UFC 309: Jones vs. Miocic
New York City, USA
16 Nov 2024
Lightweight
VS
52%
Miller
48%
Jackson
Win Probability
Submission
Round 1 · 2:44
Jim
Jim Miller
"A-10"
39 – 19
5'8"71" reachSouthpaw42 yrsWell-Rounded
CFR 44
Damon
Damon Jackson
"The Leech"
23 – 8
Well-Rounded2-fight slide37 yrsSwitch71" reach5'11"
CFR 41

Combatrics Intelligence

Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics

Edge: Miller

This is a genuine toss-up — Miller at 52% vs Jackson at 48% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.

Key angles

Jackson has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.

Risk flags

Miller's chin rating of 0 flags durability concerns based on KO history.

Jackson has a chin rating of 28 — a potential KO vulnerability.

Miller
Jackson
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'8"
Height
+5'11"
71"
Reach
71"
42
Age
+37
Southpaw
Stance
Switch
Miller
Jackson
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
43.5
40.5
51.5
Performance Avg
43.0
45
Quality of Victory
38
28
Momentum Score
59
Miller
Jackson
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.0
1.2
41%
Strike Accuracy
43%
3.4
Striking Style Score (/10)
2.7
6 KOs
KO Finishes
1 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
5
Head
8
2
Body
6
3
Leg
2
RangeRange
9Distance16
1Clinch0
0Ground0
Miller
Jackson
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
0.0
Sub Attempts / fight
0.6
4.7
Grappling Style Score (/10)
3.9
3.3
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
2.7
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Miller
Jackson
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
0
28
KO risk
Verdict
KO risk
2
KO/TKO Losses
2
3
Sub Losses
2
Avg R1.5 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R1.5 stoppage
18 fights ago
Last KO loss
4 fights ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
47/58 fights
Chin rating based on
14/31 fights
Miller
Jackson
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
28
59
Current form
2-fight 📉 slide
W · Sub · R1
L · Dec · R3
W · Sub · R1
L · Dec · R3
W · Sub · R3
Last 5
L · Sub · R1
L · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
L · KO · R2
Miller
Jackson
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
71%
50%
6
KO / TKO Wins
1
14
Submission Wins
2
8
Decision Wins
3

Style Fingerprint

Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10

Miller
Jackson
Striking3.4 / 2.7Volume3.5 / 5.0Grappling4.7 / 3.9Wrestling3.3 / 2.7Submission5.0 / 3.3Pressure6.8 / 5.0
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
3.4
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
2.7
4.7
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
3.9
3.3
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
2.7
5.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
3.3
6.8
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
5.0
3.5
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
5.0
Miller
Strike Zones
Jackson
Miller
Attacking
5HEAD2BODY3LEGS10 landed
Absorbing
8HEAD6BODY2LEGS16 absorbed
Jackson
Attacking
8HEAD6BODY2LEGS16 landed
Absorbing
5HEAD2BODY3LEGS10 absorbed
Targeting Overlap
🎯Miller targets the head (50% of attacks) — Jackson absorbs 50% of strikes there
🎯Jackson targets the head (50% of attacks) — Miller absorbs 50% of strikes there

Round by Round

This fight · per-round breakdown

Miller
RND
Jackson
0/0R00/0

Miller · QOF Timeline

Avg: 5.0
0105.5W4.5W5.5L4.5W5.2W5.0W4.5W4.5W6.4W5.5W5.5L5.0W2.1L4.5W5.0W5.0W2.1L6.5L4.5W3.5L5.5L5.0W4.5W4.5W6.8L5.5L5.5L2.4L5.0W2.9L5.0W5.5W5.5L5.2W5.7L6.2L5.2W5.9W5.2W6.4L5.0W5.7W6.2L5.3W6.3L5.4W2008-102012-052017-022021-102026-05
WinLossTrend

Jackson · QOF Timeline

Avg: 4.7
0102.8L5.5W3.9L4.5W5.2W4.5W6.0W3.4L6.7L5.4W6.6L1.9L2014-082021-102022-092024-042024-11
WinLossTrend

Miller · Last 5

W · Sub · R1
Jared GordonRating 5.4
Submission
UFC 328: Chimaev vs. Strickland · 2026-05
L · Dec · R3
Chase HooperRating 6.3
Decision
UFC 314: Volkanovski vs. Lopes · 2025-04
W · Sub · R1
Damon JacksonRating 5.3
Submission
UFC 309: Jones vs. Miocic · 2024-11
L · Dec · R3
King GreenRating 6.2
Decision
UFC 300: Pereira vs. Hill · 2024-04
W · Sub · R3
Gabriel BenitezRating 5.7
Submission
UFC Fight Night: Ankalaev vs. Walker 2 · 2024-01

Jackson · Last 5

L · Sub · R1
Jim MillerRating 1.9
Submission
UFC 309: Jones vs. Miocic · 2024-11
L · Dec · R3
Chepe MariscalRating 6.6
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Tybura vs. Spivac 2 · 2024-08
W · Dec · R3
Alexander HernandezRating 5.4
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Allen vs. Curtis 2 · 2024-04
L · Dec · R3
Billy QuarantilloRating 6.7
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Sandhagen vs. Font · 2023-08
L · KO · R2
Dan IgeRating 3.4
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Strickland vs. Imavov · 2023-01

News & Media

Jim Miller · Damon Jackson
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