METRICS GUIDE
Every stat on this page, explained
All stats are calculated from official fight data. Style scores are Combatrics proprietary ratings updated after every event.
UFC Fight Night: Barnett vs Nelson
Saitama, Japan
26 Sept 2015
Heavyweight
VS
58%
Barnett
42%
Nelson
Win Probability
Decision
Round 5 · 5:00
★ Official Result
Josh BarnettwinsDecisionR5 · 5:00
def. Roy Nelson · UFC Fight Night: Barnett vs Nelson
Fight Report
Pre-fight analysis · prediction vs result
Prediction vs Result
We predicted
Barnett
→
Actual result
Barnett wins
Decision · R5
Pre-fight analysis
This is a genuine toss-up — Barnett at 58% vs Nelson at 42% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.
Risk flags
Barnett's chin rating of 44 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
Nelson has a chin rating of 60 — a potential KO vulnerability.
This Fight — Statistics
Actual stats from this bout
BarnettNelson
0
Sig. Strikes
0
0.0
Strikes / min (SLpM)
0.0
—
Strike Accuracy
—
Barnett
Nelson
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
6'3"+
Height
6'0"
78"+
Reach
73"
48+
Age
50
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Barnett
Nelson
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
25.3
18.5
66.2
Performance Avg
55.6
64
Quality of Victory
61
100
Momentum Score
26
Barnett
Nelson
Striking
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
7.1
/ 10
9.8
/ 10
8.1
Style: Pressure
7.6
2.5
Style: Volume
1.8
4 KO wins
Finish Rate (strikes)
8 KO wins
Per-minute strike stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Strike targetStrike target
12
Head
11
13
Body
7
0
Leg
0
RangeRange
8Distance6
17Clinch10
0Ground2
Barnett
Nelson
Grappling
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
2.6
/ 10
0.3
/ 10
1.8
Wrestling Style (/10)
0.2
2.9
Submission Style (/10)
0.0
2
Submission wins
0
Per-fight takedown stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Barnett
Nelson
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
44
60
KO risk
Verdict
Moderate
2
KO/TKO Losses
1
1
Sub Losses
0
Avg R1.5 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R2.0 stoppage
3 fights ago
Last KO loss
6 fights ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
10/43 fights
Chin rating based on
19/36 fights
Barnett
Nelson
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
100
26
W · Sub · R3
L · Sub · R2
W · Dec · R5
L · KO · R1
W · KO · R1
Last 5
L · Dec · R3
W · KO · R2
L · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R5
Barnett
Nelson
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
86%
89%
4
KO / TKO Wins
8
2
Submission Wins
0
1
Decision Wins
1
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Barnett
Nelson
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
7.1
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
9.8
2.6
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
0.3
1.8
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
0.2
2.9
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
8.1
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
7.6
2.5
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
1.8
BarnettNelson
Strike Zones
Barnett
Attacking
25 landedAbsorbing
18 absorbedNelson
Attacking
18 landedAbsorbing
25 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Barnett targets the body (52% of attacks) — Nelson absorbs 52% of strikes there
🎯Nelson targets the head (61% of attacks) — Barnett absorbs 61% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Barnett
RND
Nelson
0/0R00/0
Barnett · Last 5
W · Sub · R3
Andrei ArlovskiSubmission
UFC Fight Night: Arlovski vs. Barnett · 2016-09
L · Sub · R2
Ben RothwellSubmission
UFC on FOX: Johnson vs. Bader · 2016-01
W · Dec · R5
Roy NelsonDecision
UFC Fight Night: Barnett vs Nelson · 2015-09
L · KO · R1
Travis BrowneKO/TKO
UFC 168: Weidman vs Silva 2 · 2013-12
W · KO · R1
Frank MirKO/TKO
UFC 164: Henderson vs Pettis 2 · 2013-08
Nelson · Last 5
L · Dec · R3
Alexander VolkovDecision
UFC on FOX: Johnson vs. Reis · 2017-04
W · KO · R2
Antonio SilvaKO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Cyborg vs. Lansberg · 2016-09
L · Dec · R3
Derrick LewisDecision
UFC Fight Night: Dos Anjos vs. Alvarez · 2016-07
W · Dec · R3
Jared RosholtDecision
UFC Fight Night: Hendricks vs Thompson · 2016-02
L · Dec · R5
Josh BarnettDecision
UFC Fight Night: Barnett vs Nelson · 2015-09