METRICS GUIDE
Every stat on this page, explained
All stats are calculated from official fight data. Style scores are Combatrics proprietary ratings updated after every event.
UFC 198: Werdum vs Miocic
Curitiba, Brazil
14 May 2016
Light Heavyweight
VS
53%
Nogueira
47%
Cummins
Win Probability
KO/TKO
Round 1 · 4:52
★ Official Result
Rogerio NogueirawinsKO/TKOR1 · 4:52
def. Patrick Cummins · UFC 198: Werdum vs Miocic
Fight Report
Pre-fight analysis · prediction vs result
Prediction vs Result
We predicted
Nogueira
→
Actual result
Nogueira wins
KO/TKO · R1
Pre-fight analysis
This is a genuine toss-up — Nogueira at 53% vs Cummins at 47% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.
Key angles
Nogueira has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 13 points.
Cummins has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.
Risk flags
Nogueira's chin rating of 26 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
Cummins has a chin rating of 0 — a potential KO vulnerability.
This Fight — Statistics
Actual stats from this bout
NogueiraCummins
0
Sig. Strikes
0
0.0
Strikes / min (SLpM)
0.0
—
Strike Accuracy
—
Nogueira
Cummins
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
6'2"
Height
6'2"
75"
Reach
+76"
50
Age
+45
Southpaw
Stance
Orthodox
Nogueira
Cummins
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
14.4
12.7
47.0
Performance Avg
39.0
48
Quality of Victory
34
20
Momentum Score
45
Nogueira
Cummins
Striking
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
1.7
1.8
42%
Strike Accuracy
54%
7.6
Striking Style Score (/10)
4.3
4 KOs
KO Finishes
2 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
30
Head
6
0
Body
0
0
Leg
6
RangeRange
23Distance12
2Clinch0
5Ground0
Nogueira
Cummins
Grappling
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
—
—
0.2
Sub Attempts / fight
—
0.8
Grappling Style Score (/10)
1.6
0.6
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
1.1
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Nogueira
Cummins
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
26
0
KO risk
Verdict
2 consec. KOs
3
KO/TKO Losses
5
0
Sub Losses
1
Avg R1.7 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R1.2 stoppage
1 fight ago
Last KO loss
Most recent fight
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
13/33 fights
Chin rating based on
13/17 fights
Nogueira
Cummins
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
20
45
2-fight 📉 slide
Current form
3-fight 📉 slide
L · Dec · R3
L · KO · R1
W · KO · R2
L · KO · R3
W · KO · R1
Last 5
L · KO · R1
L · Sub · R1
L · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
Nogueira
Cummins
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
67%
33%
4
KO / TKO Wins
2
0
Submission Wins
0
2
Decision Wins
4
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Nogueira
Cummins
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
7.6
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
4.3
0.8
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
1.6
0.6
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
1.1
0.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
6.0
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
3.7
3.6
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
6.3
NogueiraCummins
Strike Zones
Nogueira
Attacking
30 landedAbsorbing
12 absorbedCummins
Attacking
12 landedAbsorbing
30 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Nogueira targets the head (100% of attacks) — Cummins absorbs 100% of strikes there
🎯Cummins targets the head (50% of attacks) — Nogueira absorbs 50% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Nogueira
RND
Cummins
0/0R00/0
0/0R10/0
Nogueira · QOF Timeline
Avg: 4.4WinLossTrend
Cummins · QOF Timeline
Avg: 3.6WinLossTrend
Nogueira · Last 5
L · Dec · R3
Mauricio RuaRating 5.5Decision
UFC Fight Night: Whittaker vs. Till · 2020-07
L · KO · R1
Ryan SpannRating 1.9KO/TKO
UFC 237: Namajunas vs. Andrade · 2019-05
W · KO · R2
Sam AlveyRating 5.2KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Marreta vs. Anders · 2018-09
L · KO · R3
Ryan BaderRating 2.8KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Bader vs. Nogueira · 2016-11
W · KO · R1
Patrick CumminsRating 5KO/TKO
UFC 198: Werdum vs Miocic · 2016-05
Cummins · Last 5
L · KO · R1
Ed HermanRating 1.7KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Dos Anjos vs. Lee · 2019-05
L · Sub · R1
Misha CirkunovRating 1.5Submission
UFC Fight Night: Oezdemir vs. Smith · 2018-10
L · Dec · R3
Corey AndersonRating 5.5Decision
UFC Fight Night: Barboza vs. Lee · 2018-04
W · Dec · R3
Gian VillanteRating 4.5Decision
UFC Fight Night: Weidman vs. Gastelum · 2017-07
W · Dec · R3
Jan BlachowiczRating 5.1Decision
UFC 210: Cormier vs. Johnson 2 · 2017-04