UFC Fight Night: Hill vs. Rountree Jr.
Baku, Azerbaijan
21 Jun 2025
Catch Weight
VS
37%
Musayev
63%
Orolbai
Win Probability
Submission
Round 1 · 4:35
Tofiq
Tofiq Musayev
23 – 6
5'9"69" reachOrthodox36 yrsWell-Rounded
CFR 40
Myktybek
Myktybek Orolbai
16 – 2
Well-Rounded3-fight win streak28 yrsOrthodox74" reach5'10"
CFR 67

Combatrics Intelligence

Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics

Edge: Orolbai

Orolbai holds a meaningful edge at 63% per the CFR ratings — but Musayev has real paths to victory.

Key angles

The CFR gap of 27 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.

Orolbai has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 18 points.

Striking split: Orolbai throws more volume but Musayev connects at a higher rate — quality vs quantity.

Musayev
Orolbai
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'9"
Height
+5'10"
69"
Reach
+74"
36
Age
+28
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Musayev
Orolbai
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
39.7
67.1
35.0
Performance Avg
59.0
25
Quality of Victory
43
55
Momentum Score
92
Musayev
Orolbai
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
0.5
0.9
47%
Strike Accuracy
47%
1.0
Striking Style Score (/10)
3.7
0 KOs
KO Finishes
1 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
0
Head
2
2
Body
0
0
Leg
0
RangeRange
2Distance1
0Clinch0
0Ground1
Musayev
Orolbai
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
0.9
Sub Attempts / fight
0.3
2.4
Grappling Style Score (/10)
4.2
1.7
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
2.9
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Musayev
Orolbai
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
88
98
Never stopped
Verdict
Never stopped
0
KO/TKO Losses
0
1
Sub Losses
0
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
2/29 fights
Chin rating based on
6/18 fights
Musayev
Orolbai
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
55
92
Current form
3-fight 🔥 win streak
W · Dec · R3
L · Sub · R1
Last 5
W · Dec · R3
W · KO · R1
W · Sub · R1
L · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
Musayev
Orolbai
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
0%
60%
0
KO / TKO Wins
1
0
Submission Wins
2
1
Decision Wins
2

Style Fingerprint

Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10

Musayev
Orolbai
Striking1.0 / 3.7Volume9.0 / 4.9Grappling2.4 / 4.2Wrestling1.7 / 2.9Submission0.0 / 4.0Pressure1.5 / 6.7
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
1.0
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
3.7
2.4
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
4.2
1.7
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
2.9
0.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
4.0
1.5
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
6.7
9.0
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
4.9
Musayev
Strike Zones
Orolbai
Musayev
Attacking
0HEAD2BODY0LEGS2 landed
Absorbing
2HEAD0BODY0LEGS2 absorbed
Orolbai
Attacking
2HEAD0BODY0LEGS2 landed
Absorbing
0HEAD2BODY0LEGS2 absorbed
Targeting Overlap
🎯Musayev targets the body (100% of attacks) — Orolbai absorbs 100% of strikes there
🎯Orolbai targets the head (100% of attacks) — Musayev absorbs 100% of strikes there

Round by Round

This fight · per-round breakdown

Musayev
RND
Orolbai
0/0R00/0

Musayev · QOF Timeline

Avg: 4.5
0103.1L5.8W2025-062026-03
WinLossTrend

Orolbai · QOF Timeline

Avg: 5.8
0107.1W5.3W6.1L5.2W5.9W5.2W2023-112024-052024-102025-062025-112026-03
WinLossTrend

Musayev · Last 2

W · Dec · R3
Ignacio BahamondesRating 5.8
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Adesanya vs. Pyfer · 2026-03
L · Sub · R1
Myktybek OrolbaiRating 3.1
Submission
UFC Fight Night: Hill vs. Rountree Jr. · 2025-06

Orolbai · Last 5

W · Dec · R3
Chris CurtisRating 5.2
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Emmett vs. Vallejos · 2026-03
W · KO · R1
Jack HermanssonRating 5.9
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Tsarukyan vs. Hooker · 2025-11
W · Sub · R1
Tofiq MusayevRating 5.2
Submission
UFC Fight Night: Hill vs. Rountree Jr. · 2025-06
L · Dec · R3
Mateusz RebeckiRating 6.1
Decision
UFC 308: Topuria vs. Holloway · 2024-10
W · Dec · R3
Elves BrenerRating 5.3
Decision
UFC 301: Pantoja vs. Erceg · 2024-05

News & Media

Tofiq Musayev · Myktybek Orolbai
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