METRICS GUIDE
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All stats are calculated from official fight data. Style scores are Combatrics proprietary ratings updated after every event.
Fight Report
Pre-fight analysis · prediction vs result
A 23-year-old with two UFC fights and no wins in them against a debutant the model had never seen, in the least knowable bout on the card.
This is the bout on the card where honesty about the data matters more than any read on the fight. Rafael Tobias has two recorded UFC fights and a composite rating of 6.1. Lucas Fernando had none at all going in. Between them they offer the model one meaningful piece of prior information — Tobias losing a decision to Diyar Nurgozhay at UFC 326 in March 2026 — and everything else has to be inferred…
Tobias (14-2) had one recorded UFC fight before this, a decision loss to Diyar Nurgozhay at UFC 326 in March 2026 that went the full three rounds. At 23 he was the younger man by six years. His metrics are effectively blank — a 6.1 composite, 0.0 across every style score, and a 76.0 chin rating built on two recorded appearances.
Fernando (14-3) came in with no prior recorded UFC appearance, which means every rating attached to him now derives from this fight alone. At 29 and 190.5cm with 203.2cm of reach, he was the bigger man in both dimensions that could be measured before the cage door shut.
A 15.2cm reach edge for Fernando against a man whose 188.0cm reach exactly matches his height
Tobias rated 6.1 on two recorded UFC fights, neither of them a win
Fernando entering with no recorded promotional appearance — every metric on him is unpopulated
Six years of age between them at 29 and 23, in a division where the older man usually carries more power
Tobias's 76.0 chin rating, which had never been meaningfully tested
Tobias is 14-2 at 23 and had already banked three UFC rounds; a debutant's regional record can collapse on the step up
The pick rests on reach and almost nothing else, because no style data exists for either fighter
A 0.56 probability with a 6.1 composite on one side and no rating at all on the other is barely a pick
This Fight — Statistics
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown