UFC 260: Miocic vs. Ngannou
Las Vegas, USA
27 Mar 2021
Lightweight
VS
57%
Mullarkey
43%
Worthy
Win Probability
KO/TKO
Round 1 · 0:46
Combatrics Intelligence
Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics
Edge: Mullarkey
This is a genuine toss-up — Mullarkey at 57% vs Worthy at 43% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 9 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Worthy has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 17 points.
Worthy has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.
Risk flags
Mullarkey's chin rating of 0 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
Worthy has a chin rating of 34 — a potential KO vulnerability.
Mullarkey
Worthy
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
6'0"+
Height
5'11"
74"
Reach
74"
31+
Age
39
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Mullarkey
Worthy
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
38.1
29.0
40.0
Performance Avg
47.5
36
Quality of Victory
53
51
Momentum Score
59
Mullarkey
Worthy
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.6
2.5
45%
Strike Accuracy
45%
4.3
Striking Style Score (/10)
5.8
2 KOs
KO Finishes
1 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
5
Head
3
0
Body
0
1
Leg
2
RangeRange
3Distance5
0Clinch0
3Ground0
Mullarkey
Worthy
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
1.6
/ 10
4.0
/ 10
1.1
Wrestling Style (/10)
2.8
0.0
Submission Style (/10)
5.0
0
Submission wins
1
Per-fight takedown stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Mullarkey
Worthy
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
0
34
2 consec. KOs
Verdict
3 consec. KOs
4
KO/TKO Losses
3
1
Sub Losses
0
Avg R1.5 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R1.0 stoppage
2 fights ago
Last KO loss
Most recent fight
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
13/27 fights
Chin rating based on
5/25 fights
Mullarkey
Worthy
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
51
59
Current form
3-fight 📉 slide
L · Sub · R1
W · Dec · R3
L · KO · R1
L · KO · R1
W · Dec · R3
Last 5
L · KO · R1
L · KO · R1
L · KO · R1
W · Sub · R3
W · KO · R1
Mullarkey
Worthy
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
33%
100%
2
KO / TKO Wins
1
0
Submission Wins
1
4
Decision Wins
0
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Mullarkey
Worthy
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
4.3
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
5.8
1.6
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
4.0
1.1
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
2.8
0.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
5.0
3.7
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
8.2
6.3
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
0.8
MullarkeyWorthy
Strike Zones
Mullarkey
Attacking
6 landedAbsorbing
5 absorbedWorthy
Attacking
5 landedAbsorbing
6 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Mullarkey targets the head (83% of attacks) — Worthy absorbs 83% of strikes there
🎯Worthy targets the head (60% of attacks) — Mullarkey absorbs 60% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Mullarkey
RND
Worthy
0/0R00/0
0/0R10/0
Mullarkey · QOF Timeline
Avg: 4.5WinLossTrend
Worthy · QOF Timeline
Avg: 3.3WinLossTrend
Mullarkey · Last 5
L · Sub · R1
Quillan SalkilldRating 3.6Submission
UFC 325: Volkanovski vs. Lopes 2 · 2026-01
W · Dec · R3
Rolando BedoyaRating 4.5Decision
UFC Fight Night: Ulberg vs. Reyes · 2025-09
L · KO · R1
Mauricio RuffyRating 3.2KO/TKO
UFC 301: Pantoja vs. Erceg · 2024-05
L · KO · R1
Nasrat HaqparastRating 2.1KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Song vs. Gutierrez · 2023-12
W · Dec · R3
John MakdessiRating 4.5Decision
UFC 293: Adesanya vs. Strickland · 2023-09
Worthy · Last 5
L · KO · R1
Jai HerbertRating 2.2KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Costa vs. Vettori · 2021-10
L · KO · R1
Jamie MullarkeyRating 1.7KO/TKO
UFC 260: Miocic vs. Ngannou · 2021-03
L · KO · R1
Ottman AzaitarRating 2.3KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Waterson vs. Hill · 2020-09
W · Sub · R3
Luis PenaRating 5.5Submission
UFC Fight Night: Poirier vs. Hooker · 2020-06
W · KO · R1
Devonte SmithRating 5KO/TKO
UFC 241: Cormier vs. Miocic 2 · 2019-08