UFC Fight Night: Barnett vs Nelson
Saitama, Japan
26 Sept 2015
Lightweight
VS
84%
Hein
16%
Kasuya
Win Probability
Decision
Round 3 · 5:00
Combatrics Intelligence
Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics
Edge: Hein
Hein is a strong favourite at 84% win probability per the CFR ratings. The data points decisively in one direction.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 9 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Hein has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 25 points.
Striking split: Hein throws more volume but Kasuya connects at a higher rate — quality vs quantity.
Risk flags
Hein's chin rating of 62 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
Hein
Kasuya
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'6"
Height
+5'7"
66"
Reach
42
Age
+36
Southpaw
Stance
Southpaw
Hein
Kasuya
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
10.7
2.1
35.0
Performance Avg
0.0
25
Quality of Victory
0
20
Momentum Score
0
Hein
Kasuya
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.2
0.7
38%
Strike Accuracy
42%
1.0
Striking Style Score (/10)
0.0
0 KOs
KO Finishes
0 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
10
Head
6
0
Body
4
7
Leg
4
RangeRange
17Distance14
0Clinch0
0Ground0
Hein
Kasuya
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
0.1
Sub Attempts / fight
—
2.4
Grappling Style Score (/10)
0.0
1.7
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
0.0
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Hein
Kasuya
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
62
76
Moderate
Verdict
Moderate
1
KO/TKO Losses
1
1
Sub Losses
0
Avg R2.0 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R2.0 stoppage
Most recent fight
Last KO loss
Most recent fight
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
8/19 fights
Chin rating based on
2/12 fights
Hein
Kasuya
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
20
0
3-fight 📉 slide
Current form
2-fight 📉 slide
L · KO · R2
L · Dec · R3
L · Sub · R1
W · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
Last 5
L · KO · R2
L · Dec · R3
Hein
Kasuya
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
0%
0%
0
KO / TKO Wins
0
0
Submission Wins
0
4
Decision Wins
0
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Hein
Kasuya
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
1.0
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
0.0
2.4
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
0.0
1.7
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
0.0
0.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
1.5
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
0.0
9.0
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
0.0
HeinKasuya
Strike Zones
Hein
Attacking
17 landedAbsorbing
14 absorbedKasuya
Attacking
14 landedAbsorbing
17 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Hein targets the head (59% of attacks) — Kasuya absorbs 59% of strikes there
🎯Kasuya targets the head (43% of attacks) — Hein absorbs 43% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Hein
RND
Kasuya
0/0R00/0
Hein · QOF Timeline
Avg: 4.3WinLossTrend
Kasuya · QOF Timeline
Avg: 4.8WinLossTrend
Hein · Last 5
L · KO · R2
Frank CamachoRating 2.8KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Gustafsson vs. Smith · 2019-06
L · Dec · R3
Damir HadzovicRating 5.5Decision
UFC Fight Night: Shogun vs. Smith · 2018-07
L · Sub · R1
Davi RamosRating 1.5Submission
UFC 224: Nunes vs. Pennington · 2018-05
W · Dec · R3
Tae Hyun BangRating 4.5Decision
UFC Fight Night: Arlovski vs. Barnett · 2016-09
W · Dec · R3
Yusuke KasuyaRating 4.5Decision
UFC Fight Night: Barnett vs Nelson · 2015-09
Kasuya · Last 2
L · KO · R2
Alexander VolkanovskiRating 4.2KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Whittaker vs. Brunson · 2016-11
L · Dec · R3
Nick HeinRating 5.5Decision
UFC Fight Night: Barnett vs Nelson · 2015-09