METRICS GUIDE
Every stat on this page, explained
All stats are calculated from official fight data. Style scores are Combatrics proprietary ratings updated after every event.
UFC 198: Werdum vs Miocic
Curitiba, Brazil
14 May 2016
Light Heavyweight
VS
53%
Nogueira
47%
Cummins
Win Probability
KO/TKO
Round 1 · 4:52
★ Official Result
Rogerio NogueirawinsKO/TKOR1 · 4:52
def. Patrick Cummins · UFC 198: Werdum vs Miocic
Fight Report
Pre-fight analysis · prediction vs result
Prediction vs Result
We predicted
Nogueira
→
Actual result
Nogueira wins
KO/TKO · R1
Pre-fight analysis
This is a genuine toss-up — Nogueira at 53% vs Cummins at 47% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.
Key angles
Nogueira has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 13 points.
Risk flags
Nogueira's chin rating of 26 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
Cummins has a chin rating of 0 — a potential KO vulnerability.
This Fight — Statistics
Actual stats from this bout
NogueiraCummins
0
Sig. Strikes
0
0.0
Strikes / min (SLpM)
0.0
—
Strike Accuracy
—
Nogueira
Cummins
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
6'2"
Height
6'2"
75"
Reach
+76"
50
Age
+45
Southpaw
Stance
Orthodox
Nogueira
Cummins
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
14.4
12.7
47.0
Performance Avg
39.0
48
Quality of Victory
34
20
Momentum Score
45
Nogueira
Cummins
Striking
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
7.6
/ 10
4.3
/ 10
6.0
Style: Pressure
3.7
3.6
Style: Volume
6.3
4 KO wins
Finish Rate (strikes)
2 KO wins
Per-minute strike stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Strike targetStrike target
30
Head
6
0
Body
0
0
Leg
6
RangeRange
23Distance12
2Clinch0
5Ground0
Nogueira
Cummins
Grappling
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
0.8
/ 10
1.6
/ 10
0.6
Wrestling Style (/10)
1.1
0.0
Submission Style (/10)
0.0
0
Submission wins
0
Per-fight takedown stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Nogueira
Cummins
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
26
0
KO risk
Verdict
2 consec. KOs
3
KO/TKO Losses
5
0
Sub Losses
1
Avg R1.7 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R1.2 stoppage
1 fight ago
Last KO loss
Most recent fight
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
13/33 fights
Chin rating based on
13/17 fights
Nogueira
Cummins
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
20
45
2-fight 📉 slide
Current form
3-fight 📉 slide
L · Dec · R3
L · KO · R1
W · KO · R2
L · KO · R3
W · KO · R1
Last 5
L · KO · R1
L · Sub · R1
L · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
Nogueira
Cummins
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
67%
33%
4
KO / TKO Wins
2
0
Submission Wins
0
2
Decision Wins
4
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Nogueira
Cummins
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
7.6
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
4.3
0.8
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
1.6
0.6
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
1.1
0.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
6.0
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
3.7
3.6
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
6.3
NogueiraCummins
Strike Zones
Nogueira
Attacking
30 landedAbsorbing
12 absorbedCummins
Attacking
12 landedAbsorbing
30 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Nogueira targets the head (100% of attacks) — Cummins absorbs 100% of strikes there
🎯Cummins targets the head (50% of attacks) — Nogueira absorbs 50% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Nogueira
RND
Cummins
0/0R00/0
0/0R10/0
Nogueira · Last 5
L · Dec · R3
Mauricio RuaDecision
UFC Fight Night: Whittaker vs. Till · 2020-07
L · KO · R1
Ryan SpannKO/TKO
UFC 237: Namajunas vs. Andrade · 2019-05
W · KO · R2
Sam AlveyKO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Marreta vs. Anders · 2018-09
L · KO · R3
Ryan BaderKO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Bader vs. Nogueira · 2016-11
W · KO · R1
Patrick CumminsKO/TKO
UFC 198: Werdum vs Miocic · 2016-05
Cummins · Last 5
L · KO · R1
Ed HermanKO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Dos Anjos vs. Lee · 2019-05
L · Sub · R1
Misha CirkunovSubmission
UFC Fight Night: Oezdemir vs. Smith · 2018-10
L · Dec · R3
Corey AndersonDecision
UFC Fight Night: Barboza vs. Lee · 2018-04
W · Dec · R3
Gian VillanteDecision
UFC Fight Night: Weidman vs. Gastelum · 2017-07
W · Dec · R3
Jan BlachowiczDecision
UFC 210: Cormier vs. Johnson 2 · 2017-04