METRICS GUIDE
Every stat on this page, explained
All stats are calculated from official fight data. Style scores are Combatrics proprietary ratings updated after every event.
★ Championship Bout · Ultimate Fighter 5 Lightweight Tournament
The Ultimate Fighter: Team Pulver vs. Team Penn Finale
Las Vegas, USA
23 Jun 2007
Ultimate Fighter 5 Lightweight Tournament
VS
70%
Diaz
30%
Gamburyan
Win Probability
Submission
Round 2 · 0:20
★ Official Result
Nate DiazwinsSubmissionR2 · 0:20
def. Manvel Gamburyan · The Ultimate Fighter: Team Pulver vs. Team Penn Finale
Fight Report
Pre-fight analysis · prediction vs result
Prediction vs Result
We predicted
Diaz
→
Actual result
Diaz wins
Submission · R2
Pre-fight analysis
Diaz is a strong favourite at 70% win probability per the CFR ratings. The data points decisively in one direction.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 20 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Diaz has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 11 points.
Risk flags
Diaz's chin rating of 58 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
Gamburyan has a chin rating of 14 — a potential KO vulnerability.
This Fight — Statistics
Actual stats from this bout
DiazGamburyan
0
Sig. Strikes
0
0.0
Strikes / min (SLpM)
0.0
—
Strike Accuracy
—
Diaz
Gamburyan
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
6'0"+
Height
5'5"
76"+
Reach
67"
41+
Age
45
Southpaw
Stance
Orthodox
Diaz
Gamburyan
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
35.3
15.1
53.4
Performance Avg
40.4
50
Quality of Victory
39
100
Momentum Score
63
Diaz
Gamburyan
Striking
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
2.4
/ 10
0.9
/ 10
7.0
Style: Pressure
4.8
3.2
Style: Volume
4.9
2 KO wins
Finish Rate (strikes)
0 KO wins
Per-minute strike stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Strike targetStrike target
2
Head
1
0
Body
0
0
Leg
0
RangeRange
2Distance1
0Clinch0
0Ground0
Diaz
Gamburyan
Grappling
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
5.6
/ 10
5.2
/ 10
3.9
Wrestling Style (/10)
3.6
6.3
Submission Style (/10)
5.0
10
Submission wins
3
Per-fight takedown stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Diaz
Gamburyan
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
58
14
KO risk
Verdict
2 consec. KOs
1
KO/TKO Losses
3
0
Sub Losses
1
Avg R2.0 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R1.3 stoppage
9 fights ago
Last KO loss
Most recent fight
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
27/35 fights
Chin rating based on
15/25 fights
Diaz
Gamburyan
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
100
63
Current form
2-fight 📉 slide
W · Sub · R4
L · Dec · R5
L · R3
W · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R5
Last 5
L · KO · R2
L · KO · R1
W · Dec · R3
W · Sub · R2
L · Dec · R3
Diaz
Gamburyan
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
75%
50%
2
KO / TKO Wins
0
10
Submission Wins
3
4
Decision Wins
3
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Diaz
Gamburyan
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
2.4
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
0.9
5.6
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
5.2
3.9
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
3.6
6.3
Submission
Submission attack frequency
5.0
7.0
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
4.8
3.2
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
4.9
DiazGamburyan
Strike Zones
Diaz
Attacking
2 landedAbsorbing
1 absorbedGamburyan
Attacking
1 landedAbsorbing
2 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Diaz targets the head (100% of attacks) — Gamburyan absorbs 100% of strikes there
🎯Gamburyan targets the head (100% of attacks) — Diaz absorbs 100% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Diaz
RND
Gamburyan
0/0R00/0
Diaz · Last 5
W · Sub · R4
Tony FergusonSubmission
UFC 279: Diaz vs. Ferguson · 2022-09
L · Dec · R5
Leon EdwardsDecision
UFC 263: Adesanya vs. Vettori 2 · 2021-06
L · R3
Jorge MasvidalUFC 244: Masvidal vs. Diaz · 2019-11
W · Dec · R3
Anthony PettisDecision
UFC 241: Cormier vs. Miocic 2 · 2019-08
L · Dec · R5
Conor McGregorDecision
UFC 202: Diaz vs. McGregor 2 · 2016-08
Gamburyan · Last 5
L · KO · R2
Johnny EduardoKO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Bader vs. Nogueira · 2016-11
L · KO · R1
John DodsonKO/TKO
UFC on FOX: Teixeira vs Evans · 2016-04
W · Dec · R3
Scott JorgensenDecision
UFC Fight Night: Mir vs Duffee · 2015-07
W · Sub · R2
Cody GibsonSubmission
UFC 178: Johnson vs Cariaso · 2014-09
L · Dec · R3
Nik LentzDecision
UFC Fight Night: Brown vs Silva · 2014-05