UFC 268: Usman vs. Covington 2
New York City, USA
6 Nov 2021
Middleweight
VS
84%
Pereira
16%
Michailidis
Win Probability
KO/TKO
Round 2 · 0:18
Combatrics Intelligence
Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics
Edge: Pereira
Pereira is a strong favourite at 84% win probability per the CFR ratings. The data points decisively in one direction.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 62 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Pereira has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 47 points.
Pereira has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.
Risk flags
Michailidis has a chin rating of 54 — a potential KO vulnerability.
Pereira
Michailidis
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
6'4"+
Height
6'0"
79"+
Reach
76"
38
Age
+37
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Pereira
Michailidis
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
76.5
14.4
76.4
Performance Avg
25.0
72
Quality of Victory
25
78
Momentum Score
28
Pereira
Michailidis
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
2.3
1.1
68%
Strike Accuracy
44%
9.7
Striking Style Score (/10)
0.5
8 KOs
KO Finishes
0 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
2
Head
0
0
Body
0
0
Leg
0
RangeRange
1Distance0
0Clinch0
1Ground0
Pereira
Michailidis
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
0.5
/ 10
2.4
/ 10
0.3
Wrestling Style (/10)
1.7
0.0
Submission Style (/10)
0.0
0
Submission wins
0
Per-fight takedown stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Pereira
Michailidis
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
76
54
Moderate
Verdict
KO risk
1
KO/TKO Losses
2
0
Sub Losses
0
Avg R2.0 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R1.5 stoppage
8 fights ago
Last KO loss
1 fight ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
13/16 fights
Chin rating based on
4/19 fights
Pereira
Michailidis
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
78
28
Current form
2-fight 📉 slide
Upcoming
W · KO · R1
L · Dec · R5
W · KO · R4
W · KO · R2
Last 5
L · Dec · R3
L · KO · R2
W · Dec · R3
L · KO · R1
Pereira
Michailidis
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
80%
0%
8
KO / TKO Wins
0
0
Submission Wins
0
2
Decision Wins
1
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Pereira
Michailidis
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
9.7
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
0.5
0.5
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
2.4
0.3
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
1.7
0.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
8.1
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
0.8
3.3
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
8.5
PereiraMichailidis
Strike Zones
Pereira
Attacking
2 landedAbsorbing
0 absorbedMichailidis
Attacking
0 landedAbsorbing
2 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Pereira targets the head (100% of attacks) — Michailidis absorbs 100% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Pereira
RND
Michailidis
0/0R00/0
0/0R10/0
Pereira · QOF Timeline
Avg: 6.0WinLossTrend
Michailidis · QOF Timeline
Avg: 4.7WinLossTrend
Pereira · Last 5
Upcoming
Ciryl GaneUFC Freedom 250 · 2026-06
W · KO · R1
Magomed AnkalaevRating 6.5KO/TKO
UFC 320: Ankalaev vs. Pereira 2 · 2025-10
L · Dec · R5
Magomed AnkalaevRating 7Decision
UFC 313: Pereira vs. Ankalaev · 2025-03
W · KO · R4
Khalil Rountree Jr.Rating 6.3KO/TKO
UFC 307: Pereira vs. Rountree Jr. · 2024-10
W · KO · R2
Jiri ProchazkaRating 6.8KO/TKO
UFC 303: Pereira vs. Prochazka 2 · 2024-06
Michailidis · Last 4
L · Dec · R3
Rinat FakhretdinovRating 7.1Decision
UFC Fight Night: Volkov vs. Rozenstruik · 2022-06
L · KO · R2
Alex PereiraRating 4.8KO/TKO
UFC 268: Usman vs. Covington 2 · 2021-11
W · Dec · R3
KB BhullarRating 4.5Decision
UFC Fight Night: Reyes vs. Prochazka · 2021-05
L · KO · R1
Modestas BukauskasRating 2.3KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Kattar vs. Ige · 2020-07