UFC 57: Liddell vs Couture 3
Las Vegas, USA
4 Feb 2006
Light Heavyweight
VS
46%
Sobral
54%
Arsdale
Win Probability
Submission
Round 1 · 2:21
RS
Renato Sobral
"Babalu"
37 – 11
6'1"75" reachOrthodox50 yrsWell-Rounded
CFR 15
Mv
Mike van Arsdale
8 – 5
Well-Rounded2-fight slide60 yrsSwitch6'2"
CFR 18

Combatrics Intelligence

Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics

Edge: Arsdale

This is a genuine toss-up — Sobral at 46% vs Arsdale at 54% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.

Key angles

Striking split: Arsdale throws more volume but Sobral connects at a higher rate — quality vs quantity.

Risk flags

Sobral's chin rating of 32 flags durability concerns based on KO history.

Sobral
Arsdale
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
6'1"
Height
+6'2"
75"
Reach
50+
Age
60
Orthodox
Stance
Switch
Sobral
Arsdale
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
15.3
18.1
49.2
Performance Avg
43.7
42
Quality of Victory
40
26
Momentum Score
71
Sobral
Arsdale
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
0.8
1.3
55%
Strike Accuracy
40%
1.2
Striking Style Score (/10)
1.0
0 KOs
KO Finishes
0 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
1
Head
1
1
Body
0
7
Leg
0
RangeRange
2Distance1
6Clinch0
1Ground0
Sobral
Arsdale
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
0.2
Sub Attempts / fight
0.5
6.1
Grappling Style Score (/10)
5.2
4.3
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
3.6
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Sobral
Arsdale
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
32
76
2 consec. KOs
Verdict
Never stopped
3
KO/TKO Losses
0
0
Sub Losses
2
Avg R1.3 stoppage
KO round context
—
1 fight ago
Last KO loss
—
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
10/48 fights
Chin rating based on
4/13 fights
Sobral
Arsdale
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
26
71
Current form
2-fight 📉 slide
W · Sub · R2
L · KO · R2
L · KO · R1
W · Sub · R1
W · Sub · R2
Last 5
L · Sub · R1
L · Sub · R3
W · Dec · R3
W · Sub · R1
Sobral
Arsdale
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
67%
50%
0
KO / TKO Wins
0
4
Submission Wins
1
2
Decision Wins
1

Style Fingerprint

Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10

Sobral
Arsdale
Striking1.2 / 1.0Volume3.9 / 5.0Grappling6.1 / 5.2Wrestling4.3 / 3.6Submission6.7 / 5.0Pressure6.5 / 5.0
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
1.2
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
1.0
6.1
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
5.2
4.3
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
3.6
6.7
Submission
Submission attack frequency
5.0
6.5
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
5.0
3.9
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
5.0
Sobral
Strike Zones
Arsdale
Sobral
Attacking
1HEAD1BODY7LEGS9 landed
Absorbing
1HEAD0BODY0LEGS1 absorbed
Arsdale
Attacking
1HEAD0BODY0LEGS1 landed
Absorbing
1HEAD1BODY7LEGS9 absorbed
Targeting Overlap
🎯Sobral targets the legs (78% of attacks) — Arsdale absorbs 78% of strikes there
🎯Arsdale targets the head (100% of attacks) — Sobral absorbs 100% of strikes there

Round by Round

This fight · per-round breakdown

Sobral
RND
Arsdale
0/0R00/0

Sobral · QOF Timeline

Avg: 4.1
0104.5W5.5L4.5W1.5L5.2W5.2W5.0W1.5L2.8L5.2W2000-112002-112006-022007-08
WinLossTrend

Arsdale · QOF Timeline

Avg: 3.8
0105.0W4.5W4.0L1.5L1998-052005-042005-082006-02
WinLossTrend

Sobral · Last 5

W · Sub · R2
David HeathRating 5.2
Submission
UFC 74: Respect · 2007-08
L · KO · R2
Jason LambertRating 2.8
KO/TKO
UFC 68: The Uprising · 2007-03
L · KO · R1
Chuck LiddellRating 1.5
KO/TKO
UFC 62: Liddell vs Sobral · 2006-08
W · Sub · R1
Mike van ArsdaleRating 5
Submission
UFC 57: Liddell vs Couture 3 · 2006-02
W · Sub · R2
Chael SonnenRating 5.2
Submission
UFC 55: Fury · 2005-10

Arsdale · Last 4

L · Sub · R1
Renato SobralRating 1.5
Submission
UFC 57: Liddell vs Couture 3 · 2006-02
L · Sub · R3
Randy CoutureRating 4
Submission
UFC 54: Boiling Point · 2005-08
W · Dec · R3
John MarshRating 4.5
Decision
UFC 52: Couture vs Liddell 2 · 2005-04
W · Sub · R1
Joe PardoRating 5
Submission
UFC 17: Redemption · 1998-05

News & Media

Renato Sobral · Mike van Arsdale
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