UFC 139: Shogun vs Henderson
San Jose, USA
19 Nov 2011
Lightweight
VS
61%
Castillo
39%
Bailey
Win Probability
KO/TKO
Round 1 · 4:52
DC
Danny Castillo
"Last Call"
17 – 10
5'9"71" reachOrthodox46 yrs4-fight slideWell-Rounded
CFR 17
SB
Shamar Bailey
16 – 11
Well-Rounded2-fight slide43 yrsSouthpaw75" reach5'9"
CFR 11

Combatrics Intelligence

Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics

Edge: Castillo

Castillo holds a meaningful edge at 61% per the CFR ratings — but Bailey has real paths to victory.

Key angles

Castillo has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.

Risk flags

Castillo's chin rating of 46 flags durability concerns based on KO history.

Castillo
Bailey
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'9"
Height
5'9"
71"
Reach
+75"
46
Age
+43
Orthodox
Stance
Southpaw
Castillo
Bailey
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
17.2
10.8
40.6
Performance Avg
28.3
34
Quality of Victory
25
89
Momentum Score
33
Castillo
Bailey
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
0.9
0.7
44%
Strike Accuracy
20%
3.9
Striking Style Score (/10)
0.7
2 KOs
KO Finishes
0 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
17
Head
3
4
Body
0
1
Leg
0
RangeRange
2Distance0
0Clinch1
20Ground2
Castillo
Bailey
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
0.1
Sub Attempts / fight
—
1.7
Grappling Style Score (/10)
2.4
1.2
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
1.7
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Castillo
Bailey
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
46
76
KO risk
Verdict
Moderate
2
KO/TKO Losses
1
0
Sub Losses
0
Avg R2.0 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R1.0 stoppage
2 fights ago
Last KO loss
Most recent fight
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
14/27 fights
Chin rating based on
3/27 fights
Castillo
Bailey
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
89
33
4-fight 📉 slide
Current form
2-fight 📉 slide
L · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
L · KO · R2
L · Dec · R3
W · KO · R2
Last 5
L · KO · R1
L · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
Castillo
Bailey
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
29%
0%
2
KO / TKO Wins
0
0
Submission Wins
0
5
Decision Wins
1

Style Fingerprint

Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10

Castillo
Bailey
Striking3.9 / 0.7Volume6.7 / 8.7Grappling1.7 / 2.4Wrestling1.2 / 1.7Submission0.0 / 0.0Pressure3.5 / 1.0
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
3.9
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
0.7
1.7
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
2.4
1.2
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
1.7
0.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
3.5
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
1.0
6.7
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
8.7
Castillo
Strike Zones
Bailey
Castillo
Attacking
17HEAD4BODY1LEGS22 landed
Absorbing
3HEAD0BODY0LEGS3 absorbed
Bailey
Attacking
3HEAD0BODY0LEGS3 landed
Absorbing
17HEAD4BODY1LEGS22 absorbed
Targeting Overlap
🎯Castillo targets the head (77% of attacks) — Bailey absorbs 77% of strikes there
🎯Bailey targets the head (100% of attacks) — Castillo absorbs 100% of strikes there

Round by Round

This fight · per-round breakdown

Castillo
RND
Bailey
0/0R00/0

Castillo · QOF Timeline

Avg: 4.8
0104.5W5.5L5.0W4.5W4.5W2.8L4.5W4.6W6.0L5.2W6.0L2.8L5.9L5.5L2011-032012-052013-122015-072015-12
WinLossTrend

Bailey · QOF Timeline

Avg: 3.8
0104.5W5.5L1.5L2011-062011-092011-11
WinLossTrend

Castillo · Last 5

L · Dec · R3
Nik LentzRating 5.5
Decision
UFC on FOX: Dos Anjos vs. Cowboy 2 · 2015-12
L · Dec · R3
Jim MillerRating 5.9
Decision
UFC on FOX: Dillashaw vs. Barao II · 2015-07
L · KO · R2
Paul FelderRating 2.8
KO/TKO
UFC 182: Jones vs Cormier · 2015-01
L · Dec · R3
Tony FergusonRating 6
Decision
UFC 177: Dillashaw vs Soto · 2014-08
W · KO · R2
Charlie BrennemanRating 5.2
KO/TKO
UFC 172: Jones vs Teixeira · 2014-04

Bailey · Last 3

L · KO · R1
Danny CastilloRating 1.5
KO/TKO
UFC 139: Shogun vs Henderson · 2011-11
L · Dec · R3
Evan DunhamRating 5.5
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Shields vs Ellenberger · 2011-09
W · Dec · R3
Ryan McGillivrayRating 4.5
Decision
The Ultimate Fighter: Team Lesnar vs Team dos Santos Finale · 2011-06

News & Media

Danny Castillo · Shamar Bailey
← Back to fights