METRICS GUIDE
Every stat on this page, explained
All stats are calculated from official fight data. Style scores are Combatrics proprietary ratings updated after every event.
UFC 139: Shogun vs Henderson
San Jose, USA
19 Nov 2011
Lightweight
VS
61%
Castillo
39%
Bailey
Win Probability
KO/TKO
Round 1 · 4:52
★ Official Result
Danny CastillowinsKO/TKOR1 · 4:52
def. Shamar Bailey · UFC 139: Shogun vs Henderson
Fight Report
Pre-fight analysis · prediction vs result
Prediction vs Result
We predicted
Castillo
→
Actual result
Castillo wins
KO/TKO · R1
Pre-fight analysis
Castillo holds a meaningful edge at 61% per the CFR ratings — but Bailey has real paths to victory.
Key angles
Castillo has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.
Risk flags
Castillo's chin rating of 46 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
This Fight — Statistics
Actual stats from this bout
CastilloBailey
0
Sig. Strikes
0
0.0
Strikes / min (SLpM)
0.0
—
Strike Accuracy
—
Castillo
Bailey
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'9"
Height
5'9"
71"
Reach
+75"
46
Age
+43
Orthodox
Stance
Southpaw
Castillo
Bailey
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
17.2
10.8
40.6
Performance Avg
28.3
34
Quality of Victory
25
89
Momentum Score
33
Castillo
Bailey
Striking
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
0.9
0.7
44%
Strike Accuracy
20%
3.9
Striking Style Score (/10)
0.7
2 KOs
KO Finishes
0 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
17
Head
3
4
Body
0
1
Leg
0
RangeRange
2Distance0
0Clinch1
20Ground2
Castillo
Bailey
Grappling
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
—
—
0.1
Sub Attempts / fight
—
1.7
Grappling Style Score (/10)
2.4
1.2
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
1.7
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Castillo
Bailey
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
46
76
KO risk
Verdict
Moderate
2
KO/TKO Losses
1
0
Sub Losses
0
Avg R2.0 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R1.0 stoppage
2 fights ago
Last KO loss
Most recent fight
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
14/27 fights
Chin rating based on
3/27 fights
Castillo
Bailey
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
89
33
4-fight 📉 slide
Current form
2-fight 📉 slide
L · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
L · KO · R2
L · Dec · R3
W · KO · R2
Last 5
L · KO · R1
L · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
Castillo
Bailey
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
29%
0%
2
KO / TKO Wins
0
0
Submission Wins
0
5
Decision Wins
1
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Castillo
Bailey
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
3.9
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
0.7
1.7
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
2.4
1.2
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
1.7
0.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
3.5
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
1.0
6.7
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
8.7
CastilloBailey
Strike Zones
Castillo
Attacking
22 landedAbsorbing
3 absorbedBailey
Attacking
3 landedAbsorbing
22 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Castillo targets the head (77% of attacks) — Bailey absorbs 77% of strikes there
🎯Bailey targets the head (100% of attacks) — Castillo absorbs 100% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Castillo
RND
Bailey
0/0R00/0
Castillo · QOF Timeline
Avg: 4.8WinLossTrend
Bailey · QOF Timeline
Avg: 3.8WinLossTrend
Castillo · Last 5
L · Dec · R3
Nik LentzRating 5.5Decision
UFC on FOX: Dos Anjos vs. Cowboy 2 · 2015-12
L · Dec · R3
Jim MillerRating 5.9Decision
UFC on FOX: Dillashaw vs. Barao II · 2015-07
L · KO · R2
Paul FelderRating 2.8KO/TKO
UFC 182: Jones vs Cormier · 2015-01
L · Dec · R3
Tony FergusonRating 6Decision
UFC 177: Dillashaw vs Soto · 2014-08
W · KO · R2
Charlie BrennemanRating 5.2KO/TKO
UFC 172: Jones vs Teixeira · 2014-04
Bailey · Last 3
L · KO · R1
Danny CastilloRating 1.5KO/TKO
UFC 139: Shogun vs Henderson · 2011-11
L · Dec · R3
Evan DunhamRating 5.5Decision
UFC Fight Night: Shields vs Ellenberger · 2011-09
W · Dec · R3
Ryan McGillivrayRating 4.5Decision
The Ultimate Fighter: Team Lesnar vs Team dos Santos Finale · 2011-06