UFC 128: Shogun vs Jones
Newark, USA
19 Mar 2011
Middleweight
VS
50%
Miller
50%
Marquardt
Win Probability
Decision
Round 3 · 5:00
DM
Dan Miller
14 – 8
6'1"74" reachOrthodox44 yrs2-fight slideWell-Rounded
CFR 17
NM
Nate Marquardt
"The Great"
35 – 19
Well-Rounded3-fight slide47 yrsOrthodox74" reach6'0"
CFR 17

Combatrics Intelligence

Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics

Edge: Miller

This is a genuine toss-up — Miller at 50% vs Marquardt at 50% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.

Key angles

Marquardt has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.

Risk flags

Miller's chin rating of 66 flags durability concerns based on KO history.

Marquardt has a chin rating of 0 — a potential KO vulnerability.

Miller
Marquardt
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
6'1"+
Height
6'0"
74"
Reach
74"
44+
Age
47
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Miller
Marquardt
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
16.9
16.8
43.7
Performance Avg
48.6
42
Quality of Victory
46
51
Momentum Score
59
Miller
Marquardt
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
0.8
1.1
37%
Strike Accuracy
52%
0.9
Striking Style Score (/10)
5.7
0 KOs
KO Finishes
6 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
2
Head
20
1
Body
0
0
Leg
1
RangeRange
2Distance9
1Clinch0
0Ground12
Miller
Marquardt
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
0.2
Sub Attempts / fight
0.1
6.1
Grappling Style Score (/10)
2.6
4.3
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
1.8
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Miller
Marquardt
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
66
0
Moderate
Verdict
2 consec. KOs
1
KO/TKO Losses
5
0
Sub Losses
0
Avg R1.0 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R1.2 stoppage
1 fight ago
Last KO loss
4 fights ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
13/22 fights
Chin rating based on
25/54 fights
Miller
Marquardt
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
51
59
2-fight 📉 slide
Current form
3-fight 📉 slide
L · Dec · R3
L · KO · R1
W · Sub · R3
L · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
Last 5
L · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
W · KO · R2
L · KO · R1
Miller
Marquardt
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
67%
69%
0
KO / TKO Wins
6
4
Submission Wins
3
2
Decision Wins
4

Style Fingerprint

Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10

Miller
Marquardt
Striking0.9 / 5.7Volume3.6 / 3.5Grappling6.1 / 2.6Wrestling4.3 / 1.8Submission6.7 / 2.3Pressure6.0 / 6.4
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
0.9
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
5.7
6.1
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
2.6
4.3
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
1.8
6.7
Submission
Submission attack frequency
2.3
6.0
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
6.4
3.6
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
3.5
Miller
Strike Zones
Marquardt
Miller
Attacking
2HEAD1BODY0LEGS3 landed
Absorbing
20HEAD0BODY1LEGS21 absorbed
Marquardt
Attacking
20HEAD0BODY1LEGS21 landed
Absorbing
2HEAD1BODY0LEGS3 absorbed
Targeting Overlap
🎯Miller targets the head (67% of attacks) — Marquardt absorbs 67% of strikes there
🎯Marquardt targets the head (95% of attacks) — Miller absorbs 95% of strikes there

Round by Round

This fight · per-round breakdown

Miller
RND
Marquardt
0/0R00/0

Miller · QOF Timeline

Avg: 4.9
0105.0W4.5W5.0W5.5L5.5L5.5L5.2W4.5W5.5L5.5L5.5W1.5L5.5L2008-092010-022011-032015-07
WinLossTrend

Marquardt · QOF Timeline

Avg: 4.5
0104.5W4.5W5.2W4.5W1.5L5.2W5.5L5.0W5.5W5.0W5.5L5.0W5.5L4.5W1.5L1.5L5.0W5.5L3.1L5.2W1.5L5.2W5.5L5.5L5.5L2005-082008-092013-032016-102017-11
WinLossTrend

Miller · Last 5

L · Dec · R3
Trevor SmithRating 5.5
Decision
The Ultimate Fighter: American Top Team vs. Blackzilians Finale · 2015-07
L · KO · R1
Jordan MeinRating 1.5
KO/TKO
UFC 158: St-Pierre vs Diaz · 2013-03
W · Sub · R3
Ricardo FunchRating 5.5
Submission
UFC on FX: Maynard vs Guida · 2012-06
L · Dec · R3
Rousimar PalharesRating 5.5
Decision
UFC 134: Silva vs Okami · 2011-08
L · Dec · R3
Nate MarquardtRating 5.5
Decision
UFC 128: Shogun vs Jones · 2011-03

Marquardt · Last 5

L · Dec · R3
Cezar FerreiraRating 5.5
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Poirier vs. Pettis · 2017-11
L · Dec · R3
Vitor BelfortRating 5.5
Decision
UFC 212: Aldo vs. Holloway · 2017-06
L · Dec · R3
Sam AlveyRating 5.5
Decision
UFC on FOX: Shevchenko vs. Pena · 2017-01
W · KO · R2
Tamdan McCroryRating 5.2
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Lineker vs. Dodson · 2016-10
L · KO · R1
Thiago SantosRating 1.5
KO/TKO
UFC 198: Werdum vs Miocic · 2016-05

News & Media

Dan Miller · Nate Marquardt
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