UFC Fight Night: Dariush vs. Tsarukyan
Austin, USA
2 Dec 2023
Welterweight
VS
58%
Brady
42%
Gastelum
Win Probability
Submission
Round 3 · 1:43
Combatrics Intelligence
Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics
Edge: Brady
This is a genuine toss-up — Brady at 58% vs Gastelum at 42% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 16 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Striking split: Gastelum throws more volume but Brady connects at a higher rate — quality vs quantity.
Risk flags
Brady's chin rating of 56 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
Gastelum has a chin rating of 38 — a potential KO vulnerability.
Brady
Gastelum
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'10"+
Height
5'9"
72"+
Reach
71"
33+
Age
34
Orthodox
Stance
Southpaw
Brady
Gastelum
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
57.4
41.4
53.7
Performance Avg
47.4
35
Quality of Victory
42
84
Momentum Score
28
Brady
Gastelum
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.3
1.3
54%
Strike Accuracy
43%
1.6
Striking Style Score (/10)
3.3
0 KOs
KO Finishes
3 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
0
Head
1
0
Body
2
1
Leg
0
RangeRange
1Distance3
0Clinch0
0Ground0
Brady
Gastelum
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
—
Sub Attempts / fight
0.3
4.9
Grappling Style Score (/10)
2.7
3.4
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
1.9
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Brady
Gastelum
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
56
38
KO risk
Verdict
Never stopped
2
KO/TKO Losses
0
0
Sub Losses
4
Avg R1.5 stoppage
KO round context
—
1 fight ago
Last KO loss
—
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
11/21 fights
Chin rating based on
26/32 fights
Brady
Gastelum
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
84
28
W · Dec · R3
L · KO · R1
W · Sub · R4
W · Dec · R5
W · Sub · R3
Last 5
L · Sub · R1
W · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
L · Sub · R3
Brady
Gastelum
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
44%
36%
0
KO / TKO Wins
3
4
Submission Wins
2
5
Decision Wins
9
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Brady
Gastelum
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
1.6
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
3.3
4.9
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
2.7
3.4
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
1.9
4.4
Submission
Submission attack frequency
1.4
5.6
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
4.2
6.1
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
6.3
BradyGastelum
Strike Zones
Brady
Attacking
1 landedAbsorbing
3 absorbedGastelum
Attacking
3 landedAbsorbing
1 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Brady targets the legs (100% of attacks) — Gastelum absorbs 100% of strikes there
🎯Gastelum targets the body (67% of attacks) — Brady absorbs 67% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Brady
RND
Gastelum
0/0R00/0
Brady · QOF Timeline
Avg: 5.2WinLossTrend
Gastelum · QOF Timeline
Avg: 5.1WinLossTrend
Brady · Last 5
W · Dec · R3
Joaquin BuckleyRating 5.7Decision
UFC 328: Chimaev vs. Strickland · 2026-05
L · KO · R1
Michael MoralesRating 3.6KO/TKO
UFC 322: Della Maddalena vs. Makhachev · 2025-11
W · Sub · R4
Leon EdwardsRating 6.5Submission
UFC Fight Night: Edwards vs. Brady · 2025-03
W · Dec · R5
Gilbert BurnsRating 4.7Decision
UFC Fight Night: Burns vs. Brady · 2024-09
W · Sub · R3
Kelvin GastelumRating 5.8Submission
UFC Fight Night: Dariush vs. Tsarukyan · 2023-12
Gastelum · Last 5
L · Sub · R1
Vicente LuqueRating 3Submission
UFC 327: Prochazka vs. Ulberg · 2026-04
W · Dec · R3
Dustin StoltzfusRating 4.5Decision
UFC Fight Night: Lopes vs. Silva · 2025-09
L · Dec · R3
Joe PyferRating 7.5Decision
UFC 316: Dvalishvili vs. O'Malley 2 · 2025-06
W · Dec · R3
Daniel RodriguezRating 5.4Decision
UFC Fight Night: Whittaker vs. Aliskerov · 2024-06
L · Sub · R3
Sean BradyRating 5.1Submission
UFC Fight Night: Dariush vs. Tsarukyan · 2023-12