UFC 231: Holloway vs. Ortega
Toronto, Canada
8 Dec 2018
Light Heavyweight
VS
32%
Manuwa
68%
Santos
Win Probability
KO/TKO
Round 2 · 0:41
JM
Jimi Manuwa
"Poster Boy"
17 – 6
6'1"79" reachOrthodox46 yrs4-fight slideWell-Rounded
CFR 15
TS
Thiago Santos
"Marreta"
22 – 11
Knockout Artist2-fight slide42 yrsOrthodox76" reach6'2"
CFR 32

Combatrics Intelligence

Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics

Edge: Santos

Santos holds a meaningful edge at 68% per the CFR ratings — but Manuwa has real paths to victory.

Key angles

The CFR gap of 17 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.

Striking split: Santos throws more volume but Manuwa connects at a higher rate — quality vs quantity.

Risk flags

Manuwa's chin rating of 0 flags durability concerns based on KO history.

Santos has a chin rating of 0 — a potential KO vulnerability.

Manuwa
Santos
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
6'1"
Height
+6'2"
79"+
Reach
76"
46
Age
+42
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Manuwa
Santos
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
15.1
32.2
45.2
Performance Avg
54.0
42
Quality of Victory
51
53
Momentum Score
91
Manuwa
Santos
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.4
1.6
53%
Strike Accuracy
51%
6.0
Striking Style Score (/10)
9.0
3 KOs
KO Finishes
11 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
0
Head
7
1
Body
2
0
Leg
0
RangeRange
1Distance5
0Clinch4
0Ground0
Manuwa
Santos
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
—
Sub Attempts / fight
0.1
0.4
Grappling Style Score (/10)
0.5
0.3
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
0.4
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Manuwa
Santos
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
0
0
2 consec. KOs
Verdict
KO risk
5
KO/TKO Losses
3
0
Sub Losses
3
Avg R1.6 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R2.0 stoppage
Most recent fight
Last KO loss
Most recent fight
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
12/23 fights
Chin rating based on
24/33 fights
Manuwa
Santos
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
53
91
4-fight 📉 slide
Current form
2-fight 📉 slide
L · KO · R1
L · KO · R2
L · Dec · R3
L · KO · R1
W · KO · R1
Last 5
L · KO · R4
L · Dec · R5
W · Dec · R5
L · Dec · R3
L · Sub · R3
Manuwa
Santos
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
50%
79%
3
KO / TKO Wins
11
0
Submission Wins
0
3
Decision Wins
3

Style Fingerprint

Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10

Manuwa
Santos
Striking6.0 / 9.0Volume2.3 / 2.9Grappling0.4 / 0.5Wrestling0.3 / 0.4Submission0.0 / 0.0Pressure5.0 / 7.3
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
6.0
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
9.0
0.4
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
0.5
0.3
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
0.4
0.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
5.0
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
7.3
2.3
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
2.9
Manuwa
Strike Zones
Santos
Manuwa
Attacking
0HEAD1BODY0LEGS1 landed
Absorbing
7HEAD2BODY0LEGS9 absorbed
Santos
Attacking
7HEAD2BODY0LEGS9 landed
Absorbing
0HEAD1BODY0LEGS1 absorbed
Targeting Overlap
🎯Manuwa targets the body (100% of attacks) — Santos absorbs 100% of strikes there
🎯Santos targets the head (78% of attacks) — Manuwa absorbs 78% of strikes there

Round by Round

This fight · per-round breakdown

Manuwa
RND
Santos
0/0R00/0
0/0R10/0

Manuwa · QOF Timeline

Avg: 3.9
0104.2W4.0W5.2W2.1L5.1W2.8L5.8W5.0W2.3L6.1L2.8L1.6L2012-092014-032016-102018-032019-06
WinLossTrend

Santos · QOF Timeline

Avg: 4.8
0101.5L5.0W5.5L5.0W5.0W4.5W5.0W1.5L1.5L5.2W6.3W5.9W6.4W1.5L5.1W6.0W5.2W5.8W7.3L3.1L5.6L5.3W7.0L4.6L2013-082016-052018-022019-072022-08
WinLossTrend

Manuwa · Last 5

L · KO · R1
Aleksandar RakicRating 1.6
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Gustafsson vs. Smith · 2019-06
L · KO · R2
Thiago SantosRating 2.8
KO/TKO
UFC 231: Holloway vs. Ortega · 2018-12
L · Dec · R3
Jan BlachowiczRating 6.1
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Werdum vs. Volkov · 2018-03
L · KO · R1
Volkan OezdemirRating 2.3
KO/TKO
UFC 214: Cormier vs. Jones 2 · 2017-07
W · KO · R1
Corey AndersonRating 5
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Manuwa vs. Anderson · 2017-03

Santos · Last 5

L · KO · R4
Jamahal HillRating 4.6
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Santos vs. Hill · 2022-08
L · Dec · R5
Magomed AnkalaevRating 7
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Santos vs. Ankalaev · 2022-03
W · Dec · R5
Johnny WalkerRating 5.3
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Santos vs. Walker · 2021-10
L · Dec · R3
Aleksandar RakicRating 5.6
Decision
UFC 259: Blachowicz vs. Adesanya · 2021-03
L · Sub · R3
Glover TeixeiraRating 3.1
Submission
UFC Fight Night: Santos vs. Teixeira · 2020-11

News & Media

Jimi Manuwa · Thiago Santos
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