UFC on FOX: Teixeira vs Evans
Tampa, USA
16 Apr 2016
Women's Bantamweight
VS
35%
Correia
65%
Pennington
Win Probability
Decision
Round 3 · 5:00
Combatrics Intelligence
Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics
Edge: Pennington
Pennington holds a meaningful edge at 65% per the CFR ratings — but Correia has real paths to victory.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 22 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Striking split: Correia throws more volume but Pennington connects at a higher rate — quality vs quantity.
Risk flags
Correia's chin rating of 38 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
Pennington has a chin rating of 68 — a potential KO vulnerability.
Correia
Pennington
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'5"
Height
+5'7"
64"
Reach
+67"
42
Age
+37
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Correia
Pennington
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
25.0
46.8
36.8
Performance Avg
46.8
31
Quality of Victory
32
88
Momentum Score
80
Correia
Pennington
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.7
1.4
46%
Strike Accuracy
50%
2.9
Striking Style Score (/10)
1.4
1 KOs
KO Finishes
0 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
16
Head
16
5
Body
12
2
Leg
3
RangeRange
13Distance17
10Clinch14
0Ground0
Correia
Pennington
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
0.1
Sub Attempts / fight
—
1.9
Grappling Style Score (/10)
3.7
1.3
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
2.6
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Correia
Pennington
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
38
68
KO risk
Verdict
Moderate
2
KO/TKO Losses
1
1
Sub Losses
0
Avg R2.0 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R5.0 stoppage
4 fights ago
Last KO loss
10 fights ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
12/17 fights
Chin rating based on
19/26 fights
Correia
Pennington
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
88
80
2-fight 📉 slide
Current form
L · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
L · Sub · R3
L · KO · R3
Last 5
L · Dec · R5
W · Dec · R5
W · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
W · Sub · R2
Correia
Pennington
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
20%
23%
1
KO / TKO Wins
0
0
Submission Wins
3
4
Decision Wins
10
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Correia
Pennington
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
2.9
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
1.4
1.9
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
3.7
1.3
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
2.6
0.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
2.3
2.8
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
3.7
7.3
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
7.5
CorreiaPennington
Strike Zones
Correia
Attacking
23 landedAbsorbing
31 absorbedPennington
Attacking
31 landedAbsorbing
23 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Correia targets the head (70% of attacks) — Pennington absorbs 70% of strikes there
🎯Pennington targets the head (52% of attacks) — Correia absorbs 52% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Correia
RND
Pennington
0/0R00/0
Correia · QOF Timeline
Avg: 4.6WinLossTrend
Pennington · QOF Timeline
Avg: 5.4WinLossTrend
Correia · Last 5
L · Dec · R3
Karol RosaRating 6.2Decision
UFC Fight Night: Santos vs. Walker · 2021-10
L · Dec · R3
Pannie KianzadRating 5.5Decision
UFC Fight Night: Whittaker vs. Till · 2020-07
W · Dec · R3
Sijara EubanksRating 4.5Decision
UFC Fight Night: Rodriguez vs. Stephens · 2019-09
L · Sub · R3
Irene AldanaRating 4.8Submission
UFC 237: Namajunas vs. Andrade · 2019-05
L · KO · R3
Holly HolmRating 2.9KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Holm vs. Correia · 2017-06
Pennington · Last 5
L · Dec · R5
Julianna PenaRating 7Decision
UFC 307: Pereira vs. Rountree Jr. · 2024-10
W · Dec · R5
Mayra Bueno SilvaRating 5.1Decision
UFC 297: Strickland vs. Du Plessis · 2024-01
W · Dec · R3
Ketlen VieiraRating 4.9Decision
UFC Fight Night: Strickland vs. Imavov · 2023-01
W · Dec · R3
Aspen LaddRating 4.5Decision
UFC 273: Volkanovski vs. The Korean Zombie · 2022-04
W · Sub · R2
Macy ChiassonRating 6.6Submission
UFC Fight Night: Lewis vs. Daukaus · 2021-12