UFC on FOX: Henderson vs Melendez
San Jose, USA
20 Apr 2013
Middleweight
VS
47%
Carmont
53%
Larkin
Win Probability
Decision
Round 3 · 5:00
FC
Francis Carmont
"Limitless"
25 – 12
6'3"78" reachOrthodox44 yrs3-fight slideWell-Rounded
CFR 18
LL
Lorenz Larkin
"The Monsoon"
18 – 6
Striker2-fight win streak39 yrsOrthodox72" reach5'11"
CFR 21

Combatrics Intelligence

Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics

Edge: Larkin

This is a genuine toss-up — Carmont at 47% vs Larkin at 53% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.

Key angles

Larkin has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 12 points.

Larkin has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.

Carmont
Larkin
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
6'3"+
Height
5'11"
78"+
Reach
72"
44
Age
+39
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Carmont
Larkin
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
18.4
20.5
46.6
Performance Avg
47.0
33
Quality of Victory
45
78
Momentum Score
92
Carmont
Larkin
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
0.8
1.9
50%
Strike Accuracy
50%
1.3
Striking Style Score (/10)
7.0
0 KOs
KO Finishes
3 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
2
Head
1
1
Body
0
0
Leg
2
RangeRange
2Distance2
1Clinch0
0Ground1
Carmont
Larkin
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
—
Sub Attempts / fight
0.1
4.3
Grappling Style Score (/10)
1.0
3.0
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
0.7
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Carmont
Larkin
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
74
70
Moderate
Verdict
Moderate
1
KO/TKO Losses
1
0
Sub Losses
0
Avg R2.0 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R1.0 stoppage
Most recent fight
Last KO loss
6 fights ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
9/37 fights
Chin rating based on
10/24 fights
Carmont
Larkin
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
78
92
3-fight 📉 slide
Current form
2-fight 🔥 win streak
L · KO · R2
L · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
Last 5
W · KO · R1
W · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
W · KO · R2
W · KO · R1
Carmont
Larkin
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
33%
60%
0
KO / TKO Wins
3
2
Submission Wins
0
4
Decision Wins
2

Style Fingerprint

Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10

Carmont
Larkin
Striking1.3 / 7.0Volume6.7 / 4.2Grappling4.3 / 1.0Wrestling3.0 / 0.7Submission3.3 / 0.0Pressure4.3 / 5.7
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
1.3
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
7.0
4.3
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
1.0
3.0
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
0.7
3.3
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
4.3
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
5.7
6.7
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
4.2
Carmont
Strike Zones
Larkin
Carmont
Attacking
2HEAD1BODY0LEGS3 landed
Absorbing
1HEAD0BODY2LEGS3 absorbed
Larkin
Attacking
1HEAD0BODY2LEGS3 landed
Absorbing
2HEAD1BODY0LEGS3 absorbed
Targeting Overlap
🎯Carmont targets the head (67% of attacks) — Larkin absorbs 67% of strikes there
🎯Larkin targets the legs (67% of attacks) — Carmont absorbs 67% of strikes there

Round by Round

This fight · per-round breakdown

Carmont
RND
Larkin
0/0R00/0

Carmont · QOF Timeline

Avg: 4.7
0104.5W5.2W5.2W4.5W4.5W4.5W5.5L5.5L2.8L2011-102012-112014-022014-08
WinLossTrend

Larkin · QOF Timeline

Avg: 4.9
0105.5L4.5W5.5L1.5L5.8L5.0W5.8W5.5L4.5W5.6W2013-042014-052015-062016-08
WinLossTrend

Carmont · Last 5

L · KO · R2
Thales LeitesRating 2.8
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Henderson vs Dos Anjos · 2014-08
L · Dec · R3
CB DollawayRating 5.5
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Munoz vs Mousasi · 2014-05
L · Dec · R3
Jacare SouzaRating 5.5
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Machida vs Mousasi · 2014-02
W · Dec · R3
Constantinos PhilippouRating 4.5
Decision
UFC 165: Jones vs Gustafsson · 2013-09
W · Dec · R3
Lorenz LarkinRating 4.5
Decision
UFC on FOX: Henderson vs Melendez · 2013-04

Larkin · Last 5

W · KO · R1
Neil MagnyRating 5.6
KO/TKO
UFC 202: Diaz vs. McGregor 2 · 2016-08
W · Dec · R3
Jorge MasvidalRating 4.5
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Almeida vs Garbrandt · 2016-05
L · Dec · R3
Albert TumenovRating 5.5
Decision
UFC 195: Lawler vs Condit · 2016-01
W · KO · R2
Santiago PonzinibbioRating 5.8
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Machida vs Romero · 2015-06
W · KO · R1
John HowardRating 5
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: McGregor vs Siver · 2015-01

News & Media

Francis Carmont · Lorenz Larkin
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