UFC 198: Werdum vs Miocic
Curitiba, Brazil
14 May 2016
Light Heavyweight
VS
53%
Nogueira
47%
Cummins
Win Probability
KO/TKO
Round 1 · 4:52
RN
Rogerio Nogueira
"Minotouro"
23 – 10
6'2"75" reachSouthpaw49 yrs2-fight slideStriker
CFR 14
PC
Patrick Cummins
"Durkin"
10 – 7
Well-Rounded3-fight slide45 yrsOrthodox76" reach6'2"
CFR 13

Combatrics Intelligence

Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics

Edge: Nogueira

This is a genuine toss-up — Nogueira at 53% vs Cummins at 47% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.

Key angles

Nogueira has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 13 points.

Cummins has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.

Risk flags

Nogueira's chin rating of 26 flags durability concerns based on KO history.

Cummins has a chin rating of 0 — a potential KO vulnerability.

Nogueira
Cummins
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
6'2"
Height
6'2"
75"
Reach
+76"
49
Age
+45
Southpaw
Stance
Orthodox
Nogueira
Cummins
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
14.4
12.7
47.0
Performance Avg
39.0
48
Quality of Victory
34
20
Momentum Score
45
Nogueira
Cummins
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.7
1.8
42%
Strike Accuracy
54%
7.6
Striking Style Score (/10)
4.3
4 KOs
KO Finishes
2 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
30
Head
6
0
Body
0
0
Leg
6
RangeRange
23Distance12
2Clinch0
5Ground0
Nogueira
Cummins
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
0.2
Sub Attempts / fight
—
0.8
Grappling Style Score (/10)
1.6
0.6
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
1.1
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Nogueira
Cummins
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
26
0
KO risk
Verdict
2 consec. KOs
3
KO/TKO Losses
5
0
Sub Losses
1
Avg R1.7 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R1.2 stoppage
1 fight ago
Last KO loss
Most recent fight
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
13/33 fights
Chin rating based on
13/17 fights
Nogueira
Cummins
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
20
45
2-fight 📉 slide
Current form
3-fight 📉 slide
L · Dec · R3
L · KO · R1
W · KO · R2
L · KO · R3
W · KO · R1
Last 5
L · KO · R1
L · Sub · R1
L · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
Nogueira
Cummins
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
67%
33%
4
KO / TKO Wins
2
0
Submission Wins
0
2
Decision Wins
4

Style Fingerprint

Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10

Nogueira
Cummins
Striking7.6 / 4.3Volume3.6 / 6.3Grappling0.8 / 1.6Wrestling0.6 / 1.1Submission0.0 / 0.0Pressure6.0 / 3.7
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
7.6
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
4.3
0.8
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
1.6
0.6
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
1.1
0.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
6.0
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
3.7
3.6
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
6.3
Nogueira
Strike Zones
Cummins
Nogueira
Attacking
30HEAD0BODY0LEGS30 landed
Absorbing
6HEAD0BODY6LEGS12 absorbed
Cummins
Attacking
6HEAD0BODY6LEGS12 landed
Absorbing
30HEAD0BODY0LEGS30 absorbed
Targeting Overlap
🎯Nogueira targets the head (100% of attacks) — Cummins absorbs 100% of strikes there
🎯Cummins targets the head (50% of attacks) — Nogueira absorbs 50% of strikes there

Round by Round

This fight · per-round breakdown

Nogueira
RND
Cummins
0/0R00/0
0/0R10/0

Nogueira · QOF Timeline

Avg: 4.4
0105.0W4.5W5.5L5.5L5.0W4.5W1.5L5.5L5.0W2.8L5.2W1.9L5.5L2009-112011-122016-052020-07
WinLossTrend

Cummins · QOF Timeline

Avg: 3.6
0101.5L5.2W4.5W4.5W2.1L5.5W3.1L1.5L5.1W4.5W5.5L1.5L1.7L2014-022015-042017-042019-05
WinLossTrend

Nogueira · Last 5

L · Dec · R3
Mauricio RuaRating 5.5
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Whittaker vs. Till · 2020-07
L · KO · R1
Ryan SpannRating 1.9
KO/TKO
UFC 237: Namajunas vs. Andrade · 2019-05
W · KO · R2
Sam AlveyRating 5.2
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Marreta vs. Anders · 2018-09
L · KO · R3
Ryan BaderRating 2.8
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Bader vs. Nogueira · 2016-11
W · KO · R1
Patrick CumminsRating 5
KO/TKO
UFC 198: Werdum vs Miocic · 2016-05

Cummins · Last 5

L · KO · R1
Ed HermanRating 1.7
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Dos Anjos vs. Lee · 2019-05
L · Sub · R1
Misha CirkunovRating 1.5
Submission
UFC Fight Night: Oezdemir vs. Smith · 2018-10
L · Dec · R3
Corey AndersonRating 5.5
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Barboza vs. Lee · 2018-04
W · Dec · R3
Gian VillanteRating 4.5
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Weidman vs. Gastelum · 2017-07
W · Dec · R3
Jan BlachowiczRating 5.1
Decision
UFC 210: Cormier vs. Johnson 2 · 2017-04

News & Media

Rogerio Nogueira · Patrick Cummins
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