UFC 260: Miocic vs. Ngannou
Las Vegas, USA
27 Mar 2021
Welterweight
VS
23%
Woodley
77%
Luque
Win Probability
Submission
Round 1 · 3:56
Combatrics Intelligence
Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics
Edge: Luque
Luque is a strong favourite at 77% win probability per the CFR ratings. The data points decisively in one direction.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 46 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Luque has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.
Risk flags
Woodley's chin rating of 58 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
Luque has a chin rating of 34 — a potential KO vulnerability.
Woodley
Luque
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'9"
Height
+5'11"
74"
Reach
+75"
44
Age
+34
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Woodley
Luque
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
19.4
64.9
58.9
Performance Avg
57.2
58
Quality of Victory
50
40
Momentum Score
100
Woodley
Luque
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
0.9
2.0
49%
Strike Accuracy
53%
6.8
Striking Style Score (/10)
5.5
5 KOs
KO Finishes
7 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
7
Head
15
10
Body
10
1
Leg
0
RangeRange
8Distance16
10Clinch9
0Ground0
Woodley
Luque
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
1.7
/ 10
3.6
/ 10
1.2
Wrestling Style (/10)
2.5
1.1
Submission Style (/10)
4.1
1
Submission wins
7
Per-fight takedown stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Woodley
Luque
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
58
34
KO risk
Verdict
KO risk
1
KO/TKO Losses
2
1
Sub Losses
1
Avg R5.0 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R2.5 stoppage
1 fight ago
Last KO loss
4 fights ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
16/26 fights
Chin rating based on
25/36 fights
Woodley
Luque
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
40
100
4-fight 📉 slide
Current form
L · Sub · R1
L · KO · R5
L · Dec · R5
L · Dec · R5
W · Sub · R2
Last 5
W · Sub · R1
L · Dec · R3
L · Sub · R2
W · Sub · R1
L · KO · R2
Woodley
Luque
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
67%
82%
5
KO / TKO Wins
7
1
Submission Wins
7
3
Decision Wins
3
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Woodley
Luque
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
6.8
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
5.5
1.7
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
3.6
1.2
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
2.5
1.1
Submission
Submission attack frequency
4.1
6.5
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
7.8
3.9
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
2.3
WoodleyLuque
Strike Zones
Woodley
Attacking
18 landedAbsorbing
25 absorbedLuque
Attacking
25 landedAbsorbing
18 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Woodley targets the body (56% of attacks) — Luque absorbs 56% of strikes there
🎯Luque targets the head (60% of attacks) — Woodley absorbs 60% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Woodley
RND
Luque
0/0R00/0
Woodley · QOF Timeline
Avg: 5.1WinLossTrend
Luque · QOF Timeline
Avg: 5.4WinLossTrend
Woodley · Last 5
L · Sub · R1
Vicente LuqueRating 3Submission
UFC 260: Miocic vs. Ngannou · 2021-03
L · KO · R5
Colby CovingtonRating 5.3KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Covington vs. Woodley · 2020-09
L · Dec · R5
Gilbert BurnsRating 5.7Decision
UFC Fight Night: Woodley vs. Burns · 2020-05
L · Dec · R5
Kamaru UsmanRating 6.6Decision
UFC 235: Jones vs. Smith · 2019-03
W · Sub · R2
Darren TillRating 5.1Submission
UFC 228: Woodley vs. Till · 2018-09
Luque · Last 5
W · Sub · R1
Kelvin GastelumRating 5.3Submission
UFC 327: Prochazka vs. Ulberg · 2026-04
L · Dec · R3
Joel AlvarezRating 6.8Decision
UFC Fight Night: Oliveira vs. Gamrot · 2025-10
L · Sub · R2
Kevin HollandRating 3.4Submission
UFC 316: Dvalishvili vs. O'Malley 2 · 2025-06
W · Sub · R1
Themba GorimboRating 5.4Submission
UFC 310: Pantoja vs. Asakura · 2024-12
L · KO · R2
Joaquin BuckleyRating 3.9KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Blanchfield vs. Fiorot · 2024-03