METRICS GUIDE
Every stat on this page, explained
All stats are calculated from official fight data. Style scores are Combatrics proprietary ratings updated after every event.
★ Championship Bout · Ultimate Fighter 5 Lightweight Tournament
The Ultimate Fighter: Team Pulver vs. Team Penn Finale
Las Vegas, USA
23 Jun 2007
Ultimate Fighter 5 Lightweight Tournament
VS
70%
Diaz
30%
Gamburyan
Win Probability
Submission
Round 2 · 0:20
★ Official Result
Nate DiazwinsSubmissionR2 · 0:20
def. Manvel Gamburyan · The Ultimate Fighter: Team Pulver vs. Team Penn Finale
Fight Report
Pre-fight analysis · prediction vs result
Prediction vs Result
We predicted
Diaz
→
Actual result
Diaz wins
Submission · R2
Pre-fight analysis
Diaz is a strong favourite at 70% win probability per the CFR ratings. The data points decisively in one direction.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 20 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Diaz has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 11 points.
Diaz has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.
Risk flags
Diaz's chin rating of 58 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
Gamburyan has a chin rating of 14 — a potential KO vulnerability.
This Fight — Statistics
Actual stats from this bout
DiazGamburyan
0
Sig. Strikes
0
0.0
Strikes / min (SLpM)
0.0
—
Strike Accuracy
—
Diaz
Gamburyan
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
6'0"+
Height
5'5"
76"+
Reach
67"
41+
Age
45
Southpaw
Stance
Orthodox
Diaz
Gamburyan
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
35.3
15.1
53.4
Performance Avg
40.4
50
Quality of Victory
39
100
Momentum Score
63
Diaz
Gamburyan
Striking
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
1.9
0.7
50%
Strike Accuracy
37%
2.4
Striking Style Score (/10)
0.9
2 KOs
KO Finishes
0 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
2
Head
1
0
Body
0
0
Leg
0
RangeRange
2Distance1
0Clinch0
0Ground0
Diaz
Gamburyan
Grappling
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
—
—
0.1
Sub Attempts / fight
0.1
5.6
Grappling Style Score (/10)
5.2
3.9
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
3.6
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Diaz
Gamburyan
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
58
14
KO risk
Verdict
2 consec. KOs
1
KO/TKO Losses
3
0
Sub Losses
1
Avg R2.0 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R1.3 stoppage
9 fights ago
Last KO loss
Most recent fight
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
27/35 fights
Chin rating based on
15/25 fights
Diaz
Gamburyan
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
100
63
Current form
2-fight 📉 slide
W · Sub · R4
L · Dec · R5
L · R3
W · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R5
Last 5
L · KO · R2
L · KO · R1
W · Dec · R3
W · Sub · R2
L · Dec · R3
Diaz
Gamburyan
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
75%
50%
2
KO / TKO Wins
0
10
Submission Wins
3
4
Decision Wins
3
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Diaz
Gamburyan
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
2.4
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
0.9
5.6
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
5.2
3.9
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
3.6
6.3
Submission
Submission attack frequency
5.0
7.0
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
4.8
3.2
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
4.9
DiazGamburyan
Strike Zones
Diaz
Attacking
2 landedAbsorbing
1 absorbedGamburyan
Attacking
1 landedAbsorbing
2 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Diaz targets the head (100% of attacks) — Gamburyan absorbs 100% of strikes there
🎯Gamburyan targets the head (100% of attacks) — Diaz absorbs 100% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Diaz
RND
Gamburyan
0/0R00/0
Diaz · QOF Timeline
Avg: 5.3WinLossTrend
Gamburyan · QOF Timeline
Avg: 4.3WinLossTrend
Diaz · Last 5
W · Sub · R4
Tony FergusonRating 5.9Submission
UFC 279: Diaz vs. Ferguson · 2022-09
L · Dec · R5
Leon EdwardsRating 6.6Decision
UFC 263: Adesanya vs. Vettori 2 · 2021-06
L · R3
Jorge MasvidalRating 4.8UFC 244: Masvidal vs. Diaz · 2019-11
W · Dec · R3
Anthony PettisRating 4.5Decision
UFC 241: Cormier vs. Miocic 2 · 2019-08
L · Dec · R5
Conor McGregorRating 7.5Decision
UFC 202: Diaz vs. McGregor 2 · 2016-08
Gamburyan · Last 5
L · KO · R2
Johnny EduardoRating 2.8KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Bader vs. Nogueira · 2016-11
L · KO · R1
John DodsonRating 1.5KO/TKO
UFC on FOX: Teixeira vs Evans · 2016-04
W · Dec · R3
Scott JorgensenRating 4.5Decision
UFC Fight Night: Mir vs Duffee · 2015-07
W · Sub · R2
Cody GibsonRating 5.5Submission
UFC 178: Johnson vs Cariaso · 2014-09
L · Dec · R3
Nik LentzRating 5.5Decision
UFC Fight Night: Brown vs Silva · 2014-05