UFC Fight Night: Moreno vs. Kavanagh
Mexico City, Mexico
28 Feb 2026
Bantamweight
VS
43%
Vera
57%
Martinez
Win Probability
Decision
Round 3 · 5:00
Marlon
Marlon Vera
"Chito"
23 – 12
5'8"70" reachSwitch33 yrs4-fight slideWell-Rounded
CFR 51
David
David Martinez
14 – 1
Well-Rounded3-fight win streak27 yrsOrthodox67" reach5'5"
CFR 68

Combatrics Intelligence

Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics

Edge: Martinez

This is a genuine toss-up — Vera at 43% vs Martinez at 57% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.

Key angles

The CFR gap of 17 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.

Striking split: Martinez throws more volume but Vera connects at a higher rate — quality vs quantity.

Vera
Martinez
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'8"+
Height
5'5"
70"+
Reach
67"
33
Age
+27
Switch
Stance
Orthodox
Vera
Martinez
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
51.4
68.1
50.4
Performance Avg
62.0
46
Quality of Victory
37
39
Momentum Score
100
Vera
Martinez
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.7
2.7
51%
Strike Accuracy
45%
5.8
Striking Style Score (/10)
5.3
7 KOs
KO Finishes
1 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
16
Head
25
8
Body
5
0
Leg
1
RangeRange
23Distance30
1Clinch1
0Ground0
Vera
Martinez
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
2.8
/ 10
1.6
/ 10
1.9
Wrestling Style (/10)
1.1
2.7
Submission Style (/10)
0.0
4
Submission wins
0
Per-fight takedown stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Vera
Martinez
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
78
100
Never stopped
Verdict
Never stopped
0
KO/TKO Losses
0
0
Sub Losses
0
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
26/35 fights
Chin rating based on
3/15 fights
Vera
Martinez
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
39
100
4-fight 📉 slide
Current form
3-fight 🔥 win streak
L · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R5
W · Dec · R3
Last 5
W · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
W · KO · R1
Vera
Martinez
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
73%
33%
7
KO / TKO Wins
1
4
Submission Wins
0
4
Decision Wins
2

Style Fingerprint

Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10

Vera
Martinez
Striking5.8 / 5.3Volume3.3 / 7.3Grappling2.8 / 1.6Wrestling1.9 / 1.1Submission2.7 / 0.0Pressure6.9 / 5.3
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
5.8
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
5.3
2.8
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
1.6
1.9
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
1.1
2.7
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
6.9
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
5.3
3.3
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
7.3
Vera
Strike Zones
Martinez
Vera
Attacking
16HEAD8BODY0LEGS24 landed
Absorbing
25HEAD5BODY1LEGS31 absorbed
Martinez
Attacking
25HEAD5BODY1LEGS31 landed
Absorbing
16HEAD8BODY0LEGS24 absorbed
Targeting Overlap
🎯Vera targets the head (67% of attacks) — Martinez absorbs 67% of strikes there
🎯Martinez targets the head (81% of attacks) — Vera absorbs 81% of strikes there

Round by Round

This fight · per-round breakdown

Vera
RND
Martinez
0/0R00/0

Vera · QOF Timeline

Avg: 5.8
0105.5L5.2W6.3L4.5W5.5W5.3W5.5L5.7L5.2W5.2W5.0W5.2W5.5W6.8L6.5W6.0L5.3W5.5W5.7W5.4W7.0L5.0W7.0L6.6L6.6L7.2L2014-112018-022020-082023-082026-02
WinLossTrend

Martinez · QOF Timeline

Avg: 5.3
0105.0W5.7W5.3W2025-032025-092026-02
WinLossTrend

Vera · Last 5

L · Dec · R3
David MartinezRating 7.2
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Moreno vs. Kavanagh · 2026-02
L · Dec · R3
Aiemann ZahabiRating 6.6
Decision
UFC Fight Night: De Ridder vs. Allen · 2025-10
L · Dec · R3
Deiveson FigueiredoRating 6.6
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Sandhagen vs. Nurmagomedov · 2024-08
L · Dec · R5
Sean O'MalleyRating 7
Decision
UFC 299: O'Malley vs. Vera 2 · 2024-03
W · Dec · R3
Pedro MunhozRating 5
Decision
UFC 292: Sterling vs. O'Malley · 2023-08

Martinez · Last 3

W · Dec · R3
Marlon VeraRating 5.3
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Moreno vs. Kavanagh · 2026-02
W · Dec · R3
Rob FontRating 5.7
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Lopes vs. Silva · 2025-09
W · KO · R1
Saimon OliveiraRating 5
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Moreno vs. Erceg · 2025-03

News & Media

Marlon Vera · David Martinez
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