UFC Fight Night: Barnett vs Nelson
Saitama, Japan
26 Sept 2015
Heavyweight
VS
58%
Barnett
42%
Nelson
Win Probability
Decision
Round 5 · 5:00
JB
Josh Barnett
"The Warmaster"
35 – 8
6'3"78" reachOrthodox48 yrsKnockout Artist
CFR 25
RN
Roy Nelson
"Big Country"
22 – 14
Knockout Artist49 yrsOrthodox73" reach6'0"
CFR 19

Combatrics Intelligence

Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics

Edge: Barnett

This is a genuine toss-up — Barnett at 58% vs Nelson at 42% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.

Key angles

Barnett has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.

Risk flags

Barnett's chin rating of 44 flags durability concerns based on KO history.

Nelson has a chin rating of 60 — a potential KO vulnerability.

Barnett
Nelson
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
6'3"+
Height
6'0"
78"+
Reach
73"
48+
Age
49
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Barnett
Nelson
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
25.3
18.5
66.2
Performance Avg
55.6
64
Quality of Victory
61
100
Momentum Score
26
Barnett
Nelson
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
2.1
1.0
61%
Strike Accuracy
40%
7.1
Striking Style Score (/10)
9.8
4 KOs
KO Finishes
8 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
12
Head
11
13
Body
7
0
Leg
0
RangeRange
8Distance6
17Clinch10
0Ground2
Barnett
Nelson
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
2.6
/ 10
0.3
/ 10
1.8
Wrestling Style (/10)
0.2
2.9
Submission Style (/10)
0.0
2
Submission wins
0
Per-fight takedown stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Barnett
Nelson
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
44
60
KO risk
Verdict
Moderate
2
KO/TKO Losses
1
1
Sub Losses
0
Avg R1.5 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R2.0 stoppage
3 fights ago
Last KO loss
6 fights ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
10/43 fights
Chin rating based on
19/36 fights
Barnett
Nelson
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
100
26
W · Sub · R3
L · Sub · R2
W · Dec · R5
L · KO · R1
W · KO · R1
Last 5
L · Dec · R3
W · KO · R2
L · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R5
Barnett
Nelson
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
86%
89%
4
KO / TKO Wins
8
2
Submission Wins
0
1
Decision Wins
1

Style Fingerprint

Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10

Barnett
Nelson
Striking7.1 / 9.8Volume2.5 / 1.8Grappling2.6 / 0.3Wrestling1.8 / 0.2Submission2.9 / 0.0Pressure8.1 / 7.6
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
7.1
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
9.8
2.6
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
0.3
1.8
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
0.2
2.9
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
8.1
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
7.6
2.5
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
1.8
Barnett
Strike Zones
Nelson
Barnett
Attacking
12HEAD13BODY0LEGS25 landed
Absorbing
11HEAD7BODY0LEGS18 absorbed
Nelson
Attacking
11HEAD7BODY0LEGS18 landed
Absorbing
12HEAD13BODY0LEGS25 absorbed
Targeting Overlap
🎯Barnett targets the body (52% of attacks) — Nelson absorbs 52% of strikes there
🎯Nelson targets the head (61% of attacks) — Barnett absorbs 61% of strikes there

Round by Round

This fight · per-round breakdown

Barnett
RND
Nelson
0/0R00/0

Barnett · QOF Timeline

Avg: 4.3
0105.2W2.8L5.0W5.2W5.1W5.0W1.5L4.5W2.8L6.0W2000-112001-112013-122016-09
WinLossTrend

Nelson · QOF Timeline

Avg: 5.3
0105.0W5.0W5.5L5.5L5.5W5.5L5.0W5.0W5.0W6.6L5.5L5.0W2.1L5.5L5.5L4.5W6.7L5.2W6.8L2009-122012-022013-102016-022017-04
WinLossTrend

Barnett · Last 5

W · Sub · R3
Andrei ArlovskiRating 6
Submission
UFC Fight Night: Arlovski vs. Barnett · 2016-09
L · Sub · R2
Ben RothwellRating 2.8
Submission
UFC on FOX: Johnson vs. Bader · 2016-01
W · Dec · R5
Roy NelsonRating 4.5
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Barnett vs Nelson · 2015-09
L · KO · R1
Travis BrowneRating 1.5
KO/TKO
UFC 168: Weidman vs Silva 2 · 2013-12
W · KO · R1
Frank MirRating 5
KO/TKO
UFC 164: Henderson vs Pettis 2 · 2013-08

Nelson · Last 5

L · Dec · R3
Alexander VolkovRating 6.8
Decision
UFC on FOX: Johnson vs. Reis · 2017-04
W · KO · R2
Antonio SilvaRating 5.2
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Cyborg vs. Lansberg · 2016-09
L · Dec · R3
Derrick LewisRating 6.7
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Dos Anjos vs. Alvarez · 2016-07
W · Dec · R3
Jared RosholtRating 4.5
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Hendricks vs Thompson · 2016-02
L · Dec · R5
Josh BarnettRating 5.5
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Barnett vs Nelson · 2015-09

News & Media

Josh Barnett · Roy Nelson
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