UFC 286: Edwards vs. Usman 3
London, United Kingdom
18 Mar 2023
Middleweight
VS
60%
Duncan
40%
Todorovic
Win Probability
KO/TKO
Round 1 · 1:52
Combatrics Intelligence
Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics
Edge: Duncan
Duncan holds a meaningful edge at 60% per the CFR ratings — but Todorovic has real paths to victory.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 22 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Striking split: Todorovic throws more volume but Duncan connects at a higher rate — quality vs quantity.
Risk flags
Todorovic has a chin rating of 8 — a potential KO vulnerability.
Duncan
Todorovic
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
6'2"+
Height
6'1"
79"+
Reach
74"
30+
Age
32
Switch
Stance
Orthodox
Duncan
Todorovic
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
64.8
43.1
59.8
Performance Avg
49.6
48
Quality of Victory
56
72
Momentum Score
13
Duncan
Todorovic
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
2.2
3.4
63%
Strike Accuracy
55%
8.7
Striking Style Score (/10)
8.3
5 KOs
KO Finishes
3 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
3
Head
0
2
Body
2
4
Leg
2
RangeRange
8Distance4
1Clinch0
0Ground0
Duncan
Todorovic
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
0.7
/ 10
2.0
/ 10
0.5
Wrestling Style (/10)
1.4
0.0
Submission Style (/10)
2.5
0
Submission wins
1
Per-fight takedown stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Duncan
Todorovic
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
96
8
Never stopped
Verdict
2 consec. KOs
0
KO/TKO Losses
4
0
Sub Losses
0
—
KO round context
Avg R1.0 stoppage
—
Last KO loss
2 fights ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
9/16 fights
Chin rating based on
10/19 fights
Duncan
Todorovic
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
72
13
4-fight 🔥 win streak
Current form
W · Dec · R3
W · KO · R2
W · KO · R1
W · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
Last 5
W · Sub · R1
L · Dec · R3
L · KO · R1
L · KO · R1
W · KO · R2
Duncan
Todorovic
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
71%
100%
5
KO / TKO Wins
3
0
Submission Wins
1
2
Decision Wins
0
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Duncan
Todorovic
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
8.7
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
8.3
0.7
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
2.0
0.5
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
1.4
0.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
2.5
7.3
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
8.2
3.8
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
0.8
DuncanTodorovic
Strike Zones
Duncan
Attacking
9 landedAbsorbing
4 absorbedTodorovic
Attacking
4 landedAbsorbing
9 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Duncan targets the legs (44% of attacks) — Todorovic absorbs 44% of strikes there
🎯Todorovic targets the body (50% of attacks) — Duncan absorbs 50% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Duncan
RND
Todorovic
0/0R00/0
Duncan · QOF Timeline
Avg: 5.9WinLossTrend
Todorovic · QOF Timeline
Avg: 4.5WinLossTrend
Duncan · Last 5
W · Dec · R3
Roman DolidzeRating 5.9Decision
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W · KO · R2
Marco TulioRating 6.6KO/TKO
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W · KO · R1
Eryk AndersRating 5.8KO/TKO
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W · Dec · R3
Andrey PulyaevRating 5.6Decision
UFC Fight Night: Edwards vs. Brady · 2025-03
L · Dec · R3
Gregory RodriguesRating 7.1Decision
UFC 304: Edwards vs. Muhammad 2 · 2024-07
Todorovic · Last 5
W · Sub · R1
Jose Daniel MedinaRating 5Submission
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L · Dec · R3
Zach ReeseRating 6.5Decision
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L · KO · R1
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L · KO · R1
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UFC 286: Edwards vs. Usman 3 · 2023-03
W · KO · R2
Jordan WrightRating 5.2KO/TKO
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