UFC Fight Night: Holm vs. Bueno Silva
Las Vegas, USA
15 Jul 2023
Lightweight
VS
91%
Elder
9%
Valdez
Win Probability
Decision
Round 3 · 5:00
Evan
Evan Elder
"The Phenom"
10 – 2
5'10"72" reachSwitch29 yrs3-fight win streakWell-Rounded
CFR 47
GV
Genaro Valdez
"Rayadito"
10 – 3
Well-Rounded3-fight slide34 yrsOrthodox72" reach5'9"
CFR 4

Combatrics Intelligence

Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics

Edge: Elder

Elder is a strong favourite at 91% win probability per the CFR ratings. The data points decisively in one direction.

Key angles

The CFR gap of 43 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.

Elder has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 33 points.

Elder has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.

Elder
Valdez
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'10"+
Height
5'9"
72"
Reach
72"
29+
Age
34
Switch
Stance
Orthodox
Elder
Valdez
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
47.1
4.4
43.9
Performance Avg
0.0
33
Quality of Victory
0
48
Momentum Score
0
Elder
Valdez
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.4
1.1
47%
Strike Accuracy
24%
1.2
Striking Style Score (/10)
0.0
0 KOs
KO Finishes
0 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
28
Head
13
2
Body
2
4
Leg
3
RangeRange
34Distance17
0Clinch1
0Ground0
Elder
Valdez
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
0.2
Sub Attempts / fight
—
4.3
Grappling Style Score (/10)
0.0
3.0
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
0.0
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Elder
Valdez
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
96
74
Never stopped
Verdict
Moderate
0
KO/TKO Losses
1
0
Sub Losses
0
—
KO round context
Avg R1.0 stoppage
—
Last KO loss
2 fights ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
5/12 fights
Chin rating based on
3/13 fights
Elder
Valdez
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
48
0
3-fight 🔥 win streak
Current form
3-fight 📉 slide
W · Dec · R3
W · Sub · R2
W · Dec · R3
L · R3
L · Dec · R3
Last 5
L · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
L · KO · R1
Elder
Valdez
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
33%
0%
0
KO / TKO Wins
0
1
Submission Wins
0
2
Decision Wins
0

Style Fingerprint

Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10

Elder
Valdez
Striking1.2 / 0.0Volume6.5 / 0.0Grappling4.3 / 0.0Wrestling3.0 / 0.0Submission3.3 / 0.0Pressure4.1 / 0.0
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
1.2
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
0.0
4.3
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
0.0
3.0
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
0.0
3.3
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
4.1
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
0.0
6.5
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
0.0
Elder
Strike Zones
Valdez
Elder
Attacking
28HEAD2BODY4LEGS34 landed
Absorbing
13HEAD2BODY3LEGS18 absorbed
Valdez
Attacking
13HEAD2BODY3LEGS18 landed
Absorbing
28HEAD2BODY4LEGS34 absorbed
Targeting Overlap
🎯Elder targets the head (82% of attacks) — Valdez absorbs 82% of strikes there
🎯Valdez targets the head (72% of attacks) — Elder absorbs 72% of strikes there

Round by Round

This fight · per-round breakdown

Elder
RND
Valdez
0/0R00/0
0/0R10/0

Elder · QOF Timeline

Avg: 5.6
0105.5L7.0L4.5W6.0W5.1W2022-042023-022023-072024-072025-04
WinLossTrend

Valdez · QOF Timeline

Avg: 4.4
0101.7L5.5L6.1L2022-012022-122023-07
WinLossTrend

Elder · Last 5

W · Dec · R3
Gauge YoungRating 5.1
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Machado Garry vs. Prates · 2025-04
W · Sub · R2
Darrius FlowersRating 6
Submission
UFC Fight Night: Namajunas vs. Cortez · 2024-07
W · Dec · R3
Genaro ValdezRating 4.5
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Holm vs. Bueno Silva · 2023-07
L · R3
Nazim SadykhovRating 7
UFC Fight Night: Andrade vs. Blanchfield · 2023-02
L · Dec · R3
Preston ParsonsRating 5.5
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Lemos vs. Andrade · 2022-04

Valdez · Last 3

L · Dec · R3
Evan ElderRating 6.1
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Holm vs. Bueno Silva · 2023-07
L · Dec · R3
Natan LevyRating 5.5
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Thompson vs. Holland · 2022-12
L · KO · R1
Matt FrevolaRating 1.7
KO/TKO
UFC 270: Ngannou vs. Gane · 2022-01

News & Media

Evan Elder · Genaro Valdez
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