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All stats are calculated from official fight data. Style scores are Combatrics proprietary ratings updated after every event.

UFC 230: Cormier vs. Lewis
New York City, USA
3 Nov 2018
Featherweight
VS
50%
Burgos
50%
Holobaugh
Win Probability
Submission
Round 1 · 2:11
SB
Shane Burgos
"Hurricane"
15 – 3
5'11"75" reachOrthodox35 yrs2-fight win streakWell-Rounded
CFR 32
Kurt
Kurt Holobaugh
"The Hurt"
22 – 10
Well-Rounded2-fight slide40 yrsOrthodox70" reach5'11"
CFR 32
★ Official Result
Shane BurgoswinsSubmissionR1 · 2:11
def. Kurt Holobaugh · UFC 230: Cormier vs. Lewis

Fight Report

Pre-fight analysis · prediction vs result

Prediction vs Result
We predicted
Burgos
→
Actual result
Burgos wins
Submission · R1
Pre-fight analysis

This is a genuine toss-up — Burgos at 50% vs Holobaugh at 50% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.

Risk flags

Burgos's chin rating of 54 flags durability concerns based on KO history.

Holobaugh has a chin rating of 46 — a potential KO vulnerability.

This Fight — Statistics

Actual stats from this bout
BurgosHolobaugh
0
Sig. Strikes
0
0.0
Strikes / min (SLpM)
0.0
—
Strike Accuracy
—
Burgos
Holobaugh
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'11"
Height
5'11"
75"+
Reach
70"
35+
Age
40
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Burgos
Holobaugh
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
31.9
32.1
50.0
Performance Avg
31.2
35
Quality of Victory
37
100
Momentum Score
20
Burgos
Holobaugh
Striking
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
4.0
/ 10
0.4
/ 10
4.8
Style: Pressure
4.2
6.5
Style: Volume
4.4
2 KO wins
Finish Rate (strikes)
0 KO wins
Per-minute strike stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Strike targetStrike target
13
Head
14
2
Body
1
2
Leg
6
RangeRange
17Distance19
0Clinch1
0Ground1
Burgos
Holobaugh
Grappling
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
2.5
/ 10
5.2
/ 10
1.8
Wrestling Style (/10)
3.6
1.3
Submission Style (/10)
5.0
1
Submission wins
1
Per-fight takedown stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Burgos
Holobaugh
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
54
46
KO risk
Verdict
KO risk
2
KO/TKO Losses
1
0
Sub Losses
2
Avg R3.0 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R3.0 stoppage
2 fights ago
Last KO loss
7 fights ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
11/18 fights
Chin rating based on
9/32 fights
Burgos
Holobaugh
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
100
20
2-fight 🔥 win streak
Current form
2-fight 📉 slide
W · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
L · KO · R3
L · Dec · R3
W · KO · R3
Last 5
L · Sub · R1
L · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
W · Sub · R2
Burgos
Holobaugh
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
38%
50%
2
KO / TKO Wins
0
1
Submission Wins
1
5
Decision Wins
1

Style Fingerprint

Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10

Burgos
Holobaugh
Striking4.0 / 0.4Volume6.5 / 4.4Grappling2.5 / 5.2Wrestling1.8 / 3.6Submission1.3 / 5.0Pressure4.8 / 4.2
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
4.0
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
0.4
2.5
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
5.2
1.8
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
3.6
1.3
Submission
Submission attack frequency
5.0
4.8
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
4.2
6.5
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
4.4
Burgos
Strike Zones
Holobaugh
Burgos
Attacking
13HEAD2BODY2LEGS17 landed
Absorbing
14HEAD1BODY6LEGS21 absorbed
Holobaugh
Attacking
14HEAD1BODY6LEGS21 landed
Absorbing
13HEAD2BODY2LEGS17 absorbed
Targeting Overlap
🎯Burgos targets the head (76% of attacks) — Holobaugh absorbs 76% of strikes there
🎯Holobaugh targets the head (67% of attacks) — Burgos absorbs 67% of strikes there

Round by Round

This fight · per-round breakdown

Burgos
RND
Holobaugh
0/0R00/0
0/0R10/0

Burgos · Last 5

W · Dec · R3
Charles Jourdain
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Ortega vs. Rodriguez · 2022-07
W · Dec · R3
Billy Quarantillo
Decision
UFC 268: Usman vs. Covington 2 · 2021-11
L · KO · R3
Edson Barboza
KO/TKO
UFC 262: Oliveira vs. Chandler · 2021-05
L · Dec · R3
Josh Emmett
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Blaydes vs. Volkov · 2020-06
W · KO · R3
Makwan Amirkhani
KO/TKO
UFC 244: Masvidal vs. Diaz · 2019-11

Holobaugh · Last 5

L · Sub · R1
Jordan Leavitt
Submission
UFC Fight Night: Blanchfield vs. Barber · 2025-05
L · Dec · R3
Alexander Hernandez
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Vettori vs. Dolidze 2 · 2025-03
W · Dec · R3
Kaynan Kruschewsky
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Lemos vs. Jandiroba · 2024-07
L · Dec · R3
Trey Ogden
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Ribas vs. Namajunas · 2024-03
W · Sub · R2
Austin Hubbard
Submission
UFC 292: Sterling vs. O'Malley · 2023-08

News & Media

Shane Burgos · Kurt Holobaugh
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