UFC Fight Night: Thompson vs. Pettis
Nashville, USA
23 Mar 2019
Featherweight
VS
39%
Pena
61%
Peterson
Win Probability
Decision
Round 3 · 5:00
Combatrics Intelligence
Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics
Edge: Peterson
Peterson holds a meaningful edge at 61% per the CFR ratings — but Pena has real paths to victory.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 10 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Striking split: Peterson throws more volume but Pena connects at a higher rate — quality vs quantity.
Pena
Peterson
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
6'3"+
Height
5'10"
75"+
Reach
70"
32+
Age
35
Southpaw
Stance
Orthodox
Pena
Peterson
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
18.3
28.4
46.5
Performance Avg
36.0
36
Quality of Victory
35
68
Momentum Score
25
Pena
Peterson
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.2
1.4
44%
Strike Accuracy
40%
3.3
Striking Style Score (/10)
4.1
1 KOs
KO Finishes
1 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
11
Head
5
2
Body
1
0
Leg
1
RangeRange
9Distance6
2Clinch1
2Ground0
Pena
Peterson
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
0.4
Sub Attempts / fight
0.1
3.0
Grappling Style Score (/10)
1.6
2.1
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
1.1
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Pena
Peterson
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
84
90
Never stopped
Verdict
Never stopped
0
KO/TKO Losses
0
1
Sub Losses
0
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
8/12 fights
Chin rating based on
8/30 fights
Pena
Peterson
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
68
25
Current form
2-fight 📉 slide
W · Dec · R3
L · Sub · R3
W · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
W · KO · R3
Last 5
L · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
W · KO · R2
L · Dec · R3
Pena
Peterson
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
40%
33%
1
KO / TKO Wins
1
1
Submission Wins
0
3
Decision Wins
2
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Pena
Peterson
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
3.3
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
4.1
3.0
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
1.6
2.1
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
1.1
2.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
4.7
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
3.5
6.0
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
6.1
PenaPeterson
Strike Zones
Pena
Attacking
13 landedAbsorbing
7 absorbedPeterson
Attacking
7 landedAbsorbing
13 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Pena targets the head (85% of attacks) — Peterson absorbs 85% of strikes there
🎯Peterson targets the head (71% of attacks) — Pena absorbs 71% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Pena
RND
Peterson
0/0R00/0
Pena · QOF Timeline
Avg: 5.1WinLossTrend
Peterson · QOF Timeline
Avg: 5.4WinLossTrend
Pena · Last 5
W · Dec · R3
Alexander MunozRating 4.5Decision
UFC Fight Night: Whittaker vs. Gastelum · 2021-04
L · Sub · R3
Khama WorthyRating 4Submission
UFC Fight Night: Poirier vs. Hooker · 2020-06
W · Dec · R3
Steve GarciaRating 6.4Decision
UFC Fight Night: Benavidez vs. Figueiredo · 2020-02
L · Dec · R3
Matt FrevolaRating 5.7Decision
UFC Fight Night: Joanna vs. Waterson · 2019-10
W · KO · R3
Matt WimanRating 5.5KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Moicano vs. The Korean Zombie · 2019-06
Peterson · Last 5
L · Dec · R3
Lucas AlexanderRating 5.5Decision
UFC Fight Night: Vera vs. Sandhagen · 2023-03
L · Dec · R3
Julian ErosaRating 5.7Decision
UFC Fight Night: Hermansson vs. Strickland · 2022-02
W · Dec · R3
Chase HooperRating 5.3Decision
UFC 263: Adesanya vs. Vettori 2 · 2021-06
W · KO · R2
Martin BravoRating 5.2KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Rodriguez vs. Stephens · 2019-09
L · Dec · R3
Alex CaceresRating 5.7Decision
UFC Fight Night: Dos Anjos vs. Edwards · 2019-07