UFC 246: McGregor vs. Cowboy
Las Vegas, USA
18 Jan 2020
Women's Bantamweight
VS
44%
Holm
56%
Pennington
Win Probability
Decision
Round 3 · 5:00
Holly
Holly Holm
"The Preacher's Daughter"
15 – 7
5'8"69" reachSouthpaw44 yrsWell-Rounded
CFR 37
Raquel
Raquel Pennington
"Rocky"
16 – 10
Well-Rounded37 yrsOrthodox67" reach5'7"
CFR 47

Combatrics Intelligence

Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics

Edge: Pennington

This is a genuine toss-up — Holm at 44% vs Pennington at 56% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.

Key angles

The CFR gap of 10 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.

Pennington has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.

Risk flags

Holm's chin rating of 46 flags durability concerns based on KO history.

Pennington has a chin rating of 68 — a potential KO vulnerability.

Holm
Pennington
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'8"+
Height
5'7"
69"+
Reach
67"
44
Age
+37
Southpaw
Stance
Orthodox
Holm
Pennington
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
37.1
46.8
46.5
Performance Avg
46.8
42
Quality of Victory
32
30
Momentum Score
80
Holm
Pennington
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.0
1.4
42%
Strike Accuracy
50%
3.6
Striking Style Score (/10)
1.4
2 KOs
KO Finishes
0 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
8
Head
5
2
Body
9
5
Leg
0
RangeRange
14Distance6
1Clinch8
0Ground0
Holm
Pennington
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
1.8
/ 10
3.7
/ 10
1.3
Wrestling Style (/10)
2.6
0.0
Submission Style (/10)
2.3
0
Submission wins
3
Per-fight takedown stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Holm
Pennington
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
46
68
KO risk
Verdict
Moderate
1
KO/TKO Losses
1
2
Sub Losses
0
Avg R1.0 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R5.0 stoppage
6 fights ago
Last KO loss
10 fights ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
16/22 fights
Chin rating based on
19/26 fights
Holm
Pennington
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
30
80
L · Sub · R2
Upcoming
W · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R5
W · Dec · R5
Last 5
L · Dec · R5
W · Dec · R5
W · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
W · Sub · R2
Holm
Pennington
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
25%
23%
2
KO / TKO Wins
0
0
Submission Wins
3
6
Decision Wins
10

Style Fingerprint

Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10

Holm
Pennington
Striking3.6 / 1.4Volume7.1 / 7.5Grappling1.8 / 3.7Wrestling1.3 / 2.6Submission0.0 / 2.3Pressure3.4 / 3.7
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
3.6
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
1.4
1.8
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
3.7
1.3
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
2.6
0.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
2.3
3.4
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
3.7
7.1
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
7.5
Holm
Strike Zones
Pennington
Holm
Attacking
8HEAD2BODY5LEGS15 landed
Absorbing
5HEAD9BODY0LEGS14 absorbed
Pennington
Attacking
5HEAD9BODY0LEGS14 landed
Absorbing
8HEAD2BODY5LEGS15 absorbed
Targeting Overlap
🎯Holm targets the head (53% of attacks) — Pennington absorbs 53% of strikes there
🎯Pennington targets the body (64% of attacks) — Holm absorbs 64% of strikes there

Round by Round

This fight · per-round breakdown

Holm
RND
Pennington
0/0R00/0

Holm · QOF Timeline

Avg: 5.1
0105.1W4.5W5.1W4.9L6.9L6.7L5.2W5.5L4.5W2.7L5.1W5.3W5.9L4.6W4.9L2015-022016-072018-062022-052024-04
WinLossTrend

Pennington · QOF Timeline

Avg: 5.4
0104.5W6.3L5.0W5.6L6.0W4.5W4.5W5.4W5.2L6.7L5.3W5.6L4.5W4.5W6.6W4.5W4.9W5.1W7.0L2013-112016-042019-072022-042024-10
WinLossTrend

Holm · Last 5

L · Sub · R2
Kayla HarrisonRating 4.9
Submission
UFC 300: Pereira vs. Hill · 2024-04
Upcoming
Mayra Bueno Silva
UFC Fight Night: Holm vs. Bueno Silva · 2023-07
W · Dec · R3
Yana SantosRating 4.6
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Vera vs. Sandhagen · 2023-03
L · Dec · R5
Ketlen VieiraRating 5.9
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Holm vs. Vieira · 2022-05
W · Dec · R5
Irene AldanaRating 5.3
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Holm vs. Aldana · 2020-10

Pennington · Last 5

L · Dec · R5
Julianna PenaRating 7
Decision
UFC 307: Pereira vs. Rountree Jr. · 2024-10
W · Dec · R5
Mayra Bueno SilvaRating 5.1
Decision
UFC 297: Strickland vs. Du Plessis · 2024-01
W · Dec · R3
Ketlen VieiraRating 4.9
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Strickland vs. Imavov · 2023-01
W · Dec · R3
Aspen LaddRating 4.5
Decision
UFC 273: Volkanovski vs. The Korean Zombie · 2022-04
W · Sub · R2
Macy ChiassonRating 6.6
Submission
UFC Fight Night: Lewis vs. Daukaus · 2021-12

News & Media

Holly Holm · Raquel Pennington
← Back to fights