UFC Fight Night: Cannonier vs. Rodrigues
Las Vegas, USA
15 Feb 2025
Middleweight
VS
45%
Cannonier
55%
Rodrigues
Win Probability
KO/TKO
Round 4 · 0:21
Combatrics Intelligence
Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics
Edge: Rodrigues
This is a genuine toss-up — Cannonier at 45% vs Rodrigues at 55% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 12 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Striking split: Rodrigues throws more volume but Cannonier connects at a higher rate — quality vs quantity.
Risk flags
Cannonier's chin rating of 22 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
Rodrigues has a chin rating of 54 — a potential KO vulnerability.
Cannonier
Rodrigues
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'11"
Height
+6'3"
77"+
Reach
75"
42
Age
+34
Switch
Stance
Orthodox
Cannonier
Rodrigues
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
54.3
66.6
49.3
Performance Avg
59.3
46
Quality of Victory
48
82
Momentum Score
100
Cannonier
Rodrigues
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.3
2.2
56%
Strike Accuracy
52%
7.5
Striking Style Score (/10)
8.5
7 KOs
KO Finishes
7 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
7
Head
0
2
Body
0
0
Leg
0
RangeRange
4Distance0
5Clinch0
0Ground0
Cannonier
Rodrigues
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
—
Sub Attempts / fight
0.1
0.9
Grappling Style Score (/10)
0.7
0.6
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
0.5
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Cannonier
Rodrigues
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
22
54
KO risk
Verdict
KO risk
3
KO/TKO Losses
2
0
Sub Losses
0
Avg R2.0 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R2.5 stoppage
3 fights ago
Last KO loss
3 fights ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
20/27 fights
Chin rating based on
13/25 fights
Cannonier
Rodrigues
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
82
100
Current form
3-fight 🔥 win streak
L · Dec · R3
W · KO · R4
L · Dec · R5
L · KO · R4
W · Dec · R5
Last 5
W · KO · R1
W · Dec · R3
W · KO · R1
L · KO · R4
W · Dec · R3
Cannonier
Rodrigues
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
64%
70%
7
KO / TKO Wins
7
0
Submission Wins
0
4
Decision Wins
3
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Cannonier
Rodrigues
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
7.5
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
8.5
0.9
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
0.7
0.6
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
0.5
0.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
6.1
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
7.2
4.0
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
3.9
CannonierRodrigues
Strike Zones
Cannonier
Attacking
9 landedAbsorbing
0 absorbedRodrigues
Attacking
0 landedAbsorbing
9 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Cannonier targets the head (78% of attacks) — Rodrigues absorbs 78% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Cannonier
RND
Rodrigues
0/0R00/0
0/0R10/0
0/0R20/0
Cannonier · QOF Timeline
Avg: 5.4WinLossTrend
Rodrigues · QOF Timeline
Avg: 5.4WinLossTrend
Cannonier · Last 5
L · Dec · R3
Michael PageRating 6.3Decision
UFC 319: Du Plessis vs. Chimaev · 2025-08
W · KO · R4
Gregory RodriguesRating 7KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Cannonier vs. Rodrigues · 2025-02
L · Dec · R5
Caio BorralhoRating 6.9Decision
UFC Fight Night: Cannonier vs. Borralho · 2024-08
L · KO · R4
Nassourdine ImavovRating 4.8KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Cannonier vs. Imavov · 2024-06
W · Dec · R5
Marvin VettoriRating 5.3Decision
UFC Fight Night: Vettori vs. Cannonier · 2023-06
Rodrigues · Last 5
W · KO · R1
Brunno FerreiraRating 6.6KO/TKO
UFC 326: Holloway vs. Oliveira 2 · 2026-03
W · Dec · R3
Roman KopylovRating 5.5Decision
UFC 322: Della Maddalena vs. Makhachev · 2025-11
W · KO · R1
Jack HermanssonRating 5.9KO/TKO
UFC 317: Topuria vs. Oliveira · 2025-06
L · KO · R4
Jared CannonierRating 4.3KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Cannonier vs. Rodrigues · 2025-02
W · Dec · R3
Christian Leroy DuncanRating 6Decision
UFC 304: Edwards vs. Muhammad 2 · 2024-07