UFC Fight Night: Swanson vs. Lobov
Nashville, USA
22 Apr 2017
Welterweight
VS
49%
Ellenberger
51%
Perry
Win Probability
KO/TKO
Round 2 · 1:05
JE
Jake Ellenberger
"The Juggernaut"
31 – 15
5'9"71" reachOrthodox41 yrs4-fight slideWell-Rounded
CFR 16
MP
Mike Perry
"Platinum"
14 – 8
Striker2-fight slide34 yrsOrthodox71" reach5'10"
CFR 16

Combatrics Intelligence

Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics

Edge: Perry

This is a genuine toss-up — Ellenberger at 49% vs Perry at 51% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.

Key angles

Perry has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.

Risk flags

Ellenberger's chin rating of 0 flags durability concerns based on KO history.

Perry has a chin rating of 54 — a potential KO vulnerability.

Ellenberger
Perry
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'9"
Height
+5'10"
71"
Reach
71"
41
Age
+34
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Ellenberger
Perry
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
15.7
16.4
45.7
Performance Avg
44.4
45
Quality of Victory
43
56
Momentum Score
50
Ellenberger
Perry
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.2
1.7
42%
Strike Accuracy
51%
6.0
Striking Style Score (/10)
6.7
5 KOs
KO Finishes
4 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
3
Head
2
2
Body
0
0
Leg
2
RangeRange
3Distance3
2Clinch1
0Ground0
Ellenberger
Perry
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
0.2
Sub Attempts / fight
—
1.5
Grappling Style Score (/10)
1.0
1.1
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
0.7
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Ellenberger
Perry
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
0
54
4 consec. KOs
Verdict
KO risk
7
KO/TKO Losses
1
1
Sub Losses
1
Avg R1.6 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R1.0 stoppage
Most recent fight
Last KO loss
3 fights ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
21/46 fights
Chin rating based on
15/22 fights
Ellenberger
Perry
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
56
50
4-fight 📉 slide
Current form
2-fight 📉 slide
L · KO · R1
L · KO · R1
L · KO · R2
L · KO · R1
W · KO · R1
Last 5
L · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
L · KO · R1
L · Dec · R3
Ellenberger
Perry
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
60%
57%
5
KO / TKO Wins
4
1
Submission Wins
0
4
Decision Wins
3

Style Fingerprint

Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10

Ellenberger
Perry
Striking6.0 / 6.7Volume3.4 / 4.4Grappling1.5 / 1.0Wrestling1.1 / 0.7Submission1.0 / 0.0Pressure5.6 / 5.4
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
6.0
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
6.7
1.5
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
1.0
1.1
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
0.7
1.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
5.6
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
5.4
3.4
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
4.4
Ellenberger
Strike Zones
Perry
Ellenberger
Attacking
3HEAD2BODY0LEGS5 landed
Absorbing
2HEAD0BODY2LEGS4 absorbed
Perry
Attacking
2HEAD0BODY2LEGS4 landed
Absorbing
3HEAD2BODY0LEGS5 absorbed
Targeting Overlap
🎯Ellenberger targets the head (60% of attacks) — Perry absorbs 60% of strikes there
🎯Perry targets the head (50% of attacks) — Ellenberger absorbs 50% of strikes there

Round by Round

This fight · per-round breakdown

Ellenberger
RND
Perry
0/0R00/0
0/0R20/0

Ellenberger · QOF Timeline

Avg: 4.0
0105.5L5.2W4.5W4.5W5.0W5.0W4.5W2.1L4.5W5.0W5.5L4.3L1.8L5.2W2.1L5.5L5.4W1.5L2.8L1.5L1.9L2009-092012-022014-112017-042018-08
WinLossTrend

Perry · QOF Timeline

Avg: 5.0
0105.0W5.5W5.5L5.2W5.0W6.0L6.1L4.5W1.5L4.5W7.0L2.5L5.0W5.6L6.4L2016-082017-092018-112020-062021-04
WinLossTrend

Ellenberger · Last 5

L · KO · R1
Bryan BarberenaRating 1.9
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Gaethje vs. Vick · 2018-08
L · KO · R1
Ben SaundersRating 1.5
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Rivera vs. Moraes · 2018-06
L · KO · R2
Mike PerryRating 2.8
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Swanson vs. Lobov · 2017-04
L · KO · R1
Jorge MasvidalRating 1.5
KO/TKO
The Ultimate Fighter: Tournament of Champions Finale · 2016-12
W · KO · R1
Matt BrownRating 5.4
KO/TKO
UFC 201: Lawler vs. Woodley · 2016-07

Perry · Last 5

L · Dec · R3
Daniel RodriguezRating 6.4
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Vettori vs. Holland · 2021-04
L · Dec · R3
Tim MeansRating 5.6
Decision
UFC 255: Figueiredo vs. Perez · 2020-11
W · Dec · R3
Mickey GallRating 5
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Poirier vs. Hooker · 2020-06
L · KO · R1
Geoff NealRating 2.5
KO/TKO
UFC 245: Usman vs. Covington · 2019-12
L · Dec · R3
Vicente LuqueRating 7
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Shevchenko vs. Carmouche 2 · 2019-08

News & Media

Jake Ellenberger · Mike Perry
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