UFC 102: Couture vs Nogueira
Portland, USA
29 Aug 2009
Light Heavyweight
VS
65%
Silva
35%
Jardine
Win Probability
KO/TKO
Round 1 · 1:35
TS
Thiago Silva
19 – 6
6'2"74" reachOrthodox43 yrs2-fight win streakKnockout Artist
CFR 25
KJ
Keith Jardine
"The Dean of Mean"
17 – 11
Well-Rounded4-fight slide50 yrsOrthodox76" reach6'2"
CFR 13

Combatrics Intelligence

Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics

Edge: Silva

Silva holds a meaningful edge at 65% per the CFR ratings — but Jardine has real paths to victory.

Key angles

The CFR gap of 11 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.

Silva has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 19 points.

Silva has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.

Risk flags

Jardine has a chin rating of 6 — a potential KO vulnerability.

Silva
Jardine
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
6'2"
Height
6'2"
74"
Reach
+76"
43+
Age
50
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Silva
Jardine
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
24.7
13.3
60.6
Performance Avg
40.0
54
Quality of Victory
36
100
Momentum Score
48
Silva
Jardine
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
2.5
1.8
54%
Strike Accuracy
41%
10.0
Striking Style Score (/10)
4.3
6 KOs
KO Finishes
2 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
4
Head
1
0
Body
1
1
Leg
1
RangeRange
2Distance3
0Clinch0
3Ground0
Silva
Jardine
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
0.3
/ 10
1.6
/ 10
0.2
Wrestling Style (/10)
1.1
0.0
Submission Style (/10)
0.0
0
Submission wins
0
Per-fight takedown stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Silva
Jardine
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
74
6
Moderate
Verdict
2 consec. KOs
1
KO/TKO Losses
4
0
Sub Losses
0
Avg R1.0 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R1.5 stoppage
7 fights ago
Last KO loss
1 fight ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
12/25 fights
Chin rating based on
13/28 fights
Silva
Jardine
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
100
48
2-fight 🔥 win streak
Current form
4-fight 📉 slide
W · Dec · R3
W · KO · R1
Upcoming
L · Dec · R3
Upcoming
Last 5
L · Dec · R3
L · KO · R3
L · KO · R1
L · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
Silva
Jardine
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
86%
33%
6
KO / TKO Wins
2
0
Submission Wins
0
1
Decision Wins
4

Style Fingerprint

Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10

Silva
Jardine
Striking10.0 / 4.3Volume2.5 / 6.3Grappling0.3 / 1.6Wrestling0.2 / 1.1Submission0.0 / 0.0Pressure8.1 / 3.7
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
10.0
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
4.3
0.3
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
1.6
0.2
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
1.1
0.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
8.1
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
3.7
2.5
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
6.3
Silva
Strike Zones
Jardine
Silva
Attacking
4HEAD0BODY1LEGS5 landed
Absorbing
1HEAD1BODY1LEGS3 absorbed
Jardine
Attacking
1HEAD1BODY1LEGS3 landed
Absorbing
4HEAD0BODY1LEGS5 absorbed
Targeting Overlap
🎯Silva targets the head (80% of attacks) — Jardine absorbs 80% of strikes there
🎯Jardine targets the head (33% of attacks) — Silva absorbs 33% of strikes there

Round by Round

This fight · per-round breakdown

Silva
RND
Jardine
0/0R00/0
0/0R10/0

Silva · QOF Timeline

Avg: 4.7
0105.0W5.2W5.0W5.0W1.5L5.0W5.5L5.5L5.0W4.5W2007-052008-052010-012013-10
WinLossTrend

Jardine · QOF Timeline

Avg: 4.1
0105.2W4.5W5.5L4.5W5.0W1.5L4.5W1.5L4.5W5.5L1.5L4.0L5.5L2005-112006-122008-102010-06
WinLossTrend

Silva · Last 5

W · Dec · R3
Matt HamillRating 4.5
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Maia vs Shields · 2013-10
W · KO · R1
Rafael CavalcanteRating 5
KO/TKO
UFC on FUEL TV: Nogueira vs. Werdum · 2013-06
Upcoming
Stanislav Nedkov
UFC Macao: Franklin vs Le · 2012-11
L · Dec · R3
Alexander GustafssonRating 5.5
Decision
UFC on FUEL TV: Gustafsson vs Silva · 2012-04
Upcoming
Brandon Vera
UFC 125: Resolution · 2011-01

Jardine · Last 5

L · Dec · R3
Matt HamillRating 5.5
Decision
The Ultimate Fighter: Team Liddell vs Team Ortiz Finale · 2010-06
L · KO · R3
Ryan BaderRating 4
KO/TKO
UFC 110: Nogueira vs Velasquez · 2010-02
L · KO · R1
Thiago SilvaRating 1.5
KO/TKO
UFC 102: Couture vs Nogueira · 2009-08
L · Dec · R3
Quinton JacksonRating 5.5
Decision
UFC 96: Jackson vs Jardine · 2009-03
W · Dec · R3
Brandon VeraRating 4.5
Decision
UFC 89: Bisping vs Leben · 2008-10

News & Media

Thiago Silva · Keith Jardine
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