UFC Fight Night: Holloway vs. Kattar
Abu Dhabi, United Arab Emirates
16 Jan 2021
Middleweight
VS
56%
Soriano
44%
Todorovic
Win Probability
KO/TKO
Round 1 · 4:48
Combatrics Intelligence
Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics
Edge: Soriano
This is a genuine toss-up — Soriano at 56% vs Todorovic at 44% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 12 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Todorovic has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 12 points.
Striking split: Todorovic throws more volume but Soriano connects at a higher rate — quality vs quantity.
Risk flags
Soriano's chin rating of 62 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
Todorovic has a chin rating of 8 — a potential KO vulnerability.
Soriano
Todorovic
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'11"
Height
+6'1"
72"
Reach
+74"
33
Age
+32
Southpaw
Stance
Orthodox
Soriano
Todorovic
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
54.8
43.1
52.0
Performance Avg
49.6
44
Quality of Victory
56
64
Momentum Score
13
Soriano
Todorovic
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
2.0
3.4
55%
Strike Accuracy
55%
7.0
Striking Style Score (/10)
8.3
4 KOs
KO Finishes
3 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
25
Head
15
4
Body
7
1
Leg
0
RangeRange
21Distance18
4Clinch4
5Ground0
Soriano
Todorovic
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
1.0
/ 10
2.0
/ 10
0.7
Wrestling Style (/10)
1.4
0.0
Submission Style (/10)
2.5
0
Submission wins
1
Per-fight takedown stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Soriano
Todorovic
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
62
8
Moderate
Verdict
2 consec. KOs
1
KO/TKO Losses
4
1
Sub Losses
0
Avg R2.0 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R1.0 stoppage
5 fights ago
Last KO loss
2 fights ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
11/17 fights
Chin rating based on
10/19 fights
Soriano
Todorovic
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
64
13
4-fight 🔥 win streak
Current form
W · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
W · KO · R1
W · Dec · R3
L · Sub · R2
Last 5
W · Sub · R1
L · Dec · R3
L · KO · R1
L · KO · R1
W · KO · R2
Soriano
Todorovic
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
57%
100%
4
KO / TKO Wins
3
0
Submission Wins
1
3
Decision Wins
0
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Soriano
Todorovic
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
7.0
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
8.3
1.0
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
2.0
0.7
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
1.4
0.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
2.5
5.9
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
8.2
4.7
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
0.8
SorianoTodorovic
Strike Zones
Soriano
Attacking
30 landedAbsorbing
22 absorbedTodorovic
Attacking
22 landedAbsorbing
30 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Soriano targets the head (83% of attacks) — Todorovic absorbs 83% of strikes there
🎯Todorovic targets the head (68% of attacks) — Soriano absorbs 68% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Soriano
RND
Todorovic
0/0R00/0
0/0R20/0
Soriano · QOF Timeline
Avg: 5.2WinLossTrend
Todorovic · QOF Timeline
Avg: 4.5WinLossTrend
Soriano · Last 5
W · Dec · R3
Ramiz BrahimajRating 6Decision
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W · KO · R1
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W · Dec · R3
Miguel BaezaRating 5.1Decision
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L · Sub · R2
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Todorovic · Last 5
W · Sub · R1
Jose Daniel MedinaRating 5Submission
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L · Dec · R3
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Mansur Abdul-MalikRating 3.4KO/TKO
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