Sean Brady vs Kelvin Gastelum — UFC Fight Analysis & Result

METRICS GUIDE

Every stat on this page, explained

All stats are calculated from official fight data. Style scores are Combatrics proprietary ratings updated after every event.

UFC Fight Night: Dariush vs. Tsarukyan

Austin, USA

2 Dec 2023

Welterweight

58%

Brady

42%

Gastelum

Win Probability

Submission

Round 3 · 1:43

Sean Brady

19 – 2

5'10"72" reachOrthodox33 yrsWell-Rounded

CFR 57

Kelvin Gastelum

21 – 11

Well-Rounded34 yrsSouthpaw71" reach5'9"

CFR 41

★ Official Result

Sean BradywinsSubmissionR3 · 1:43

def. Kelvin Gastelum · UFC Fight Night: Dariush vs. Tsarukyan

Fight Report

Pre-fight analysis · prediction vs result

Prediction vs Result

We predicted

Brady

→

Actual result

Brady wins

Submission · R3

Pre-fight analysis

This is a genuine toss-up — Brady at 58% vs Gastelum at 42% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.

Key angles

The CFR gap of 16 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.

Risk flags

Brady's chin rating of 56 flags durability concerns based on KO history.

Gastelum has a chin rating of 38 — a potential KO vulnerability.

This Fight — Statistics

Actual stats from this bout

BradyGastelum

Sig. Strikes

0.0

Strikes / min (SLpM)

0.0

—

Strike Accuracy

—

Brady

Gastelum

Physical Matchup

Height · Reach · Age · Stance

5'10"+

Height

5'9"

72"+

Reach

71"

33+

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Southpaw

Brady

Gastelum

Composite Fighter Rating

Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability

57.4

41.4

53.7

Performance Avg

47.4

Quality of Victory

Momentum Score

Brady

Gastelum

Striking

Career averages · see This Fight stats above

1.6

/ 10

3.3

/ 10

5.6

Style: Pressure

4.2

6.1

Style: Volume

6.3

0 KO wins

Finish Rate (strikes)

3 KO wins

Per-minute strike stats will populate after live card results are scraped

Strike targetStrike target

Head

Body

Leg

RangeRange

1Distance3

0Clinch0

0Ground0

Brady

Gastelum

Grappling

Career averages · see This Fight stats above

4.9

/ 10

2.7

/ 10

3.4

Wrestling Style (/10)

1.9

4.4

Submission Style (/10)

1.4

Submission wins

Per-fight takedown stats will populate after live card results are scraped

Brady

Gastelum

Durability / Chin

Resilience against knockouts and stoppages

KO risk

Verdict

Never stopped

KO/TKO Losses

Sub Losses

Avg R1.5 stoppage

KO round context

—

2 fights ago

Last KO loss

—

Strikes absorbed / min

—

12/21 fights

Chin rating based on

26/32 fights

Brady

Gastelum

Form & Momentum

Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%

Upcoming

W · Dec · R3

L · KO · R1

W · Sub · R4

W · Dec · R5

Last 5

L · Sub · R1

W · Dec · R3

L · Dec · R3

W · Dec · R3

L · Sub · R3

Brady

Gastelum

Finish Rate

Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission

44%

36%

KO / TKO Wins

Submission Wins

Decision Wins

Style Fingerprint

Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10

Brady

Gastelum

Fighter 1

Fighter 2

1.6

Striking

KO power & stand-up volume

3.3

4.9

Grappling

Ground control & clinch

2.7

3.4

Wrestling

Takedown threat & defence

1.9

4.4

Submission

Submission attack frequency

1.4

5.6

Pressure

Clinch/ground work rate

4.2

6.1

Volume

Decision-pace fighting

6.3

Brady

Strike Zones

Gastelum

Brady

Attacking

1 landed

Absorbing

3 absorbed

Gastelum

Attacking

3 landed

Absorbing

1 absorbed

Targeting Overlap

🎯Brady targets the legs (100% of attacks) — Gastelum absorbs 100% of strikes there

🎯Gastelum targets the body (67% of attacks) — Brady absorbs 67% of strikes there

Round by Round

This fight · per-round breakdown

Brady

RND

Gastelum

0/0R00/0

Brady · Last 5

Upcoming

Gabriel Bonfim

UFC Fight Night: Bonfim vs. Brady · 2026-11

W · Dec · R3

Joaquin Buckley

Decision

UFC 328: Chimaev vs. Strickland · 2026-05

L · KO · R1

Michael Morales

KO/TKO

UFC 322: Della Maddalena vs. Makhachev · 2025-11

W · Sub · R4

Leon Edwards

Submission

UFC Fight Night: Edwards vs. Brady · 2025-03

W · Dec · R5

Gilbert Burns

Decision

UFC Fight Night: Burns vs. Brady · 2024-09

Gastelum · Last 5

L · Sub · R1

Vicente Luque

Submission

UFC 327: Prochazka vs. Ulberg · 2026-04

W · Dec · R3

Dustin Stoltzfus

Decision

Noche UFC: Lopes vs. Silva · 2025-09

L · Dec · R3

Joe Pyfer

Decision

UFC 316: Dvalishvili vs. O'Malley 2 · 2025-06

W · Dec · R3

Daniel Rodriguez

Decision

UFC Fight Night: Whittaker vs. Aliskerov · 2024-06

L · Sub · R3

Sean Brady

Submission

UFC Fight Night: Dariush vs. Tsarukyan · 2023-12

News & Media

Sean Brady · Kelvin Gastelum

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