METRICS GUIDE
Every stat on this page, explained
All stats are calculated from official fight data. Style scores are Combatrics proprietary ratings updated after every event.
UFC 139: Shogun vs Henderson
San Jose, USA
19 Nov 2011
Lightweight
VS
61%
Castillo
39%
Bailey
Win Probability
KO/TKO
Round 1 · 4:52
★ Official Result
Danny CastillowinsKO/TKOR1 · 4:52
def. Shamar Bailey · UFC 139: Shogun vs Henderson
Fight Report
Pre-fight analysis · prediction vs result
Prediction vs Result
We predicted
Castillo
→
Actual result
Castillo wins
KO/TKO · R1
Pre-fight analysis
Castillo holds a meaningful edge at 61% per the CFR ratings — but Bailey has real paths to victory.
Risk flags
Castillo's chin rating of 46 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
This Fight — Statistics
Actual stats from this bout
CastilloBailey
0
Sig. Strikes
0
0.0
Strikes / min (SLpM)
0.0
—
Strike Accuracy
—
Castillo
Bailey
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'9"
Height
5'9"
71"
Reach
+75"
47
Age
+43
Orthodox
Stance
Southpaw
Castillo
Bailey
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
17.2
10.8
40.6
Performance Avg
28.3
34
Quality of Victory
25
89
Momentum Score
33
Castillo
Bailey
Striking
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
3.9
/ 10
0.7
/ 10
3.5
Style: Pressure
1.0
6.7
Style: Volume
8.7
2 KO wins
Finish Rate (strikes)
0 KO wins
Per-minute strike stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Strike targetStrike target
17
Head
3
4
Body
0
1
Leg
0
RangeRange
2Distance0
0Clinch1
20Ground2
Castillo
Bailey
Grappling
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
1.7
/ 10
2.4
/ 10
1.2
Wrestling Style (/10)
1.7
0.0
Submission Style (/10)
0.0
0
Submission wins
0
Per-fight takedown stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Castillo
Bailey
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
46
76
KO risk
Verdict
Moderate
2
KO/TKO Losses
1
0
Sub Losses
0
Avg R2.0 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R1.0 stoppage
2 fights ago
Last KO loss
Most recent fight
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
14/27 fights
Chin rating based on
3/27 fights
Castillo
Bailey
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
89
33
4-fight 📉 slide
Current form
2-fight 📉 slide
L · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
L · KO · R2
L · Dec · R3
W · KO · R2
Last 5
L · KO · R1
L · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
Castillo
Bailey
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
29%
0%
2
KO / TKO Wins
0
0
Submission Wins
0
5
Decision Wins
1
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Castillo
Bailey
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
3.9
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
0.7
1.7
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
2.4
1.2
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
1.7
0.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
3.5
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
1.0
6.7
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
8.7
CastilloBailey
Strike Zones
Castillo
Attacking
22 landedAbsorbing
3 absorbedBailey
Attacking
3 landedAbsorbing
22 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Castillo targets the head (77% of attacks) — Bailey absorbs 77% of strikes there
🎯Bailey targets the head (100% of attacks) — Castillo absorbs 100% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Castillo
RND
Bailey
0/0R00/0
Castillo · Last 5
L · Dec · R3
Nik LentzDecision
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Jim MillerDecision
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L · KO · R2
Paul FelderKO/TKO
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L · Dec · R3
Tony FergusonDecision
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W · KO · R2
Charlie BrennemanKO/TKO
UFC 172: Jones vs Teixeira · 2014-04
Bailey · Last 3
L · KO · R1
Danny CastilloKO/TKO
UFC 139: Shogun vs Henderson · 2011-11
L · Dec · R3
Evan DunhamDecision
UFC Fight Night: Shields vs Ellenberger · 2011-09
W · Dec · R3
Ryan McGillivrayDecision
The Ultimate Fighter: Team Lesnar vs Team dos Santos Finale · 2011-06