UFC 231: Holloway vs. Ortega
Toronto, Canada
8 Dec 2018
Welterweight
VS
34%
Oliveira
66%
Nelson
Win Probability
Submission
Round 2 · 4:17
Combatrics Intelligence
Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics
Edge: Nelson
Nelson holds a meaningful edge at 66% per the CFR ratings — but Oliveira has real paths to victory.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 27 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Striking split: Oliveira throws more volume but Nelson connects at a higher rate — quality vs quantity.
Risk flags
Oliveira's chin rating of 0 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
Nelson has a chin rating of 68 — a potential KO vulnerability.
Oliveira
Nelson
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'11"
Height
5'11"
76"+
Reach
72"
38
Age
+37
Orthodox
Stance
Switch
Oliveira
Nelson
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
29.9
56.8
46.5
Performance Avg
52.8
43
Quality of Victory
46
100
Momentum Score
61
Oliveira
Nelson
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.1
0.8
54%
Strike Accuracy
69%
4.7
Striking Style Score (/10)
1.3
4 KOs
KO Finishes
0 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
2
Head
8
2
Body
1
2
Leg
0
RangeRange
2Distance0
4Clinch1
0Ground8
Oliveira
Nelson
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
—
Sub Attempts / fight
0.1
3.0
Grappling Style Score (/10)
6.9
2.1
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
4.8
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Oliveira
Nelson
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
0
68
KO risk
Verdict
Moderate
2
KO/TKO Losses
1
5
Sub Losses
0
Avg R2.5 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R1.0 stoppage
Most recent fight
Last KO loss
6 fights ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
22/34 fights
Chin rating based on
16/25 fights
Oliveira
Nelson
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
100
61
4-fight 📉 slide
Current form
L · KO · R2
L · Dec · R3
L · Sub · R1
L · Sub · R1
W · Dec · R3
Last 5
L · Dec · R3
W · Sub · R1
W · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
Oliveira
Nelson
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
64%
80%
4
KO / TKO Wins
0
3
Submission Wins
8
4
Decision Wins
2
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Oliveira
Nelson
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
4.7
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
1.3
3.0
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
6.9
2.1
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
4.8
2.7
Submission
Submission attack frequency
8.0
6.0
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
7.5
4.0
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
2.9
OliveiraNelson
Strike Zones
Oliveira
Attacking
6 landedAbsorbing
9 absorbedNelson
Attacking
9 landedAbsorbing
6 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Oliveira targets the head (33% of attacks) — Nelson absorbs 33% of strikes there
🎯Nelson targets the head (89% of attacks) — Oliveira absorbs 89% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Oliveira
RND
Nelson
0/0R00/0
Oliveira · QOF Timeline
Avg: 4.6WinLossTrend
Nelson · QOF Timeline
Avg: 5.1WinLossTrend
Oliveira · Last 5
L · KO · R2
Kevin HollandRating 3.4KO/TKO
UFC 272: Covington vs. Masvidal · 2022-03
L · Dec · R3
Niko PriceRating 6.2Decision
UFC Fight Night: Santos vs. Walker · 2021-10
L · Sub · R1
Randy BrownRating 2.4Submission
UFC 261: Usman vs. Masvidal 2 · 2021-04
L · Sub · R1
Shavkat RakhmonovRating 3.6Submission
UFC 254: Khabib vs. Gaethje · 2020-10
W · Dec · R3
Peter SobottaRating 4.5Decision
UFC Fight Night: Whittaker vs. Till · 2020-07
Nelson · Last 5
L · Dec · R3
Kevin HollandRating 6.1Decision
UFC Fight Night: Edwards vs. Brady · 2025-03
W · Sub · R1
Bryan BarberenaRating 5.4Submission
UFC 286: Edwards vs. Usman 3 · 2023-03
W · Dec · R3
Takashi SatoRating 4.7Decision
UFC Fight Night: Volkov vs. Aspinall · 2022-03
L · Dec · R3
Gilbert BurnsRating 5.7Decision
UFC Fight Night: Hermansson vs. Cannonier · 2019-09
L · Dec · R3
Leon EdwardsRating 6.6Decision
UFC Fight Night: Till vs. Masvidal · 2019-03