UFC on FX: Guillard vs Miller
Nashville, USA
20 Jan 2012
Lightweight
VS
88%
Camoes
12%
Hayden
Win Probability
Submission
Round 1 · 4:03
FC
Fabricio Camoes
"Morango"
14 – 9
5'10"71" reachOrthodox47 yrs3-fight slideSubmission Hunter
CFR 15
TH
Tommy Hayden
"Wild Card"
11 – 3
Well-Rounded2-fight slide40 yrsSouthpaw5'9"
CFR 2

Combatrics Intelligence

Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics

Edge: Camoes

Camoes is a strong favourite at 88% win probability per the CFR ratings. The data points decisively in one direction.

Key angles

The CFR gap of 13 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.

Camoes has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 54 points.

Striking split: Hayden throws more volume but Camoes connects at a higher rate — quality vs quantity.

Risk flags

Camoes's chin rating of 62 flags durability concerns based on KO history.

Camoes
Hayden
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'10"+
Height
5'9"
71"
Reach
47
Age
+40
Orthodox
Stance
Southpaw
Camoes
Hayden
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
15.2
2.1
40.4
Performance Avg
0.0
54
Quality of Victory
0
20
Momentum Score
0
Camoes
Hayden
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
0.7
2.6
31%
Strike Accuracy
27%
0.4
Striking Style Score (/10)
0.0
0 KOs
KO Finishes
0 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
5
Head
5
0
Body
1
1
Leg
1
RangeRange
2Distance6
0Clinch1
4Ground0
Camoes
Hayden
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
8.0
/ 10
0.0
/ 10
5.6
Wrestling Style (/10)
0.0
10.0
Submission Style (/10)
0.0
1
Submission wins
0
Per-fight takedown stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Camoes
Hayden
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
62
76
Never stopped
Verdict
Never stopped
0
KO/TKO Losses
0
3
Sub Losses
2
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
6/23 fights
Chin rating based on
2/14 fights
Camoes
Hayden
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
20
0
3-fight 📉 slide
Current form
2-fight 📉 slide
L · Sub · R1
L · Sub · R1
L · Dec · R3
W · Sub · R1
L · Sub · R2
Last 5
L · Sub · R1
L · Sub · R1
Camoes
Hayden
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
100%
0%
0
KO / TKO Wins
0
1
Submission Wins
0
0
Decision Wins
0

Style Fingerprint

Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10

Camoes
Hayden
Striking0.4 / 0.0Volume0.4 / 0.0Grappling8.0 / 0.0Wrestling5.6 / 0.0Submission10.0 / 0.0Pressure7.6 / 0.0
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
0.4
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
0.0
8.0
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
0.0
5.6
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
0.0
10.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
7.6
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
0.0
0.4
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
0.0
Camoes
Strike Zones
Hayden
Camoes
Attacking
5HEAD0BODY1LEGS6 landed
Absorbing
5HEAD1BODY1LEGS7 absorbed
Hayden
Attacking
5HEAD1BODY1LEGS7 landed
Absorbing
5HEAD0BODY1LEGS6 absorbed
Targeting Overlap
🎯Camoes targets the head (83% of attacks) — Hayden absorbs 83% of strikes there
🎯Hayden targets the head (71% of attacks) — Camoes absorbs 71% of strikes there

Round by Round

This fight · per-round breakdown

Camoes
RND
Hayden
0/0R00/0

Camoes · QOF Timeline

Avg: 3.3
0102.8L5.0W5.5L1.9L1.5L2010-032012-012012-072013-122014-10
WinLossTrend

Hayden · QOF Timeline

Avg: 1.5
0101.5L1.5L2012-012012-08
WinLossTrend

Camoes · Last 5

L · Sub · R1
Anthony Rocco MartinRating 1.5
Submission
UFC 179: Aldo vs Mendes 2 · 2014-10
L · Sub · R1
Jim MillerRating 1.9
Submission
UFC 168: Weidman vs Silva 2 · 2013-12
L · Dec · R3
Melvin GuillardRating 5.5
Decision
UFC 148: Silva vs Sonnen 2 · 2012-07
W · Sub · R1
Tommy HaydenRating 5
Submission
UFC on FX: Guillard vs Miller · 2012-01
L · Sub · R2
Kurt PellegrinoRating 2.8
Submission
UFC 111: St-Pierre vs Hardy · 2010-03

Hayden · Last 2

L · Sub · R1
Dennis BermudezRating 1.5
Submission
UFC 150: Henderson vs Edgar II · 2012-08
L · Sub · R1
Fabricio CamoesRating 1.5
Submission
UFC on FX: Guillard vs Miller · 2012-01

News & Media

Fabricio Camoes · Tommy Hayden
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