METRICS GUIDE
Every stat on this page, explained
All stats are calculated from official fight data. Style scores are Combatrics proprietary ratings updated after every event.
UFC Fight Night: Rodriguez vs. Waterson
Las Vegas, USA
8 May 2021
Welterweight
VS
29%
Aguilera
71%
Harris
Win Probability
Submission
Round 1 · 2:52
★ Official Result
Carlston HarriswinsSubmissionR1 · 2:52
def. Christian Aguilera · UFC Fight Night: Rodriguez vs. Waterson
Fight Report
Pre-fight analysis · prediction vs result
Prediction vs Result
We predicted
Harris
→
Actual result
Harris wins
Submission · R1
Pre-fight analysis
Harris is a strong favourite at 71% win probability per the CFR ratings. The data points decisively in one direction.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 28 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Aguilera has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 14 points.
Risk flags
Harris has a chin rating of 32 — a potential KO vulnerability.
This Fight — Statistics
Actual stats from this bout
AguileraHarris
0
Sig. Strikes
0
0.0
Strikes / min (SLpM)
0.0
—
Strike Accuracy
—
Aguilera
Harris
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'9"
Height
+6'0"
72"
Reach
+76"
34+
Age
39
Switch
Stance
Orthodox
Aguilera
Harris
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
19.2
47.5
49.3
Performance Avg
47.6
60
Quality of Victory
46
43
Momentum Score
45
Aguilera
Harris
Striking
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
10.0
/ 10
3.5
/ 10
8.0
Style: Pressure
6.8
0.7
Style: Volume
3.0
1 KO wins
Finish Rate (strikes)
1 KO wins
Per-minute strike stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Strike targetStrike target
1
Head
3
0
Body
1
0
Leg
1
RangeRange
1Distance5
0Clinch0
0Ground0
Aguilera
Harris
Grappling
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
0.0
/ 10
4.6
/ 10
0.0
Wrestling Style (/10)
3.2
0.0
Submission Style (/10)
5.0
0
Submission wins
2
Per-fight takedown stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Aguilera
Harris
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
76
32
Never stopped
Verdict
2 consec. KOs
0
KO/TKO Losses
3
2
Sub Losses
0
—
KO round context
Avg R1.7 stoppage
—
Last KO loss
1 fight ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
3/22 fights
Chin rating based on
8/26 fights
Aguilera
Harris
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
43
45
2-fight 📉 slide
Current form
3-fight 📉 slide
L · Sub · R1
L · Sub · R2
W · KO · R1
Last 5
L · Dec · R3
L · KO · R3
L · KO · R1
W · Sub · R3
W · Dec · R3
Aguilera
Harris
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
100%
75%
1
KO / TKO Wins
1
0
Submission Wins
2
0
Decision Wins
1
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Aguilera
Harris
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
10.0
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
3.5
0.0
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
4.6
0.0
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
3.2
0.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
5.0
8.0
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
6.8
0.7
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
3.0
AguileraHarris
Strike Zones
Aguilera
Attacking
1 landedAbsorbing
5 absorbedHarris
Attacking
5 landedAbsorbing
1 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Aguilera targets the head (100% of attacks) — Harris absorbs 100% of strikes there
🎯Harris targets the head (60% of attacks) — Aguilera absorbs 60% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Aguilera
RND
Harris
0/0R00/0
Aguilera · Last 3
L · Sub · R1
Carlston HarrisSubmission
UFC Fight Night: Rodriguez vs. Waterson · 2021-05
L · Sub · R2
Sean BradySubmission
UFC Fight Night: Smith vs. Rakic · 2020-08
W · KO · R1
Anthony IvyKO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Eye vs. Calvillo · 2020-06
Harris · Last 5
L · Dec · R3
Jake MatthewsDecision
UFC Fight Night: Song vs. Figueiredo · 2026-05
L · KO · R3
Santiago PonzinibbioKO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Dern vs. Ribas 2 · 2025-01
L · KO · R1
Khaos WilliamsKO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Barboza vs. Murphy · 2024-05
W · Sub · R3
Jeremiah WellsSubmission
UFC Fight Night: Sandhagen vs. Font · 2023-08
W · Dec · R3
Jared GoodenDecision
UFC Fight Night: Yan vs. Dvalishvili · 2023-03