UFC 283: Teixeira vs. Hill
Rio de Janeiro, Brazil
21 Jan 2023
Bantamweight
VS
55%
Lacerda
45%
Stamann
Win Probability
Decision
Round 3 · 5:00
Combatrics Intelligence
Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics
Edge: Lacerda
This is a genuine toss-up — Lacerda at 55% vs Stamann at 45% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 8 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Lacerda has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 20 points.
Stamann has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.
Risk flags
Stamann has a chin rating of 56 — a potential KO vulnerability.
Lacerda
Stamann
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'7"+
Height
5'6"
71"+
Reach
64"
33+
Age
36
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Lacerda
Stamann
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
44.0
36.0
39.7
Performance Avg
38.0
50
Quality of Victory
30
22
Momentum Score
53
Lacerda
Stamann
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.4
1.7
41%
Strike Accuracy
50%
0.5
Striking Style Score (/10)
2.4
0 KOs
KO Finishes
1 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
5
Head
14
12
Body
4
1
Leg
2
RangeRange
18Distance20
0Clinch0
0Ground0
Lacerda
Stamann
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
0.3
Sub Attempts / fight
—
8.0
Grappling Style Score (/10)
2.1
5.6
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
1.4
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Lacerda
Stamann
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
74
56
Moderate
Verdict
Never stopped
1
KO/TKO Losses
0
0
Sub Losses
3
Avg R2.0 stoppage
KO round context
—
2 fights ago
Last KO loss
—
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
4/17 fights
Chin rating based on
15/29 fights
Lacerda
Stamann
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
22
53
Current form
3-fight 📉 slide
L · Dec · R3
W · Sub · R2
L · KO · R2
L · Dec · R3
Last 5
L · Sub · R1
L · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
W · KO · R1
Lacerda
Stamann
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
100%
14%
0
KO / TKO Wins
1
1
Submission Wins
0
0
Decision Wins
6
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Lacerda
Stamann
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
0.5
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
2.4
8.0
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
2.1
5.6
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
1.4
10.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
7.8
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
2.5
0.5
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
7.9
LacerdaStamann
Strike Zones
Lacerda
Attacking
18 landedAbsorbing
20 absorbedStamann
Attacking
20 landedAbsorbing
18 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Lacerda targets the body (67% of attacks) — Stamann absorbs 67% of strikes there
🎯Stamann targets the head (70% of attacks) — Lacerda absorbs 70% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Lacerda
RND
Stamann
0/0R00/0
Lacerda · QOF Timeline
Avg: 5.3WinLossTrend
Stamann · QOF Timeline
Avg: 4.7WinLossTrend
Lacerda · Last 4
L · Dec · R3
Hecher SosaRating 6.8Decision
UFC Fight Night: Emmett vs. Vallejos · 2026-03
W · Sub · R2
Saimon OliveiraRating 5.2Submission
UFC Fight Night: Oliveira vs. Gamrot · 2025-10
L · KO · R2
Da'Mon BlackshearRating 3.8KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Kara-France vs. Albazi · 2023-06
L · Dec · R3
Cody StamannRating 5.5Decision
UFC 283: Teixeira vs. Hill · 2023-01
Stamann · Last 5
L · Sub · R1
Da'Mon BlackshearRating 2.5Submission
UFC Fight Night: Magny vs. Prates · 2024-11
L · Dec · R3
Taylor LapilusRating 6.2Decision
UFC Fight Night: Cannonier vs. Imavov · 2024-06
L · Dec · R3
Douglas Silva de AndradeRating 5.7Decision
UFC Fight Night: Rozenstruik vs. Almeida · 2023-05
W · Dec · R3
Luan LacerdaRating 5Decision
UFC 283: Teixeira vs. Hill · 2023-01
W · KO · R1
Eddie WinelandRating 5KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Kattar vs. Emmett · 2022-06