UFC Fight Night: Ngannou vs. Velasquez
Phoenix, USA
17 Feb 2019
Women's Strawweight
VS
48%
Casey
52%
Calvillo
Win Probability
Decision
Round 3 · 5:00
CC
Cortney Casey
"Cast Iron"
10 – 10
5'7"67" reachOrthodox39 yrsWell-Rounded
CFR 28
CC
Cynthia Calvillo
9 – 6
Well-Rounded5-fight slide38 yrsOrthodox64" reach5'4"
CFR 30

Combatrics Intelligence

Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics

Edge: Calvillo

This is a genuine toss-up — Casey at 48% vs Calvillo at 52% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.

Key angles

Calvillo has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.

Risk flags

Calvillo has a chin rating of 48 — a potential KO vulnerability.

Casey
Calvillo
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'7"+
Height
5'4"
67"+
Reach
64"
39
Age
+38
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Casey
Calvillo
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
27.5
29.8
40.3
Performance Avg
42.8
41
Quality of Victory
38
73
Momentum Score
25
Casey
Calvillo
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.7
2.1
39%
Strike Accuracy
42%
2.5
Striking Style Score (/10)
1.0
1 KOs
KO Finishes
0 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
15
Head
16
2
Body
2
10
Leg
4
RangeRange
26Distance22
1Clinch0
0Ground0
Casey
Calvillo
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
0.1
Sub Attempts / fight
—
3.9
Grappling Style Score (/10)
5.2
2.7
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
3.6
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Casey
Calvillo
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
72
48
Never stopped
Verdict
2 consec. KOs
0
KO/TKO Losses
2
1
Sub Losses
0
—
KO round context
Avg R1.5 stoppage
—
Last KO loss
2 fights ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
15/20 fights
Chin rating based on
13/15 fights
Casey
Calvillo
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
73
25
Current form
5-fight 📉 slide
L · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
L · Sub · R3
W · Sub · R1
Last 5
L · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
L · KO · R2
L · KO · R1
L · Dec · R3
Casey
Calvillo
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
50%
50%
1
KO / TKO Wins
0
2
Submission Wins
3
3
Decision Wins
3

Style Fingerprint

Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10

Casey
Calvillo
Striking2.5 / 1.0Volume4.8 / 5.0Grappling3.9 / 5.2Wrestling2.7 / 3.6Submission3.3 / 5.0Pressure4.7 / 5.0
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
2.5
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
1.0
3.9
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
5.2
2.7
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
3.6
3.3
Submission
Submission attack frequency
5.0
4.7
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
5.0
4.8
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
5.0
Casey
Strike Zones
Calvillo
Casey
Attacking
15HEAD2BODY10LEGS27 landed
Absorbing
16HEAD2BODY4LEGS22 absorbed
Calvillo
Attacking
16HEAD2BODY4LEGS22 landed
Absorbing
15HEAD2BODY10LEGS27 absorbed
Targeting Overlap
🎯Casey targets the head (56% of attacks) — Calvillo absorbs 56% of strikes there
🎯Calvillo targets the head (73% of attacks) — Casey absorbs 73% of strikes there

Round by Round

This fight · per-round breakdown

Casey
RND
Calvillo
0/0R00/0

Casey · QOF Timeline

Avg: 5.2
0105.7L5.5L5.0W5.0W5.5L4.5W5.5L5.5L4.6W5.5L5.0W5.2L6.1L4.5W5.5L2015-072016-112018-082021-032022-07
WinLossTrend

Calvillo · QOF Timeline

Avg: 4.8
0105.0W5.5W4.7W5.8L5.0W4.5W4.5W5.8L2.3L3.2L5.5L6.0L2017-032017-122020-062021-112023-04
WinLossTrend

Casey · Last 5

L · Dec · R3
Antonina ShevchenkoRating 5.5
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Dos Anjos vs. Fiziev · 2022-07
W · Dec · R3
Liana JojuaRating 4.5
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Holloway vs. Rodriguez · 2021-11
L · Dec · R3
JJ AldrichRating 6.1
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Edwards vs. Muhammad · 2021-03
L · Sub · R3
Gillian RobertsonRating 5.2
Submission
UFC Fight Night: Blaydes vs. Volkov · 2020-06
W · Sub · R1
Mara Romero BorellaRating 5
Submission
UFC Fight Night: Overeem vs. Harris · 2020-05

Calvillo · Last 5

L · Dec · R3
Loopy GodinezRating 6
Decision
UFC 287: Pereira vs. Adesanya 2 · 2023-04
L · Dec · R3
Nina NunesRating 5.5
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Vera vs. Cruz · 2022-08
L · KO · R2
Andrea LeeRating 3.2
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Holloway vs. Rodriguez · 2021-11
L · KO · R1
Jessica AndradeRating 2.3
KO/TKO
UFC 266: Volkanovski vs. Ortega · 2021-09
L · Dec · R3
Katlyn CerminaraRating 5.8
Decision
UFC 255: Figueiredo vs. Perez · 2020-11

News & Media

Cortney Casey · Cynthia Calvillo
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