METRICS GUIDE

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All stats are calculated from official fight data. Style scores are Combatrics proprietary ratings updated after every event.

UFC 246: McGregor vs. Cowboy
Las Vegas, USA
18 Jan 2020
Women's Bantamweight
VS
44%
Holm
56%
Pennington
Win Probability
Decision
Round 3 · 5:00
Holly
Holly Holm
"The Preacher's Daughter"
15 – 7
5'8"69" reachSouthpaw44 yrsWell-Rounded
CFR 37
Raquel
Raquel Pennington
"Rocky"
16 – 10
Well-Rounded38 yrsOrthodox67" reach5'7"
CFR 47
★ Official Result
Holly HolmwinsDecisionR3 · 5:00
def. Raquel Pennington · UFC 246: McGregor vs. Cowboy

Fight Report

Pre-fight analysis · prediction vs result

Prediction vs Result
We predicted
Pennington
→
Actual result
Holm wins
Decision · R3
Pre-fight analysis

This is a genuine toss-up — Holm at 44% vs Pennington at 56% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.

Key angles

The CFR gap of 10 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.

Risk flags

Holm's chin rating of 46 flags durability concerns based on KO history.

Pennington has a chin rating of 68 — a potential KO vulnerability.

This Fight — Statistics

Actual stats from this bout
HolmPennington
0
Sig. Strikes
0
0.0
Strikes / min (SLpM)
0.0
—
Strike Accuracy
—
Holm
Pennington
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'8"+
Height
5'7"
69"+
Reach
67"
44
Age
+38
Southpaw
Stance
Orthodox
Holm
Pennington
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
37.1
46.8
46.5
Performance Avg
46.8
42
Quality of Victory
32
30
Momentum Score
80
Holm
Pennington
Striking
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
3.6
/ 10
1.4
/ 10
3.4
Style: Pressure
3.7
7.1
Style: Volume
7.5
2 KO wins
Finish Rate (strikes)
0 KO wins
Per-minute strike stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Strike targetStrike target
8
Head
5
2
Body
9
5
Leg
0
RangeRange
14Distance6
1Clinch8
0Ground0
Holm
Pennington
Grappling
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
1.8
/ 10
3.7
/ 10
1.3
Wrestling Style (/10)
2.6
0.0
Submission Style (/10)
2.3
0
Submission wins
3
Per-fight takedown stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Holm
Pennington
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
46
68
KO risk
Verdict
Moderate
1
KO/TKO Losses
1
2
Sub Losses
0
Avg R1.0 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R5.0 stoppage
6 fights ago
Last KO loss
10 fights ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
16/22 fights
Chin rating based on
19/26 fights
Holm
Pennington
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
30
80
L · Sub · R2
Upcoming
W · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R5
W · Dec · R5
Last 5
L · Dec · R5
W · Dec · R5
W · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
W · Sub · R2
Holm
Pennington
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
25%
23%
2
KO / TKO Wins
0
0
Submission Wins
3
6
Decision Wins
10

Style Fingerprint

Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10

Holm
Pennington
Striking3.6 / 1.4Volume7.1 / 7.5Grappling1.8 / 3.7Wrestling1.3 / 2.6Submission0.0 / 2.3Pressure3.4 / 3.7
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
3.6
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
1.4
1.8
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
3.7
1.3
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
2.6
0.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
2.3
3.4
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
3.7
7.1
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
7.5
Holm
Strike Zones
Pennington
Holm
Attacking
8HEAD2BODY5LEGS15 landed
Absorbing
5HEAD9BODY0LEGS14 absorbed
Pennington
Attacking
5HEAD9BODY0LEGS14 landed
Absorbing
8HEAD2BODY5LEGS15 absorbed
Targeting Overlap
🎯Holm targets the head (53% of attacks) — Pennington absorbs 53% of strikes there
🎯Pennington targets the body (64% of attacks) — Holm absorbs 64% of strikes there

Round by Round

This fight · per-round breakdown

Holm
RND
Pennington
0/0R00/0

Holm · Last 5

L · Sub · R2
Kayla Harrison
Submission
UFC 300: Pereira vs. Hill · 2024-04
Upcoming
Mayra Bueno Silva
UFC Fight Night: Holm vs. Bueno Silva · 2023-07
W · Dec · R3
Yana Santos
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Vera vs. Sandhagen · 2023-03
L · Dec · R5
Ketlen Vieira
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Holm vs. Vieira · 2022-05
W · Dec · R5
Irene Aldana
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Holm vs. Aldana · 2020-10

Pennington · Last 5

L · Dec · R5
Julianna Pena
Decision
UFC 307: Pereira vs. Rountree Jr. · 2024-10
W · Dec · R5
Mayra Bueno Silva
Decision
UFC 297: Strickland vs. Du Plessis · 2024-01
W · Dec · R3
Ketlen Vieira
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Strickland vs. Imavov · 2023-01
W · Dec · R3
Aspen Ladd
Decision
UFC 273: Volkanovski vs. The Korean Zombie · 2022-04
W · Sub · R2
Macy Chiasson
Submission
UFC Fight Night: Lewis vs. Daukaus · 2021-12

News & Media

Holly Holm · Raquel Pennington
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