2
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Volkov vs. Rozenstruik · 2022-06

Murphy · Last 5

L · Dec · R5
Movsar EvloevRating 6.8
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Evloev vs. Murphy · 2026-03
W · KO · R1
Aaron PicoRating 5.1
KO/TKO
UFC 319: Du Plessis vs. Chimaev · 2025-08
W · Dec · R5
Josh EmmettRating 4.6
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Emmett vs. Murphy · 2025-04
W · Dec · R3
Dan IgeRating 5.2
Decision
UFC 308: Topuria vs. Holloway · 2024-10
W · Dec · R5
Edson BarbozaRating 5
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Barboza vs. Murphy · 2024-05

News & Media

Movsar Evloev · Lerone Murphy
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