METRICS GUIDE
Every stat on this page, explained
All stats are calculated from official fight data. Style scores are Combatrics proprietary ratings updated after every event.
Fight Report
Pre-fight analysis · prediction vs result
Islam Makhachev has never lost a round to a man who could keep him standing — Ian Machado Garry's entire career is an argument that he can.
This is the fight Ian Machado Garry has been publicly booking himself into since 2021, and the strange thing is that he has a real case. Makhachev arrives at Xfinity Mobile Arena as the two-division champion making his first defence of the welterweight belt he took off Jack Della Maddalena last November — the eleventh man in UFC history to hold titles in two weight classes, and the holder of the l…
Makhachev is 28-1 and coming off the Della Maddalena win that made him a two-division champion — the highest momentum score available (100) and no signs of decline. He has had a long layoff since November and this is his first welterweight defence, so the question is whether the extra size has cost him anything in output. He needs a dominant performance to shut down the argument that he is a lightweight wearing a welterweight belt.
Garry is 17-1 with wins over Prates and Belal Muhammad, has started camp early and is riding maximum momentum. His chin rating of 98 and 100 fade index say he is durable and does not fall apart late. He needs to prove he can survive the grappling — everything else about his game is already championship level.
Garry's untested takedown defence against elite chain wrestling
Ten-inch reach deficit for Makhachev at a weight where he is already smaller
Whether Makhachev's cardio holds across five rounds at 170lbs
Garry's ability to jab and move without getting backed to the fence
Championship-round scoring if neither man is hurt
Garry's size and volume could bank three rounds before Makhachev solves the range
Makhachev has never been through a five-round welterweight fight — the fade index is unproven at this weight
This Fight — Statistics
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown