The Ultimate Fighter: Team Bisping vs Team Miller Finale
Las Vegas, USA
3 Dec 2011
Lightweight
VS
70%
Ferguson
30%
Edwards
Win Probability
Decision
Round 3 · 5:00
Combatrics Intelligence
Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics
Edge: Ferguson
Ferguson is a strong favourite at 70% win probability per the CFR ratings. The data points decisively in one direction.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 26 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Striking split: Ferguson throws more volume but Edwards connects at a higher rate — quality vs quantity.
Risk flags
Ferguson's chin rating of 12 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
Edwards has a chin rating of 30 — a potential KO vulnerability.
Ferguson
Edwards
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'11"+
Height
5'9"
76"+
Reach
73"
42+
Age
49
Orthodox
Stance
Southpaw
Ferguson
Edwards
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
45.2
19.3
54.2
Performance Avg
47.6
49
Quality of Victory
46
52
Momentum Score
85
Ferguson
Edwards
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.9
1.3
47%
Strike Accuracy
47%
3.3
Striking Style Score (/10)
6.0
3 KOs
KO Finishes
5 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
8
Head
11
2
Body
0
3
Leg
6
RangeRange
13Distance17
0Clinch0
0Ground0
Ferguson
Edwards
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
0.1
Sub Attempts / fight
0.1
3.8
Grappling Style Score (/10)
2.3
2.7
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
1.6
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Ferguson
Edwards
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
12
30
KO risk
Verdict
KO risk
2
KO/TKO Losses
1
3
Sub Losses
3
Avg R3.5 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R1.0 stoppage
4 fights ago
Last KO loss
8 fights ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
24/37 fights
Chin rating based on
21/64 fights
Ferguson
Edwards
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
52
85
8-fight 📉 slide
Current form
4-fight 📉 slide
L · Sub · R1
L · Dec · R3
L · Sub · R3
L · Sub · R4
L · KO · R2
Last 5
L · Sub · R1
L · Sub · R3
Upcoming
L · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
Ferguson
Edwards
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
60%
70%
3
KO / TKO Wins
5
6
Submission Wins
2
6
Decision Wins
3
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Ferguson
Edwards
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
3.3
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
6.0
3.8
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
2.3
2.7
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
1.6
4.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
2.0
6.1
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
6.4
3.4
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
3.4
FergusonEdwards
Strike Zones
Ferguson
Attacking
13 landedAbsorbing
17 absorbedEdwards
Attacking
17 landedAbsorbing
13 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Ferguson targets the head (62% of attacks) — Edwards absorbs 62% of strikes there
🎯Edwards targets the head (65% of attacks) — Ferguson absorbs 65% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Ferguson
RND
Edwards
0/0R00/0
Ferguson · QOF Timeline
Avg: 5.0WinLossTrend
Edwards · QOF Timeline
Avg: 4.6WinLossTrend
Ferguson · Last 5
L · Sub · R1
Michael ChiesaRating 2.3Submission
UFC Fight Night: Sandhagen vs. Nurmagomedov · 2024-08
L · Dec · R3
Paddy PimblettRating 7.2Decision
UFC 296: Edwards vs. Covington · 2023-12
L · Sub · R3
King GreenRating 4.7Submission
UFC 291: Poirier vs. Gaethje 2 · 2023-07
L · Sub · R4
Nate DiazRating 3.4Submission
UFC 279: Diaz vs. Ferguson · 2022-09
L · KO · R2
Michael ChandlerRating 3.5KO/TKO
UFC 274: Oliveira vs. Gaethje · 2022-05
Edwards · Last 5
L · Sub · R1
Akbarh ArreolaRating 1.5Submission
UFC Fight Night: Edgar vs Swanson · 2014-11
L · Sub · R3
Piotr HallmannRating 4Submission
UFC Fight Night: Henderson vs Khabilov · 2014-06
Upcoming
Yancy MedeirosUFC Fight Night: Fight for the Troops 3 · 2013-11
L · Dec · R3
Daron CruickshankRating 5.5Decision
UFC on FOX: Johnson vs Moraga · 2013-07
L · Dec · R3
Isaac Vallie-FlaggRating 5.5Decision
UFC 156: Aldo vs Edgar · 2013-02