UFC Fight Night: Strickland vs. Hernandez
Houston, USA
21 Feb 2026
Middleweight
VS
54%
Reese
46%
Pereira
Win Probability
Decision
Round 3 · 5:00
Combatrics Intelligence
Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics
Edge: Reese
This is a genuine toss-up — Reese at 54% vs Pereira at 46% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 8 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Pereira has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.
Risk flags
Reese's chin rating of 54 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
Pereira has a chin rating of 50 — a potential KO vulnerability.
Reese
Pereira
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
6'4"+
Height
6'1"
77"+
Reach
73"
32
Age
32
Switch
Stance
Orthodox
Reese
Pereira
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
55.0
47.1
46.8
Performance Avg
50.5
40
Quality of Victory
40
88
Momentum Score
39
Reese
Pereira
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.5
1.6
50%
Strike Accuracy
53%
3.6
Striking Style Score (/10)
3.3
1 KOs
KO Finishes
2 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
11
Head
9
11
Body
12
5
Leg
2
RangeRange
26Distance22
1Clinch1
0Ground0
Reese
Pereira
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
3.2
/ 10
3.6
/ 10
2.2
Wrestling Style (/10)
2.5
2.5
Submission Style (/10)
3.0
1
Submission wins
3
Per-fight takedown stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Reese
Pereira
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
54
50
KO risk
Verdict
KO risk
2
KO/TKO Losses
2
0
Sub Losses
0
Avg R1.0 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R3.0 stoppage
4 fights ago
Last KO loss
2 fights ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
8/13 fights
Chin rating based on
16/46 fights
Reese
Pereira
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
88
39
L · Dec · R3
W · Sub · R2
Upcoming
W · Dec · R3
L · KO · R1
Last 5
Upcoming
W · Dec · R3
L · KO · R1
L · Dec · R3
L · KO · R5
Reese
Pereira
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
50%
50%
1
KO / TKO Wins
2
1
Submission Wins
3
2
Decision Wins
5
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Reese
Pereira
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
3.6
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
3.3
3.2
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
3.6
2.2
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
2.5
2.5
Submission
Submission attack frequency
3.0
5.2
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
5.5
5.1
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
5.3
ReesePereira
Strike Zones
Reese
Attacking
27 landedAbsorbing
23 absorbedPereira
Attacking
23 landedAbsorbing
27 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Reese targets the head (41% of attacks) — Pereira absorbs 41% of strikes there
🎯Pereira targets the body (52% of attacks) — Reese absorbs 52% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Reese
RND
Pereira
0/0R00/0
Reese · QOF Timeline
Avg: 4.6WinLossTrend
Pereira · QOF Timeline
Avg: 5.2WinLossTrend
Reese · Last 5
L · Dec · R3
Michel PereiraRating 6.1Decision
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W · Sub · R2
Jackson McVeyRating 6.2Submission
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Pereira · Last 5
Upcoming
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