METRICS GUIDE
Every stat on this page, explained
All stats are calculated from official fight data. Style scores are Combatrics proprietary ratings updated after every event.
UFC Fight Night: Waterson vs. Hill
Las Vegas, USA
12 Sept 2020
Light Heavyweight
VS
59%
Herman
41%
Rodriguez
Win Probability
Submission
Round 3 · 2:41
★ Official Result
Ed HermanwinsSubmissionR3 · 2:41
def. Mike Rodriguez · UFC Fight Night: Waterson vs. Hill
Fight Report
Pre-fight analysis · prediction vs result
Prediction vs Result
We predicted
Herman
→
Actual result
Herman wins
Submission · R3
Pre-fight analysis
This is a genuine toss-up — Herman at 59% vs Rodriguez at 41% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 12 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Rodriguez has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 16 points.
Risk flags
Herman's chin rating of 0 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
Rodriguez has a chin rating of 50 — a potential KO vulnerability.
This Fight — Statistics
Actual stats from this bout
HermanRodriguez
0
Sig. Strikes
0
0.0
Strikes / min (SLpM)
0.0
—
Strike Accuracy
—
Herman
Rodriguez
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
6'1"
Height
+6'4"
77"
Reach
+82"
45
Age
+37
Orthodox
Stance
Southpaw
Herman
Rodriguez
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
38.7
26.6
47.4
Performance Avg
47.4
44
Quality of Victory
60
82
Momentum Score
26
Herman
Rodriguez
Striking
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
4.1
/ 10
10.0
/ 10
6.4
Style: Pressure
7.9
3.5
Style: Volume
0.6
4 KO wins
Finish Rate (strikes)
2 KO wins
Per-minute strike stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Strike targetStrike target
0
Head
26
1
Body
6
0
Leg
2
RangeRange
0Distance2
1Clinch27
0Ground5
Herman
Rodriguez
Grappling
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
3.8
/ 10
0.0
/ 10
2.7
Wrestling Style (/10)
0.0
3.9
Submission Style (/10)
0.0
5
Submission wins
0
Per-fight takedown stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Herman
Rodriguez
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
0
50
KO risk
Verdict
KO risk
4
KO/TKO Losses
1
2
Sub Losses
2
Avg R2.0 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R1.0 stoppage
Most recent fight
Last KO loss
4 fights ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
26/43 fights
Chin rating based on
8/18 fights
Herman
Rodriguez
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
82
26
2-fight 📉 slide
Current form
3-fight 📉 slide
L · KO · R3
L · Dec · R3
W · Sub · R3
W · Dec · R3
W · KO · R1
Last 5
L · Dec · R3
L · Sub · R2
L · Sub · R3
W · KO · R1
L · KO · R1
Herman
Rodriguez
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
69%
100%
4
KO / TKO Wins
2
5
Submission Wins
0
4
Decision Wins
0
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Herman
Rodriguez
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
4.1
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
10.0
3.8
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
0.0
2.7
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
0.0
3.9
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
6.4
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
7.9
3.5
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
0.6
HermanRodriguez
Strike Zones
Herman
Attacking
1 landedAbsorbing
34 absorbedRodriguez
Attacking
34 landedAbsorbing
1 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Herman targets the body (100% of attacks) — Rodriguez absorbs 100% of strikes there
🎯Rodriguez targets the head (76% of attacks) — Herman absorbs 76% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Herman
RND
Rodriguez
0/0R00/0
0/0R20/0
Herman · Last 5
L · KO · R3
Zak CummingsKO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Holloway vs. Allen · 2023-04
L · Dec · R3
Alonzo MenifieldDecision
UFC 265: Lewis vs. Gane · 2021-08
W · Sub · R3
Mike RodriguezSubmission
UFC Fight Night: Waterson vs. Hill · 2020-09
W · Dec · R3
Khadis IbragimovDecision
UFC Fight Night: Zabit vs. Kattar · 2019-11
W · KO · R1
Patrick CumminsKO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Dos Anjos vs. Lee · 2019-05
Rodriguez · Last 5
L · Dec · R3
Tafon NchukwiDecision
UFC Fight Night: Smith vs. Spann · 2021-09
L · Sub · R2
Danilo MarquesSubmission
UFC Fight Night: Overeem vs. Volkov · 2021-02
L · Sub · R3
Ed HermanSubmission
UFC Fight Night: Waterson vs. Hill · 2020-09
W · KO · R1
Marcin PrachnioKO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Munhoz vs. Edgar · 2020-08
L · KO · R1
Da Woon JungKO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Edgar vs. The Korean Zombie · 2019-12