UFC Fight Night: Woodley vs. Burns
Las Vegas, USA
30 May 2020
Women's Strawweight
VS
88%
Dern
12%
Cifers
Win Probability
Submission
Round 1 · 2:36
Combatrics Intelligence
Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics
Edge: Dern
Dern is a strong favourite at 88% win probability per the CFR ratings. The data points decisively in one direction.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 52 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Dern has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 14 points.
Striking split: Cifers throws more volume but Dern connects at a higher rate — quality vs quantity.
Risk flags
Cifers has a chin rating of 20 — a potential KO vulnerability.
Dern
Cifers
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'4"+
Height
5'1"
63"+
Reach
62"
33
Age
33
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Dern
Cifers
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
59.6
7.9
51.1
Performance Avg
26.4
39
Quality of Victory
25
94
Momentum Score
20
Dern
Cifers
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.2
1.9
44%
Strike Accuracy
44%
1.4
Striking Style Score (/10)
0.6
0 KOs
KO Finishes
0 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
2
Head
3
1
Body
3
2
Leg
1
RangeRange
5Distance3
0Clinch4
0Ground0
Dern
Cifers
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
0.2
Sub Attempts / fight
—
5.0
Grappling Style Score (/10)
2.4
3.5
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
1.7
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Dern
Cifers
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
70
20
Moderate
Verdict
KO risk
1
KO/TKO Losses
2
0
Sub Losses
3
Avg R2.0 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R2.0 stoppage
4 fights ago
Last KO loss
3 fights ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
16/21 fights
Chin rating based on
7/17 fights
Dern
Cifers
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
94
20
3-fight 🔥 win streak
Current form
4-fight 📉 slide
W · Dec · R5
W · Sub · R3
W · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
L · KO · R2
Last 5
L · Sub · R2
L · Sub · R1
L · Sub · R1
L · KO · R2
W · Dec · R3
Dern
Cifers
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
46%
0%
0
KO / TKO Wins
0
5
Submission Wins
0
6
Decision Wins
2
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Dern
Cifers
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
1.4
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
0.6
5.0
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
2.4
3.5
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
1.7
4.5
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
5.2
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
0.9
5.7
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
8.6
DernCifers
Strike Zones
Dern
Attacking
5 landedAbsorbing
7 absorbedCifers
Attacking
7 landedAbsorbing
5 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Dern targets the head (40% of attacks) — Cifers absorbs 40% of strikes there
🎯Cifers targets the head (43% of attacks) — Dern absorbs 43% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Dern
RND
Cifers
0/0R00/0
Dern · QOF Timeline
Avg: 5.2WinLossTrend
Cifers · QOF Timeline
Avg: 3.3WinLossTrend
Dern · Last 5
W · Dec · R5
Virna JandirobaRating 5.2Decision
UFC 321: Aspinall vs. Gane · 2025-10
W · Sub · R3
Amanda RibasRating 5.4Submission
UFC Fight Night: Dern vs. Ribas 2 · 2025-01
W · Dec · R3
Loopy GodinezRating 5Decision
UFC Fight Night: Sandhagen vs. Nurmagomedov · 2024-08
L · Dec · R3
Amanda LemosRating 6.6Decision
UFC 298: Volkanovski vs. Topuria · 2024-02
L · KO · R2
Jessica AndradeRating 3.5KO/TKO
UFC 295: Prochazka vs. Pereira · 2023-11
Cifers · Last 5
L · Sub · R2
Mallory MartinRating 2.8Submission
UFC Fight Night: Smith vs. Rakic · 2020-08
L · Sub · R1
Mariya AgapovaRating 1.8Submission
UFC Fight Night: Eye vs. Calvillo · 2020-06
L · Sub · R1
Mackenzie DernRating 2.7Submission
UFC Fight Night: Woodley vs. Burns · 2020-05
L · KO · R2
Angela HillRating 2.8KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Blaydes vs. Dos Santos · 2020-01
W · Dec · R3
Jodie EsquibelRating 4.5Decision
UFC 241: Cormier vs. Miocic 2 · 2019-08