UFC 274: Oliveira vs. Gaethje
Phoenix, USA
7 May 2022
Welterweight
VS
93%
Fialho
7%
VanCamp
Win Probability
KO/TKO
Round 1 · 2:35
Combatrics Intelligence
Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics
Edge: Fialho
Fialho is a strong favourite at 93% win probability per the CFR ratings. The data points decisively in one direction.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 30 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Fialho has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 60 points.
VanCamp has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.
Risk flags
Fialho's chin rating of 10 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
VanCamp has a chin rating of 56 — a potential KO vulnerability.
Fialho
VanCamp
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
6'0"
Height
+6'2"
74"
Reach
74"
32+
Age
33
Orthodox
Stance
Switch
Fialho
VanCamp
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
32.8
2.5
47.4
Performance Avg
0.0
60
Quality of Victory
0
20
Momentum Score
0
Fialho
VanCamp
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.5
6.8
44%
Strike Accuracy
48%
10.0
Striking Style Score (/10)
0.0
2 KOs
KO Finishes
0 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
12
Head
9
2
Body
4
3
Leg
6
RangeRange
16Distance19
0Clinch0
1Ground0
Fialho
VanCamp
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
🥊
Pure striking matchup
Neither fighter has significant grappling in their history
0
Submission wins
0
Fialho
VanCamp
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
10
56
4 consec. KOs
Verdict
2 consec. KOs
4
KO/TKO Losses
2
0
Sub Losses
0
Avg R2.5 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R1.0 stoppage
Most recent fight
Last KO loss
Most recent fight
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
7/24 fights
Chin rating based on
2/22 fights
Fialho
VanCamp
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
20
0
4-fight 📉 slide
Current form
2-fight 📉 slide
L · KO · R3
L · KO · R2
L · KO · R3
L · KO · R2
W · KO · R1
Last 5
L · KO · R1
L · KO · R1
Fialho
VanCamp
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
100%
0%
2
KO / TKO Wins
0
0
Submission Wins
0
0
Decision Wins
0
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Fialho
VanCamp
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
10.0
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
0.0
0.0
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
0.0
0.0
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
0.0
0.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
7.9
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
0.0
0.6
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
0.0
FialhoVanCamp
Strike Zones
Fialho
Attacking
17 landedAbsorbing
19 absorbedVanCamp
Attacking
19 landedAbsorbing
17 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Fialho targets the head (71% of attacks) — VanCamp absorbs 71% of strikes there
🎯VanCamp targets the head (47% of attacks) — Fialho absorbs 47% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Fialho
RND
VanCamp
0/0R00/0
0/0R10/0
Fialho · QOF Timeline
Avg: 4.8WinLossTrend
VanCamp · QOF Timeline
Avg: 1.8WinLossTrend
Fialho · Last 5
L · KO · R3
Tim MeansRating 4.1KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Fiziev vs. Gamrot · 2023-09
L · KO · R2
Joaquin BuckleyRating 3.9KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Dern vs. Hill · 2023-05
L · KO · R3
Muslim SalikhovRating 5KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Nzechukwu vs. Cutelaba · 2022-11
L · KO · R2
Jake MatthewsRating 3.8KO/TKO
UFC 275: Teixeira vs. Prochazka · 2022-06
W · KO · R1
Cameron VanCampRating 5KO/TKO
UFC 274: Oliveira vs. Gaethje · 2022-05
VanCamp · Last 2
L · KO · R1
Nikolas MottaRating 2.1KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Sandhagen vs. Song · 2022-09
L · KO · R1
Andre FialhoRating 1.5KO/TKO
UFC 274: Oliveira vs. Gaethje · 2022-05