UFC Fight Night: Rodriguez vs. Waterson
Las Vegas, USA
8 May 2021
Welterweight
VS
28%
Aguilera
72%
Harris
Win Probability
Submission
Round 1 · 2:52
CA
Christian Aguilera
"The Beast"
14 – 8
5'9"72" reachSwitch34 yrs2-fight slideKnockout Artist
CFR 19
Carlston
Carlston Harris
"Mocambique"
19 – 7
Well-Rounded2-fight slide38 yrsOrthodox76" reach6'0"
CFR 51

Combatrics Intelligence

Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics

Edge: Harris

Harris is a strong favourite at 72% win probability per the CFR ratings. The data points decisively in one direction.

Key angles

The CFR gap of 31 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.

Aguilera has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 14 points.

Harris has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.

Risk flags

Harris has a chin rating of 34 — a potential KO vulnerability.

Aguilera
Harris
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'9"
Height
+6'0"
72"
Reach
+76"
34+
Age
38
Switch
Stance
Orthodox
Aguilera
Harris
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
19.2
50.5
49.3
Performance Avg
50.5
60
Quality of Victory
46
43
Momentum Score
51
Aguilera
Harris
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.2
1.6
38%
Strike Accuracy
44%
10.0
Striking Style Score (/10)
3.6
1 KOs
KO Finishes
1 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
1
Head
3
0
Body
1
0
Leg
1
RangeRange
1Distance5
0Clinch0
0Ground0
Aguilera
Harris
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
0.0
/ 10
4.6
/ 10
0.0
Wrestling Style (/10)
3.2
0.0
Submission Style (/10)
5.0
0
Submission wins
2
Per-fight takedown stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Aguilera
Harris
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
76
34
Never stopped
Verdict
2 consec. KOs
0
KO/TKO Losses
3
2
Sub Losses
0
—
KO round context
Avg R1.7 stoppage
—
Last KO loss
Most recent fight
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
3/22 fights
Chin rating based on
7/26 fights
Aguilera
Harris
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
43
51
2-fight 📉 slide
Current form
2-fight 📉 slide
L · Sub · R1
L · Sub · R2
W · KO · R1
Last 5
L · KO · R3
L · KO · R1
W · Sub · R3
W · Dec · R3
L · KO · R1
Aguilera
Harris
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
100%
75%
1
KO / TKO Wins
1
0
Submission Wins
2
0
Decision Wins
1

Style Fingerprint

Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10

Aguilera
Harris
Striking10.0 / 3.6Volume0.7 / 3.1Grappling0.0 / 4.6Wrestling0.0 / 3.2Submission0.0 / 5.0Pressure8.0 / 7.0
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
10.0
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
3.6
0.0
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
4.6
0.0
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
3.2
0.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
5.0
8.0
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
7.0
0.7
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
3.1
Aguilera
Strike Zones
Harris
Aguilera
Attacking
1HEAD0BODY0LEGS1 landed
Absorbing
3HEAD1BODY1LEGS5 absorbed
Harris
Attacking
3HEAD1BODY1LEGS5 landed
Absorbing
1HEAD0BODY0LEGS1 absorbed
Targeting Overlap
🎯Aguilera targets the head (100% of attacks) — Harris absorbs 100% of strikes there
🎯Harris targets the head (60% of attacks) — Aguilera absorbs 60% of strikes there

Round by Round

This fight · per-round breakdown

Aguilera
RND
Harris
0/0R00/0

Aguilera · QOF Timeline

Avg: 3.7
0105.0W3.9L2.3L2020-062020-082021-05
WinLossTrend

Harris · QOF Timeline

Avg: 4.7
0105.0W5.0W3.6L5.0W6.9W2.9L4.5L2021-052022-022023-082025-01
WinLossTrend

Aguilera · Last 3

L · Sub · R1
Carlston HarrisRating 2.3
Submission
UFC Fight Night: Rodriguez vs. Waterson · 2021-05
L · Sub · R2
Sean BradyRating 3.9
Submission
UFC Fight Night: Smith vs. Rakic · 2020-08
W · KO · R1
Anthony IvyRating 5
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Eye vs. Calvillo · 2020-06

Harris · Last 5

L · KO · R3
Santiago PonzinibbioRating 4.5
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Dern vs. Ribas 2 · 2025-01
L · KO · R1
Khaos WilliamsRating 2.9
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Barboza vs. Murphy · 2024-05
W · Sub · R3
Jeremiah WellsRating 6.9
Submission
UFC Fight Night: Sandhagen vs. Font · 2023-08
W · Dec · R3
Jared GoodenRating 5
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Yan vs. Dvalishvili · 2023-03
L · KO · R1
Shavkat RakhmonovRating 3.6
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Hermansson vs. Strickland · 2022-02

News & Media

Christian Aguilera · Carlston Harris
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