UFC Fight Night: Diaz vs Neer
Omaha, USA
17 Sept 2008
Middleweight
VS
37%
Belcher
63%
Herman
Win Probability
Decision
Round 3 · 5:00
AB
Alan Belcher
"The Talent"
18 – 8
6'2"75" reachOrthodox42 yrs2-fight slideWell-Rounded
CFR 22
EH
Ed Herman
"Short Fuse"
27 – 16
Well-Rounded2-fight slide45 yrsOrthodox77" reach6'1"
CFR 39

Combatrics Intelligence

Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics

Edge: Herman

Herman holds a meaningful edge at 63% per the CFR ratings — but Belcher has real paths to victory.

Key angles

The CFR gap of 16 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.

Striking split: Belcher throws more volume but Herman connects at a higher rate — quality vs quantity.

Risk flags

Belcher's chin rating of 58 flags durability concerns based on KO history.

Herman has a chin rating of 0 — a potential KO vulnerability.

Belcher
Herman
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
6'2"+
Height
6'1"
75"
Reach
+77"
42+
Age
45
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Belcher
Herman
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
22.4
38.7
53.0
Performance Avg
47.4
48
Quality of Victory
44
100
Momentum Score
82
Belcher
Herman
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.4
1.0
43%
Strike Accuracy
47%
5.6
Striking Style Score (/10)
4.1
4 KOs
KO Finishes
4 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
10
Head
20
0
Body
3
2
Leg
0
RangeRange
10Distance18
2Clinch0
0Ground5
Belcher
Herman
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
0.1
Sub Attempts / fight
0.2
2.9
Grappling Style Score (/10)
3.8
2.0
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
2.7
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Belcher
Herman
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
58
0
KO risk
Verdict
KO risk
1
KO/TKO Losses
4
1
Sub Losses
2
Avg R1.0 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R2.0 stoppage
9 fights ago
Last KO loss
Most recent fight
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
15/26 fights
Chin rating based on
26/43 fights
Belcher
Herman
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
100
82
2-fight 📉 slide
Current form
2-fight 📉 slide
L · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
W · KO · R1
W · KO · R1
W · Sub · R2
Last 5
L · KO · R3
L · Dec · R3
W · Sub · R3
W · Dec · R3
W · KO · R1
Belcher
Herman
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
78%
69%
4
KO / TKO Wins
4
3
Submission Wins
5
2
Decision Wins
4

Style Fingerprint

Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10

Belcher
Herman
Striking5.6 / 4.1Volume2.1 / 3.5Grappling2.9 / 3.8Wrestling2.0 / 2.7Submission3.3 / 3.9Pressure7.2 / 6.4
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
5.6
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
4.1
2.9
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
3.8
2.0
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
2.7
3.3
Submission
Submission attack frequency
3.9
7.2
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
6.4
2.1
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
3.5
Belcher
Strike Zones
Herman
Belcher
Attacking
10HEAD0BODY2LEGS12 landed
Absorbing
20HEAD3BODY0LEGS23 absorbed
Herman
Attacking
20HEAD3BODY0LEGS23 landed
Absorbing
10HEAD0BODY2LEGS12 absorbed
Targeting Overlap
🎯Belcher targets the head (83% of attacks) — Herman absorbs 83% of strikes there
🎯Herman targets the head (87% of attacks) — Belcher absorbs 87% of strikes there

Round by Round

This fight · per-round breakdown

Belcher
RND
Herman
0/0R00/0

Belcher · QOF Timeline

Avg: 4.7
0105.5L5.5W2.8L5.0W4.2W1.5L4.7W5.2W5.5L5.0W5.2W5.0W5.0W5.5L5.5L2006-082007-102009-072012-052013-04
WinLossTrend

Herman · QOF Timeline

Avg: 4.6
0105.5L1.5L5.0W5.2W5.5W2.8L5.5L4.5W2.8L5.0W5.0W5.2W4.5W5.5L4.5W1.8L5.2W4.0L5.5L5.5L5.0W4.5W5.5W6.4L4.4L2006-062009-042014-052019-112023-04
WinLossTrend

Belcher · Last 5

L · Dec · R3
Michael BispingRating 5.5
Decision
UFC 159: Jones vs Sonnen · 2013-04
L · Dec · R3
Yushin OkamiRating 5.5
Decision
UFC 155: Dos Santos vs Velasquez II · 2012-12
W · KO · R1
Rousimar PalharesRating 5
KO/TKO
UFC on FOX: Diaz vs Miller · 2012-05
W · KO · R1
Jason MacDonaldRating 5
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Shields vs Ellenberger · 2011-09
W · Sub · R2
Patrick CoteRating 5.2
Submission
UFC 113: Machida vs Shogun 2 · 2010-05

Herman · Last 5

L · KO · R3
Zak CummingsRating 4.4
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Holloway vs. Allen · 2023-04
L · Dec · R3
Alonzo MenifieldRating 6.4
Decision
UFC 265: Lewis vs. Gane · 2021-08
W · Sub · R3
Mike RodriguezRating 5.5
Submission
UFC Fight Night: Waterson vs. Hill · 2020-09
W · Dec · R3
Khadis IbragimovRating 4.5
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Zabit vs. Kattar · 2019-11
W · KO · R1
Patrick CumminsRating 5
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Dos Anjos vs. Lee · 2019-05

News & Media

Alan Belcher · Ed Herman
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