UFC Fight Night: Santos vs. Hill
Las Vegas, USA
6 Aug 2022
Heavyweight
VS
71%
Usman
29%
Pauga
Win Probability
KO/TKO
Round 2 · 0:36
Combatrics Intelligence
Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics
Edge: Usman
Usman is a strong favourite at 71% win probability per the CFR ratings. The data points decisively in one direction.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 32 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Pauga has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.
Risk flags
Pauga has a chin rating of 54 — a potential KO vulnerability.
Usman
Pauga
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
6'2"
Height
6'2"
79"+
Reach
76"
37+
Age
38
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Usman
Pauga
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
54.7
22.5
46.2
Performance Avg
25.0
33
Quality of Victory
25
83
Momentum Score
22
Usman
Pauga
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.4
1.6
44%
Strike Accuracy
61%
3.8
Striking Style Score (/10)
0.5
1 KOs
KO Finishes
0 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
3
Head
0
0
Body
1
0
Leg
0
RangeRange
1Distance1
0Clinch0
2Ground0
Usman
Pauga
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
1.8
/ 10
2.4
/ 10
1.3
Wrestling Style (/10)
1.7
0.0
Submission Style (/10)
0.0
0
Submission wins
0
Per-fight takedown stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Usman
Pauga
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
96
54
Never stopped
Verdict
KO risk
0
KO/TKO Losses
2
0
Sub Losses
0
—
KO round context
Avg R1.5 stoppage
—
Last KO loss
Most recent fight
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
6/16 fights
Chin rating based on
4/10 fights
Usman
Pauga
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
83
22
Current form
2-fight 📉 slide
W · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
Last 5
L · KO · R1
L · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
L · KO · R2
Usman
Pauga
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
25%
0%
1
KO / TKO Wins
0
0
Submission Wins
0
3
Decision Wins
1
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Usman
Pauga
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
3.8
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
0.5
1.8
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
2.4
1.3
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
1.7
0.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
3.8
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
0.8
7.3
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
8.5
UsmanPauga
Strike Zones
Usman
Attacking
3 landedAbsorbing
1 absorbedPauga
Attacking
1 landedAbsorbing
3 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Usman targets the head (100% of attacks) — Pauga absorbs 100% of strikes there
🎯Pauga targets the body (100% of attacks) — Usman absorbs 100% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Usman
RND
Pauga
0/0R00/0
0/0R10/0
Usman · QOF Timeline
Avg: 5.4WinLossTrend
Pauga · QOF Timeline
Avg: 4.5WinLossTrend
Usman · Last 5
W · Dec · R3
Hamdy AbdelwahabRating 5Decision
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L · Dec · R3
Thomas PetersenRating 5.5Decision
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L · Dec · R3
Mick ParkinRating 6.6Decision
UFC Fight Night: Ribas vs. Namajunas · 2024-03
W · Dec · R3
Jake CollierRating 4.5Decision
UFC Fight Night: Fiziev vs. Gamrot · 2023-09
W · Dec · R3
Junior TafaRating 5.3Decision
UFC Fight Night: Pavlovich vs. Blaydes · 2023-04
Pauga · Last 4
L · KO · R1
Bogdan GuskovRating 3.5KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Hermansson vs. Pyfer · 2024-02
L · Dec · R3
Modestas BukauskasRating 6.3Decision
UFC Fight Night: Vettori vs. Cannonier · 2023-06
W · Dec · R3
Jordan WrightRating 4.5Decision
UFC Fight Night: Andrade vs. Blanchfield · 2023-02
L · KO · R2
Mohammed UsmanRating 3.7KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Santos vs. Hill · 2022-08