UFC Fight Night: Cerrone vs. Medeiros
Austin, USA
18 Feb 2018
Welterweight
VS
48%
Alves
52%
Millender
Win Probability
KO/TKO
Round 2 · 4:17
TA
Thiago Alves
"Pitbull"
23 – 15
5'9"70" reachOrthodox42 yrs2-fight slideWell-Rounded
CFR 17
CM
Curtis Millender
"Curtious"
17 – 5
Well-Rounded2-fight slide38 yrsOrthodox76" reach6'2"
CFR 18

Combatrics Intelligence

Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics

Edge: Millender

This is a genuine toss-up — Alves at 48% vs Millender at 52% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.

Key angles

Striking split: Alves throws more volume but Millender connects at a higher rate — quality vs quantity.

Risk flags

Alves's chin rating of 6 flags durability concerns based on KO history.

Alves
Millender
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'9"
Height
+6'2"
70"
Reach
+76"
42
Age
+38
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Alves
Millender
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
16.5
18.0
47.3
Performance Avg
45.0
42
Quality of Victory
35
63
Momentum Score
70
Alves
Millender
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.6
1.5
45%
Strike Accuracy
49%
5.8
Striking Style Score (/10)
4.5
7 KOs
KO Finishes
1 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
2
Head
15
3
Body
2
17
Leg
4
RangeRange
22Distance21
0Clinch0
0Ground0
Alves
Millender
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
0.1
Sub Attempts / fight
—
1.5
Grappling Style Score (/10)
1.6
1.0
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
1.1
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Alves
Millender
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
6
86
KO risk
Verdict
Never stopped
2
KO/TKO Losses
0
3
Sub Losses
1
Avg R2.0 stoppage
KO round context
—
4 fights ago
Last KO loss
—
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
27/38 fights
Chin rating based on
5/22 fights
Alves
Millender
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
63
70
2-fight 📉 slide
Current form
2-fight 📉 slide
L · Sub · R1
L · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
L · KO · R2
Last 5
L · Dec · R3
L · Sub · R1
W · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
W · KO · R2
Alves
Millender
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
53%
33%
7
KO / TKO Wins
1
1
Submission Wins
0
7
Decision Wins
2

Style Fingerprint

Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10

Alves
Millender
Striking5.8 / 4.5Volume4.3 / 6.5Grappling1.5 / 1.6Wrestling1.0 / 1.1Submission0.7 / 0.0Pressure5.4 / 4.1
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
5.8
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
4.5
1.5
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
1.6
1.0
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
1.1
0.7
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
5.4
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
4.1
4.3
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
6.5
Alves
Strike Zones
Millender
Alves
Attacking
2HEAD3BODY17LEGS22 landed
Absorbing
15HEAD2BODY4LEGS21 absorbed
Millender
Attacking
15HEAD2BODY4LEGS21 landed
Absorbing
2HEAD3BODY17LEGS22 absorbed
Targeting Overlap
🎯Alves targets the legs (77% of attacks) — Millender absorbs 77% of strikes there
🎯Millender targets the head (71% of attacks) — Alves absorbs 71% of strikes there

Round by Round

This fight · per-round breakdown

Alves
RND
Millender
0/0R00/0
0/0R10/0

Alves · QOF Timeline

Avg: 4.6
0102.8L5.0W5.0W2.8L4.5W5.2W5.2W4.2W5.2W5.2W4.5W5.5L5.5L4.5W5.5L5.0W4.0L4.5W5.2W4.4L5.9L4.5W2.8L5.5L5.1W5.5L1.6L2005-102007-112011-052017-042019-12
WinLossTrend

Millender · QOF Timeline

Avg: 4.7
0105.2W5.1W4.5W2.0L6.6L2018-022018-072018-122019-032019-04
WinLossTrend

Alves · Last 5

L · Sub · R1
Tim MeansRating 1.6
Submission
UFC Fight Night: Overeem vs. Rozenstruik · 2019-12
L · Dec · R3
Laureano StaropoliRating 5.5
Decision
UFC 237: Namajunas vs. Andrade · 2019-05
W · Dec · R3
Max GriffinRating 5.1
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Assuncao vs. Moraes 2 · 2019-02
L · Dec · R3
Aleksei KunchenkoRating 5.5
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Hunt vs. Oleinik · 2018-09
L · KO · R2
Curtis MillenderRating 2.8
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Cerrone vs. Medeiros · 2018-02

Millender · Last 5

L · Dec · R3
Belal MuhammadRating 6.6
Decision
UFC 236: Holloway vs. Poirier 2 · 2019-04
L · Sub · R1
Elizeu Zaleski dos SantosRating 2
Submission
UFC Fight Night: Lewis vs. Dos Santos · 2019-03
W · Dec · R3
Siyar BahadurzadaRating 4.5
Decision
UFC 232: Jones vs. Gustafsson 2 · 2018-12
W · Dec · R3
Max GriffinRating 5.1
Decision
UFC 226: Miocic vs. Cormier · 2018-07
W · KO · R2
Thiago AlvesRating 5.2
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Cerrone vs. Medeiros · 2018-02

News & Media

Thiago Alves · Curtis Millender
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