UFC Fight Night: Allen vs. Craig
Las Vegas, USA
18 Nov 2023
Heavyweight
VS
89%
Parkin
11%
Machado
Win Probability
Decision
Round 3 · 5:00
Mick
Mick Parkin
10 – 1
6'4"79" reachOrthodox30 yrsWell-Rounded
CFR 57
Caio
Caio Machado
"Bigfoot"
8 – 4
Well-Rounded3-fight slide31 yrsSouthpaw78" reach6'4"
CFR 7

Combatrics Intelligence

Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics

Edge: Parkin

Parkin is a strong favourite at 89% win probability per the CFR ratings. The data points decisively in one direction.

Key angles

The CFR gap of 50 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.

Parkin has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 34 points.

Parkin has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.

Parkin
Machado
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
6'4"
Height
6'4"
79"+
Reach
78"
30+
Age
31
Orthodox
Stance
Southpaw
Parkin
Machado
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
57.2
6.8
52.2
Performance Avg
0.0
34
Quality of Victory
0
78
Momentum Score
0
Parkin
Machado
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
2.5
2.2
51%
Strike Accuracy
46%
4.1
Striking Style Score (/10)
0.0
1 KOs
KO Finishes
0 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
20
Head
19
1
Body
13
2
Leg
3
RangeRange
21Distance35
2Clinch0
0Ground0
Parkin
Machado
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
1.8
/ 10
0.0
/ 10
1.3
Wrestling Style (/10)
0.0
0.0
Submission Style (/10)
0.0
0
Submission wins
0
Per-fight takedown stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Parkin
Machado
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
98
94
Never stopped
Verdict
Never stopped
0
KO/TKO Losses
0
0
Sub Losses
0
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
5/11 fights
Chin rating based on
3/12 fights
Parkin
Machado
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
78
0
Current form
3-fight 📉 slide
L · Dec · R3
W · KO · R1
W · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
Last 5
L · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
Parkin
Machado
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
25%
0%
1
KO / TKO Wins
0
0
Submission Wins
0
3
Decision Wins
0

Style Fingerprint

Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10

Parkin
Machado
Striking4.1 / 0.0Volume7.6 / 0.0Grappling1.8 / 0.0Wrestling1.3 / 0.0Submission0.0 / 0.0Pressure4.2 / 0.0
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
4.1
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
0.0
1.8
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
0.0
1.3
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
0.0
0.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
4.2
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
0.0
7.6
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
0.0
Parkin
Strike Zones
Machado
Parkin
Attacking
20HEAD1BODY2LEGS23 landed
Absorbing
19HEAD13BODY3LEGS35 absorbed
Machado
Attacking
19HEAD13BODY3LEGS35 landed
Absorbing
20HEAD1BODY2LEGS23 absorbed
Targeting Overlap
🎯Parkin targets the head (87% of attacks) — Machado absorbs 87% of strikes there
🎯Machado targets the head (54% of attacks) — Parkin absorbs 54% of strikes there

Round by Round

This fight · per-round breakdown

Parkin
RND
Machado
0/0R00/0

Parkin · QOF Timeline

Avg: 5.1
0104.7W4.5W5.5W5.0W5.9L2023-072023-112024-032024-072025-03
WinLossTrend

Machado · QOF Timeline

Avg: 6.0
0106.6L5.8L5.7L2023-112024-042024-11
WinLossTrend

Parkin · Last 5

L · Dec · R3
Marcin TyburaRating 5.9
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Edwards vs. Brady · 2025-03
W · KO · R1
Lukasz BrzeskiRating 5
KO/TKO
UFC 304: Edwards vs. Muhammad 2 · 2024-07
W · Dec · R3
Mohammed UsmanRating 5.5
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Ribas vs. Namajunas · 2024-03
W · Dec · R3
Caio MachadoRating 4.5
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Allen vs. Craig · 2023-11
W · Dec · R3
Jamal PoguesRating 4.7
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Aspinall vs. Tybura · 2023-07

Machado · Last 3

L · Dec · R3
Brendson RibeiroRating 5.7
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Moreno vs. Albazi · 2024-11
L · Dec · R3
Don'Tale MayesRating 5.8
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Nicolau vs. Perez · 2024-04
L · Dec · R3
Mick ParkinRating 6.6
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Allen vs. Craig · 2023-11

News & Media

Mick Parkin · Caio Machado
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