UFC Fight Night: Cannonier vs. Imavov
Louisville, USA
8 Jun 2024
Welterweight
VS
46%
Baeza
54%
Soriano
Win Probability
Decision
Round 3 · 5:00
Combatrics Intelligence
Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics
Edge: Soriano
This is a genuine toss-up — Baeza at 46% vs Soriano at 54% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 9 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Soriano has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.
Risk flags
Baeza's chin rating of 52 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
Soriano has a chin rating of 62 — a potential KO vulnerability.
Baeza
Soriano
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
6'2"+
Height
5'11"
74"+
Reach
72"
33
Age
33
Orthodox
Stance
Southpaw
Baeza
Soriano
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
46.1
54.8
49.0
Performance Avg
52.0
53
Quality of Victory
44
39
Momentum Score
64
Baeza
Soriano
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.7
2.0
45%
Strike Accuracy
55%
7.5
Striking Style Score (/10)
7.0
2 KOs
KO Finishes
4 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
0
Head
46
0
Body
7
1
Leg
0
RangeRange
1Distance1
0Clinch0
0Ground52
Baeza
Soriano
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
2.7
/ 10
1.0
/ 10
1.9
Wrestling Style (/10)
0.7
3.3
Submission Style (/10)
0.0
1
Submission wins
0
Per-fight takedown stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Baeza
Soriano
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
52
62
2 consec. KOs
Verdict
Moderate
2
KO/TKO Losses
1
0
Sub Losses
1
Avg R2.0 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R2.0 stoppage
1 fight ago
Last KO loss
5 fights ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
7/14 fights
Chin rating based on
11/17 fights
Baeza
Soriano
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
39
64
4-fight 📉 slide
Current form
4-fight 🔥 win streak
L · Dec · R3
L · KO · R1
L · KO · R3
L · Dec · R3
W · Sub · R2
Last 5
W · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
W · KO · R1
W · Dec · R3
L · Sub · R2
Baeza
Soriano
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
100%
57%
2
KO / TKO Wins
4
1
Submission Wins
0
0
Decision Wins
3
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Baeza
Soriano
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
7.5
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
7.0
2.7
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
1.0
1.9
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
0.7
3.3
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
8.3
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
5.9
0.9
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
4.7
BaezaSoriano
Strike Zones
Baeza
Attacking
1 landedAbsorbing
53 absorbedSoriano
Attacking
53 landedAbsorbing
1 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Baeza targets the legs (100% of attacks) — Soriano absorbs 100% of strikes there
🎯Soriano targets the head (87% of attacks) — Baeza absorbs 87% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Baeza
RND
Soriano
0/0R00/0
Baeza · QOF Timeline
Avg: 5.1WinLossTrend
Soriano · QOF Timeline
Avg: 5.2WinLossTrend
Baeza · Last 5
L · Dec · R3
Punahele SorianoRating 6.5Decision
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Soriano · Last 5
W · Dec · R3
Ramiz BrahimajRating 6Decision
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L · Sub · R2
Dustin StoltzfusRating 2.8Submission
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