METRICS GUIDE
Every stat on this page, explained
All stats are calculated from official fight data. Style scores are Combatrics proprietary ratings updated after every event.
UFC Fight Night: Holm vs. Bueno Silva
Las Vegas, USA
15 Jul 2023
Lightweight
VS
91%
Elder
9%
Valdez
Win Probability
Decision
Round 3 · 5:00
★ Official Result
Evan ElderwinsDecisionR3 · 5:00
def. Genaro Valdez · UFC Fight Night: Holm vs. Bueno Silva
Fight Report
Pre-fight analysis · prediction vs result
Prediction vs Result
We predicted
Elder
→
Actual result
Elder wins
Decision · R3
Pre-fight analysis
Elder is a strong favourite at 91% win probability per the CFR ratings. The data points decisively in one direction.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 43 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Elder has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 33 points.
This Fight — Statistics
Actual stats from this bout
ElderValdez
0
Sig. Strikes
0
0.0
Strikes / min (SLpM)
0.0
—
Strike Accuracy
—
Elder
Valdez
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'10"+
Height
5'9"
72"
Reach
72"
29+
Age
34
Switch
Stance
Orthodox
Elder
Valdez
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
47.1
4.4
43.9
Performance Avg
0.0
33
Quality of Victory
0
48
Momentum Score
0
Elder
Valdez
Striking
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
1.2
/ 10
0.0
/ 10
4.1
Style: Pressure
0.0
6.5
Style: Volume
0.0
0 KO wins
Finish Rate (strikes)
0 KO wins
Per-minute strike stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Strike targetStrike target
28
Head
13
2
Body
2
4
Leg
3
RangeRange
34Distance17
0Clinch1
0Ground0
Elder
Valdez
Grappling
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
4.3
/ 10
0.0
/ 10
3.0
Wrestling Style (/10)
0.0
3.3
Submission Style (/10)
0.0
1
Submission wins
0
Per-fight takedown stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Elder
Valdez
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
96
74
Never stopped
Verdict
Moderate
0
KO/TKO Losses
1
0
Sub Losses
0
—
KO round context
Avg R1.0 stoppage
—
Last KO loss
2 fights ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
5/12 fights
Chin rating based on
3/13 fights
Elder
Valdez
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
48
0
3-fight 🔥 win streak
Current form
3-fight 📉 slide
W · Dec · R3
W · Sub · R2
W · Dec · R3
L · R3
L · Dec · R3
Last 5
L · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
L · KO · R1
Elder
Valdez
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
33%
0%
0
KO / TKO Wins
0
1
Submission Wins
0
2
Decision Wins
0
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Elder
Valdez
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
1.2
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
0.0
4.3
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
0.0
3.0
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
0.0
3.3
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
4.1
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
0.0
6.5
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
0.0
ElderValdez
Strike Zones
Elder
Attacking
34 landedAbsorbing
18 absorbedValdez
Attacking
18 landedAbsorbing
34 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Elder targets the head (82% of attacks) — Valdez absorbs 82% of strikes there
🎯Valdez targets the head (72% of attacks) — Elder absorbs 72% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Elder
RND
Valdez
0/0R00/0
0/0R10/0
Elder · Last 5
W · Dec · R3
Gauge YoungDecision
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W · Sub · R2
Darrius FlowersSubmission
UFC Fight Night: Namajunas vs. Cortez · 2024-07
W · Dec · R3
Genaro ValdezDecision
UFC Fight Night: Holm vs. Bueno Silva · 2023-07
L · R3
Nazim SadykhovUFC Fight Night: Andrade vs. Blanchfield · 2023-02
L · Dec · R3
Preston ParsonsDecision
UFC Fight Night: Lemos vs. Andrade · 2022-04
Valdez · Last 3
L · Dec · R3
Evan ElderDecision
UFC Fight Night: Holm vs. Bueno Silva · 2023-07
L · Dec · R3
Natan LevyDecision
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L · KO · R1
Matt FrevolaKO/TKO
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