UFC 264: Poirier vs. McGregor 3
Las Vegas, USA
10 Jul 2021
Women's Bantamweight
VS
58%
Aldana
42%
Santos
Win Probability
KO/TKO
Round 1 · 4:35
Combatrics Intelligence
Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics
Edge: Aldana
This is a genuine toss-up — Aldana at 58% vs Santos at 42% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 14 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Aldana has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 14 points.
Striking split: Aldana throws more volume but Santos connects at a higher rate — quality vs quantity.
Risk flags
Santos has a chin rating of 30 — a potential KO vulnerability.
Aldana
Santos
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'9"+
Height
5'6"
68"
Reach
68"
38
Age
+36
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Aldana
Santos
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
50.5
37.0
46.5
Performance Avg
38.3
39
Quality of Victory
25
81
Momentum Score
55
Aldana
Santos
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
2.1
1.1
45%
Strike Accuracy
47%
4.9
Striking Style Score (/10)
1.2
3 KOs
KO Finishes
0 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
28
Head
8
6
Body
9
3
Leg
7
RangeRange
13Distance18
3Clinch6
21Ground0
Aldana
Santos
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
0.1
Sub Attempts / fight
—
2.2
Grappling Style Score (/10)
2.4
1.5
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
1.7
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Aldana
Santos
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
88
30
Never stopped
Verdict
KO risk
0
KO/TKO Losses
3
0
Sub Losses
0
—
KO round context
Avg R1.7 stoppage
—
Last KO loss
5 fights ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
14/23 fights
Chin rating based on
12/25 fights
Aldana
Santos
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
81
55
Current form
3-fight 🔥 win streak
L · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R5
W · KO · R3
W · KO · R1
Last 5
W · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
Aldana
Santos
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
50%
0%
3
KO / TKO Wins
0
1
Submission Wins
0
4
Decision Wins
7
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Aldana
Santos
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
4.9
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
1.2
2.2
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
2.4
1.5
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
1.7
1.3
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
5.2
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
1.8
5.1
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
9.2
AldanaSantos
Strike Zones
Aldana
Attacking
37 landedAbsorbing
24 absorbedSantos
Attacking
24 landedAbsorbing
37 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Aldana targets the head (76% of attacks) — Santos absorbs 76% of strikes there
🎯Santos targets the body (38% of attacks) — Aldana absorbs 38% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Aldana
RND
Santos
0/0R00/0
0/0R10/0
Aldana · QOF Timeline
Avg: 5.5WinLossTrend
Santos · QOF Timeline
Avg: 4.5WinLossTrend
Aldana · Last 5
L · Dec · R3
Norma DumontRating 6Decision
UFC 306: Riyadh Season Noche UFC · 2024-09
W · Dec · R3
Karol RosaRating 5.2Decision
UFC 296: Edwards vs. Covington · 2023-12
L · Dec · R5
Amanda NunesRating 6.7Decision
UFC 289: Nunes vs. Aldana · 2023-06
W · KO · R3
Macy ChiassonRating 6.8KO/TKO
UFC 279: Diaz vs. Ferguson · 2022-09
W · KO · R1
Yana SantosRating 5.1KO/TKO
UFC 264: Poirier vs. McGregor 3 · 2021-07
Santos · Last 5
W · Dec · R3
Macy ChiassonRating 5.8Decision
UFC 320: Ankalaev vs. Pereira 2 · 2025-10
W · Dec · R3
Miesha TateRating 5.4Decision
UFC Fight Night: Sandhagen vs. Figueiredo · 2025-05
W · Dec · R3
Chelsea ChandlerRating 5Decision
UFC Fight Night: Tybura vs. Spivac 2 · 2024-08
L · Dec · R3
Karol RosaRating 6.2Decision
UFC Fight Night: Strickland vs. Magomedov · 2023-07
L · Dec · R3
Holly HolmRating 5.6Decision
UFC Fight Night: Vera vs. Sandhagen · 2023-03