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All stats are calculated from official fight data. Style scores are Combatrics proprietary ratings updated after every event.

UFC 230: Cormier vs. Lewis
New York City, USA
3 Nov 2018
Featherweight
VS
50%
Burgos
50%
Holobaugh
Win Probability
Submission
Round 1 · 2:11
SB
Shane Burgos
"Hurricane"
15 – 3
5'11"75" reachOrthodox35 yrs2-fight win streakWell-Rounded
CFR 32
Kurt
Kurt Holobaugh
"The Hurt"
22 – 10
Well-Rounded2-fight slide39 yrsOrthodox70" reach5'11"
CFR 32
★ Official Result
Shane BurgoswinsSubmissionR1 · 2:11
def. Kurt Holobaugh · UFC 230: Cormier vs. Lewis

Fight Report

Pre-fight analysis · prediction vs result

Prediction vs Result
We predicted
Burgos
→
Actual result
Burgos wins
Submission · R1
Pre-fight analysis

This is a genuine toss-up — Burgos at 50% vs Holobaugh at 50% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.

Key angles

Burgos has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.

Risk flags

Burgos's chin rating of 54 flags durability concerns based on KO history.

Holobaugh has a chin rating of 46 — a potential KO vulnerability.

This Fight — Statistics

Actual stats from this bout
BurgosHolobaugh
0
Sig. Strikes
0
0.0
Strikes / min (SLpM)
0.0
—
Strike Accuracy
—
Burgos
Holobaugh
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'11"
Height
5'11"
75"+
Reach
70"
35+
Age
39
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Burgos
Holobaugh
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
31.9
32.1
50.0
Performance Avg
31.2
35
Quality of Victory
37
100
Momentum Score
20
Burgos
Holobaugh
Striking
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
2.6
1.1
54%
Strike Accuracy
47%
4.0
Striking Style Score (/10)
0.4
2 KOs
KO Finishes
0 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
13
Head
14
2
Body
1
2
Leg
6
RangeRange
17Distance19
0Clinch1
0Ground1
Burgos
Holobaugh
Grappling
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
—
—
—
Sub Attempts / fight
0.1
2.5
Grappling Style Score (/10)
5.2
1.8
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
3.6
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Burgos
Holobaugh
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
54
46
KO risk
Verdict
KO risk
2
KO/TKO Losses
1
0
Sub Losses
2
Avg R3.0 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R3.0 stoppage
2 fights ago
Last KO loss
7 fights ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
11/18 fights
Chin rating based on
9/32 fights
Burgos
Holobaugh
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
100
20
2-fight 🔥 win streak
Current form
2-fight 📉 slide
W · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
L · KO · R3
L · Dec · R3
W · KO · R3
Last 5
L · Sub · R1
L · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
W · Sub · R2
Burgos
Holobaugh
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
38%
50%
2
KO / TKO Wins
0
1
Submission Wins
1
5
Decision Wins
1

Style Fingerprint

Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10

Burgos
Holobaugh
Striking4.0 / 0.4Volume6.5 / 4.4Grappling2.5 / 5.2Wrestling1.8 / 3.6Submission1.3 / 5.0Pressure4.8 / 4.2
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
4.0
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
0.4
2.5
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
5.2
1.8
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
3.6
1.3
Submission
Submission attack frequency
5.0
4.8
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
4.2
6.5
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
4.4
Burgos
Strike Zones
Holobaugh
Burgos
Attacking
13HEAD2BODY2LEGS17 landed
Absorbing
14HEAD1BODY6LEGS21 absorbed
Holobaugh
Attacking
14HEAD1BODY6LEGS21 landed
Absorbing
13HEAD2BODY2LEGS17 absorbed
Targeting Overlap
🎯Burgos targets the head (76% of attacks) — Holobaugh absorbs 76% of strikes there
🎯Holobaugh targets the head (67% of attacks) — Burgos absorbs 67% of strikes there

Round by Round

This fight · per-round breakdown

Burgos
RND
Holobaugh
0/0R00/0
0/0R10/0

Burgos · QOF Timeline

Avg: 5.1
0104.5W5.5W4.5W4.5L5.0W5.0W5.6W5.6L4.5L5.7W5.3W2016-122018-012019-112021-112022-07
WinLossTrend

Holobaugh · QOF Timeline

Avg: 4.7
0105.5L4.8L1.5L5.7L5.2W5.6L4.5W6.4L3.0L2013-042019-052024-072025-05
WinLossTrend

Burgos · Last 5

W · Dec · R3
Charles JourdainRating 5.3
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Ortega vs. Rodriguez · 2022-07
W · Dec · R3
Billy QuarantilloRating 5.7
Decision
UFC 268: Usman vs. Covington 2 · 2021-11
L · KO · R3
Edson BarbozaRating 4.5
KO/TKO
UFC 262: Oliveira vs. Chandler · 2021-05
L · Dec · R3
Josh EmmettRating 5.6
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Blaydes vs. Volkov · 2020-06
W · KO · R3
Makwan AmirkhaniRating 5.6
KO/TKO
UFC 244: Masvidal vs. Diaz · 2019-11

Holobaugh · Last 5

L · Sub · R1
Jordan LeavittRating 3
Submission
UFC Fight Night: Blanchfield vs. Barber · 2025-05
L · Dec · R3
Alexander HernandezRating 6.4
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Vettori vs. Dolidze 2 · 2025-03
W · Dec · R3
Kaynan KruschewskyRating 4.5
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Lemos vs. Jandiroba · 2024-07
L · Dec · R3
Trey OgdenRating 5.6
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Ribas vs. Namajunas · 2024-03
W · Sub · R2
Austin HubbardRating 5.2
Submission
UFC 292: Sterling vs. O'Malley · 2023-08

News & Media

Shane Burgos · Kurt Holobaugh
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