METRICS GUIDE
Every stat on this page, explained
All stats are calculated from official fight data. Style scores are Combatrics proprietary ratings updated after every event.
UFC 231: Holloway vs. Ortega
Toronto, Canada
8 Dec 2018
Welterweight
VS
34%
Oliveira
66%
Nelson
Win Probability
Submission
Round 2 · 4:17
★ Official Result
Gunnar NelsonwinsSubmissionR2 · 4:17
def. Alex Oliveira · UFC 231: Holloway vs. Ortega
Fight Report
Pre-fight analysis · prediction vs result
Prediction vs Result
We predicted
Nelson
→
Actual result
Nelson wins
Submission · R2
Pre-fight analysis
Nelson holds a meaningful edge at 66% per the CFR ratings — but Oliveira has real paths to victory.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 27 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Risk flags
Oliveira's chin rating of 0 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
Nelson has a chin rating of 68 — a potential KO vulnerability.
This Fight — Statistics
Actual stats from this bout
OliveiraNelson
0
Sig. Strikes
0
0.0
Strikes / min (SLpM)
0.0
—
Strike Accuracy
—
Oliveira
Nelson
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'11"
Height
5'11"
76"+
Reach
72"
38
Age
38
Orthodox
Stance
Switch
Oliveira
Nelson
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
29.9
56.8
46.5
Performance Avg
52.8
43
Quality of Victory
46
100
Momentum Score
61
Oliveira
Nelson
Striking
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
4.7
/ 10
1.3
/ 10
6.0
Style: Pressure
7.5
4.0
Style: Volume
2.9
4 KO wins
Finish Rate (strikes)
0 KO wins
Per-minute strike stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Strike targetStrike target
2
Head
8
2
Body
1
2
Leg
0
RangeRange
2Distance0
4Clinch1
0Ground8
Oliveira
Nelson
Grappling
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
3.0
/ 10
6.9
/ 10
2.1
Wrestling Style (/10)
4.8
2.7
Submission Style (/10)
8.0
3
Submission wins
8
Per-fight takedown stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Oliveira
Nelson
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
0
68
KO risk
Verdict
Moderate
2
KO/TKO Losses
1
5
Sub Losses
0
Avg R2.5 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R1.0 stoppage
Most recent fight
Last KO loss
6 fights ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
22/34 fights
Chin rating based on
16/25 fights
Oliveira
Nelson
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
100
61
4-fight 📉 slide
Current form
L · KO · R2
L · Dec · R3
L · Sub · R1
L · Sub · R1
W · Dec · R3
Last 5
L · Dec · R3
W · Sub · R1
W · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
Oliveira
Nelson
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
64%
80%
4
KO / TKO Wins
0
3
Submission Wins
8
4
Decision Wins
2
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Oliveira
Nelson
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
4.7
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
1.3
3.0
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
6.9
2.1
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
4.8
2.7
Submission
Submission attack frequency
8.0
6.0
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
7.5
4.0
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
2.9
OliveiraNelson
Strike Zones
Oliveira
Attacking
6 landedAbsorbing
9 absorbedNelson
Attacking
9 landedAbsorbing
6 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Oliveira targets the head (33% of attacks) — Nelson absorbs 33% of strikes there
🎯Nelson targets the head (89% of attacks) — Oliveira absorbs 89% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Oliveira
RND
Nelson
0/0R00/0
Oliveira · Last 5
L · KO · R2
Kevin HollandKO/TKO
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L · Sub · R1
Shavkat RakhmonovSubmission
UFC 254: Khabib vs. Gaethje · 2020-10
W · Dec · R3
Peter SobottaDecision
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Nelson · Last 5
L · Dec · R3
Kevin HollandDecision
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W · Sub · R1
Bryan BarberenaSubmission
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W · Dec · R3
Takashi SatoDecision
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L · Dec · R3
Gilbert BurnsDecision
UFC Fight Night: Hermansson vs. Cannonier · 2019-09
L · Dec · R3
Leon EdwardsDecision
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