UFC Fight Night: Waterson vs. Hill
Las Vegas, USA
12 Sept 2020
Light Heavyweight
VS
59%
Herman
41%
Rodriguez
Win Probability
Submission
Round 3 · 2:41
EH
Ed Herman
"Short Fuse"
27 – 16
6'1"77" reachOrthodox45 yrs2-fight slideWell-Rounded
CFR 39
MR
Mike Rodriguez
"Slo Mike"
11 – 7
Knockout Artist3-fight slide37 yrsSouthpaw82" reach6'4"
CFR 27

Combatrics Intelligence

Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics

Edge: Herman

This is a genuine toss-up — Herman at 59% vs Rodriguez at 41% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.

Key angles

The CFR gap of 12 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.

Rodriguez has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 16 points.

Rodriguez has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.

Risk flags

Herman's chin rating of 0 flags durability concerns based on KO history.

Rodriguez has a chin rating of 50 — a potential KO vulnerability.

Herman
Rodriguez
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
6'1"
Height
+6'4"
77"
Reach
+82"
45
Age
+37
Orthodox
Stance
Southpaw
Herman
Rodriguez
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
38.7
26.6
47.4
Performance Avg
47.4
44
Quality of Victory
60
82
Momentum Score
26
Herman
Rodriguez
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.0
2.2
47%
Strike Accuracy
58%
4.1
Striking Style Score (/10)
10.0
4 KOs
KO Finishes
2 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
0
Head
26
1
Body
6
0
Leg
2
RangeRange
0Distance2
1Clinch27
0Ground5
Herman
Rodriguez
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
0.2
Sub Attempts / fight
—
3.8
Grappling Style Score (/10)
0.0
2.7
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
0.0
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Herman
Rodriguez
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
0
50
KO risk
Verdict
KO risk
4
KO/TKO Losses
1
2
Sub Losses
2
Avg R2.0 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R1.0 stoppage
Most recent fight
Last KO loss
4 fights ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
26/43 fights
Chin rating based on
8/18 fights
Herman
Rodriguez
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
82
26
2-fight 📉 slide
Current form
3-fight 📉 slide
L · KO · R3
L · Dec · R3
W · Sub · R3
W · Dec · R3
W · KO · R1
Last 5
L · Dec · R3
L · Sub · R2
L · Sub · R3
W · KO · R1
L · KO · R1
Herman
Rodriguez
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
69%
100%
4
KO / TKO Wins
2
5
Submission Wins
0
4
Decision Wins
0

Style Fingerprint

Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10

Herman
Rodriguez
Striking4.1 / 10.0Volume3.5 / 0.6Grappling3.8 / 0.0Wrestling2.7 / 0.0Submission3.9 / 0.0Pressure6.4 / 7.9
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
4.1
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
10.0
3.8
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
0.0
2.7
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
0.0
3.9
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
6.4
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
7.9
3.5
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
0.6
Herman
Strike Zones
Rodriguez
Herman
Attacking
0HEAD1BODY0LEGS1 landed
Absorbing
26HEAD6BODY2LEGS34 absorbed
Rodriguez
Attacking
26HEAD6BODY2LEGS34 landed
Absorbing
0HEAD1BODY0LEGS1 absorbed
Targeting Overlap
🎯Herman targets the body (100% of attacks) — Rodriguez absorbs 100% of strikes there
🎯Rodriguez targets the head (76% of attacks) — Herman absorbs 76% of strikes there

Round by Round

This fight · per-round breakdown

Herman
RND
Rodriguez
0/0R00/0
0/0R20/0

Herman · QOF Timeline

Avg: 4.6
0105.5L1.5L5.0W5.2W5.5W2.8L5.5L4.5W2.8L5.0W5.0W5.2W4.5W5.5L4.5W1.8L5.2W4.0L5.5L5.5L5.0W4.5W5.5W6.4L4.4L2006-062009-042014-052019-112023-04
WinLossTrend

Rodriguez · QOF Timeline

Avg: 4.4
0105.5L5.0W2.1L5.4W4.2L2.8L5.5L2018-042019-122020-092021-09
WinLossTrend

Herman · Last 5

L · KO · R3
Zak CummingsRating 4.4
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Holloway vs. Allen · 2023-04
L · Dec · R3
Alonzo MenifieldRating 6.4
Decision
UFC 265: Lewis vs. Gane · 2021-08
W · Sub · R3
Mike RodriguezRating 5.5
Submission
UFC Fight Night: Waterson vs. Hill · 2020-09
W · Dec · R3
Khadis IbragimovRating 4.5
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Zabit vs. Kattar · 2019-11
W · KO · R1
Patrick CumminsRating 5
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Dos Anjos vs. Lee · 2019-05

Rodriguez · Last 5

L · Dec · R3
Tafon NchukwiRating 5.5
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Smith vs. Spann · 2021-09
L · Sub · R2
Danilo MarquesRating 2.8
Submission
UFC Fight Night: Overeem vs. Volkov · 2021-02
L · Sub · R3
Ed HermanRating 4.2
Submission
UFC Fight Night: Waterson vs. Hill · 2020-09
W · KO · R1
Marcin PrachnioRating 5.4
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Munhoz vs. Edgar · 2020-08
L · KO · R1
Da Woon JungRating 2.1
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Edgar vs. The Korean Zombie · 2019-12

News & Media

Ed Herman · Mike Rodriguez
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