UFC 159: Jones vs Sonnen
Newark, USA
27 Apr 2013
Bantamweight
VS
53%
Caraway
47%
Bedford
Win Probability
Submission
Round 3 · 4:44
BC
Bryan Caraway
"Kid Lightning"
21 – 9
5'8"68" reachOrthodox41 yrs2-fight slideWell-Rounded
CFR 20
JB
Johnny Bedford
"Brutal"
21 – 13
Knockout Artist3-fight slide43 yrsOrthodox71" reach5'10"
CFR 18

Combatrics Intelligence

Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics

Edge: Caraway

This is a genuine toss-up — Caraway at 53% vs Bedford at 47% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.

Key angles

Bedford has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 13 points.

Bedford has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.

Risk flags

Bedford has a chin rating of 54 — a potential KO vulnerability.

Caraway
Bedford
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'8"
Height
+5'10"
68"
Reach
+71"
41+
Age
43
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Caraway
Bedford
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
20.0
17.7
47.9
Performance Avg
47.5
40
Quality of Victory
53
82
Momentum Score
39
Caraway
Bedford
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.1
1.3
37%
Strike Accuracy
52%
1.2
Striking Style Score (/10)
10.0
0 KOs
KO Finishes
2 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
12
Head
8
1
Body
3
0
Leg
1
RangeRange
13Distance12
0Clinch0
0Ground0
Caraway
Bedford
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
0.1
Sub Attempts / fight
0.3
6.1
Grappling Style Score (/10)
0.0
4.3
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
0.0
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Caraway
Bedford
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
72
54
Moderate
Verdict
KO risk
1
KO/TKO Losses
1
0
Sub Losses
2
Avg R1.0 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R1.0 stoppage
Most recent fight
Last KO loss
1 fight ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
10/30 fights
Chin rating based on
6/34 fights
Caraway
Bedford
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
82
39
2-fight 📉 slide
Current form
3-fight 📉 slide
L · KO · R1
L · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
Last 5
L · Sub · R2
L · KO · R1
Upcoming
L · Sub · R3
W · KO · R2
Caraway
Bedford
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
67%
100%
0
KO / TKO Wins
2
4
Submission Wins
0
2
Decision Wins
0

Style Fingerprint

Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10

Caraway
Bedford
Striking1.2 / 10.0Volume3.9 / 0.8Grappling6.1 / 0.0Wrestling4.3 / 0.0Submission6.7 / 0.0Pressure6.5 / 8.2
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
1.2
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
10.0
6.1
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
0.0
4.3
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
0.0
6.7
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
6.5
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
8.2
3.9
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
0.8
Caraway
Strike Zones
Bedford
Caraway
Attacking
12HEAD1BODY0LEGS13 landed
Absorbing
8HEAD3BODY1LEGS12 absorbed
Bedford
Attacking
8HEAD3BODY1LEGS12 landed
Absorbing
12HEAD1BODY0LEGS13 absorbed
Targeting Overlap
🎯Caraway targets the head (92% of attacks) — Bedford absorbs 92% of strikes there
🎯Bedford targets the head (67% of attacks) — Caraway absorbs 67% of strikes there

Round by Round

This fight · per-round breakdown

Caraway
RND
Bedford
0/0R00/0

Caraway · QOF Timeline

Avg: 5.0
0105.2W5.5W5.5L5.5W5.2W5.5L4.5W5.5W5.5L2.0L2011-122013-042015-072018-11
WinLossTrend

Bedford · QOF Timeline

Avg: 3.9
0105.5W5.2W4.0L1.7L3.1L2011-122012-122013-042014-062014-09
WinLossTrend

Caraway · Last 5

L · KO · R1
Pedro MunhozRating 2
KO/TKO
The Ultimate Fighter: Heavy Hitters Finale · 2018-11
L · Dec · R3
Cody StamannRating 5.5
Decision
UFC 222: Cyborg vs. Kunitskaya · 2018-03
W · Dec · R3
Aljamain SterlingRating 5.5
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Almeida vs Garbrandt · 2016-05
W · Dec · R3
Eddie WinelandRating 4.5
Decision
UFC on FOX: Dillashaw vs. Barao II · 2015-07
L · Dec · R3
Raphael AssuncaoRating 5.5
Decision
UFC Fight Night: MacDonald vs Saffiedine · 2014-10

Bedford · Last 5

L · Sub · R2
Rani YahyaRating 3.1
Submission
UFC Fight Night: Bigfoot vs Arlovski · 2014-09
L · KO · R1
Cody GibsonRating 1.7
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Swanson vs Stephens · 2014-06
Upcoming
Rani Yahya
UFC Fight Night: Minotauro vs Nelson · 2014-04
L · Sub · R3
Bryan CarawayRating 4
Submission
UFC 159: Jones vs Sonnen · 2013-04
W · KO · R2
Marcos ViniciusRating 5.2
KO/TKO
The Ultimate Fighter: Team Carwin vs. Team Nelson Finale · 2012-12

News & Media

Bryan Caraway · Johnny Bedford
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