UFC 93: Franklin vs Henderson
Dublin, Ireland
17 Jan 2009
Light Heavyweight
VS
60%
Rua
40%
Coleman
Win Probability
KO/TKO
Round 3 · 4:36
Combatrics Intelligence
Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics
Edge: Rua
Rua holds a meaningful edge at 60% per the CFR ratings — but Coleman has real paths to victory.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 12 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Coleman has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 11 points.
Coleman has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.
Risk flags
Rua's chin rating of 0 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
Coleman has a chin rating of 40 — a potential KO vulnerability.
Rua
Coleman
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
6'1"
Height
6'1"
76"+
Reach
75"
44+
Age
61
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Rua
Coleman
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
35.0
22.9
49.7
Performance Avg
60.5
51
Quality of Victory
62
46
Momentum Score
84
Rua
Coleman
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.1
1.5
55%
Strike Accuracy
61%
8.2
Striking Style Score (/10)
5.5
8 KOs
KO Finishes
3 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
10
Head
9
4
Body
4
0
Leg
0
RangeRange
10Distance3
3Clinch1
1Ground9
Rua
Coleman
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
0.7
/ 10
3.8
/ 10
0.5
Wrestling Style (/10)
2.6
0.0
Submission Style (/10)
4.3
0
Submission wins
3
Per-fight takedown stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Rua
Coleman
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
0
40
2 consec. KOs
Verdict
KO risk
6
KO/TKO Losses
2
2
Sub Losses
1
Avg R1.8 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R2.5 stoppage
Most recent fight
Last KO loss
2 fights ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
24/41 fights
Chin rating based on
12/26 fights
Rua
Coleman
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
46
84
3-fight 📉 slide
Current form
L · KO · R1
L · Dec · R3
L · KO · R2
W · Dec · R3
Upcoming
Last 5
L · Sub · R2
W · Dec · R3
L · KO · R3
L · Dec · R2
L · KO · R2
Rua
Coleman
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
73%
86%
8
KO / TKO Wins
3
0
Submission Wins
3
3
Decision Wins
1
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Rua
Coleman
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
8.2
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
5.5
0.7
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
3.8
0.5
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
2.6
0.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
4.3
6.5
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
7.8
3.1
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
2.3
RuaColeman
Strike Zones
Rua
Attacking
14 landedAbsorbing
13 absorbedColeman
Attacking
13 landedAbsorbing
14 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Rua targets the head (71% of attacks) — Coleman absorbs 71% of strikes there
🎯Coleman targets the head (69% of attacks) — Rua absorbs 69% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Rua
RND
Coleman
0/0R00/0
0/0R10/0
Rua · QOF Timeline
Avg: 4.4WinLossTrend
Coleman · QOF Timeline
Avg: 4.5WinLossTrend
Rua · Last 5
L · KO · R1
Ihor PotieriaRating 1.5KO/TKO
UFC 283: Teixeira vs. Hill · 2023-01
L · Dec · R3
Ovince Saint PreuxRating 6.1Decision
UFC 274: Oliveira vs. Gaethje · 2022-05
L · KO · R2
Paul CraigRating 3.5KO/TKO
UFC 255: Figueiredo vs. Perez · 2020-11
W · Dec · R3
Rogerio NogueiraRating 4.5Decision
UFC Fight Night: Whittaker vs. Till · 2020-07
Upcoming
Paul CraigDecision
UFC Fight Night: Blachowicz vs. Jacare · 2019-11
Coleman · Last 5
L · Sub · R2
Randy CoutureRating 2.8Submission
UFC 109: Relentless · 2010-02
W · Dec · R3
Stephan BonnarRating 4.5Decision
UFC 100 · 2009-07
L · KO · R3
Mauricio RuaRating 4KO/TKO
UFC 93: Franklin vs Henderson · 2009-01
L · Dec · R2
Pedro RizzoRating 4.8Decision
UFC 18: The Road to the Heavyweight Title · 1999-01
L · KO · R2
Pete WilliamsRating 2.8KO/TKO
UFC 17: Redemption · 1998-05