UFC Fight Night: Covington vs. Woodley
Las Vegas, USA
19 Sept 2020
Flyweight
VS
26%
Espinosa
74%
Dvorak
Win Probability
Decision
Round 3 · 5:00
JE
Jordan Espinosa
"The Gamer"
15 – 9
5'6"69" reachOrthodox36 yrs2-fight slideWell-Rounded
CFR 12
DD
David Dvorak
"Undertaker"
20 – 6
Well-Rounded3-fight slide33 yrsOrthodox68" reach5'5"
CFR 33

Combatrics Intelligence

Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics

Edge: Dvorak

Dvorak is a strong favourite at 74% win probability per the CFR ratings. The data points decisively in one direction.

Key angles

The CFR gap of 22 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.

Striking split: Dvorak throws more volume but Espinosa connects at a higher rate — quality vs quantity.

Espinosa
Dvorak
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'6"+
Height
5'5"
69"+
Reach
68"
36
Age
+33
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Espinosa
Dvorak
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
11.5
33.2
28.3
Performance Avg
40.8
25
Quality of Victory
35
45
Momentum Score
43
Espinosa
Dvorak
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.3
1.4
48%
Strike Accuracy
45%
0.7
Striking Style Score (/10)
1.0
0 KOs
KO Finishes
0 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
4
Head
13
7
Body
4
9
Leg
14
RangeRange
18Distance26
2Clinch5
0Ground0
Espinosa
Dvorak
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
—
Sub Attempts / fight
0.2
2.4
Grappling Style Score (/10)
4.3
1.7
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
3.0
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Espinosa
Dvorak
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
72
94
Never stopped
Verdict
Never stopped
0
KO/TKO Losses
0
2
Sub Losses
0
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
6/24 fights
Chin rating based on
6/26 fights
Espinosa
Dvorak
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
45
43
2-fight 📉 slide
Current form
3-fight 📉 slide
L · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
L · Sub · R1
L · Sub · R1
Last 5
L · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
W · Sub · R1
W · Dec · R3
Espinosa
Dvorak
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
0%
33%
0
KO / TKO Wins
0
0
Submission Wins
1
2
Decision Wins
2

Style Fingerprint

Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10

Espinosa
Dvorak
Striking0.7 / 1.0Volume8.7 / 6.3Grappling2.4 / 4.3Wrestling1.7 / 3.0Submission0.0 / 3.3Pressure1.0 / 3.8
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
0.7
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
1.0
2.4
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
4.3
1.7
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
3.0
0.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
3.3
1.0
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
3.8
8.7
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
6.3
Espinosa
Strike Zones
Dvorak
Espinosa
Attacking
4HEAD7BODY9LEGS20 landed
Absorbing
13HEAD4BODY14LEGS31 absorbed
Dvorak
Attacking
13HEAD4BODY14LEGS31 landed
Absorbing
4HEAD7BODY9LEGS20 absorbed
Targeting Overlap
🎯Espinosa targets the legs (45% of attacks) — Dvorak absorbs 45% of strikes there
🎯Dvorak targets the legs (45% of attacks) — Espinosa absorbs 45% of strikes there

Round by Round

This fight · per-round breakdown

Espinosa
RND
Dvorak
0/0R00/0

Espinosa · QOF Timeline

Avg: 4.1
0104.5W1.7L2.8L4.5W5.5L5.6L2019-032019-082020-012020-062020-092021-03
WinLossTrend

Dvorak · QOF Timeline

Avg: 5.6
0105.4W4.5W5.0W5.7L7.2L6.1L2020-032020-092021-052022-032022-122023-06
WinLossTrend

Espinosa · Last 5

L · Dec · R3
Tim ElliottRating 5.6
Decision
UFC 259: Blachowicz vs. Adesanya · 2021-03
L · Dec · R3
David DvorakRating 5.5
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Covington vs. Woodley · 2020-09
W · Dec · R3
Mark De La RosaRating 4.5
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Eye vs. Calvillo · 2020-06
L · Sub · R1
Alex PerezRating 2.8
Submission
UFC Fight Night: Blaydes vs. Dos Santos · 2020-01
L · Sub · R1
Matt SchnellRating 1.7
Submission
UFC Fight Night: Covington vs. Lawler · 2019-08

Dvorak · Last 5

L · Dec · R3
Steve ErcegRating 6.1
Decision
UFC 289: Nunes vs. Aldana · 2023-06
L · Dec · R3
Manel KapeRating 7.2
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Cannonier vs. Strickland · 2022-12
L · Dec · R3
Matheus NicolauRating 5.7
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Blaydes vs. Daukaus · 2022-03
W · Sub · R1
Juancamilo RonderosRating 5
Submission
UFC Fight Night: Font vs. Garbrandt · 2021-05
W · Dec · R3
Jordan EspinosaRating 4.5
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Covington vs. Woodley · 2020-09

News & Media

Jordan Espinosa · David Dvorak
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