UFC Fight Night: Yusuff vs. Barboza
Las Vegas, USA
14 Oct 2023
Featherweight
VS
62%
Elkins
38%
Brown
Win Probability
Submission
Round 3 · 2:23
Combatrics Intelligence
Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics
Edge: Elkins
Elkins holds a meaningful edge at 62% per the CFR ratings — but Brown has real paths to victory.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 17 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Striking split: Elkins throws more volume but Brown connects at a higher rate — quality vs quantity.
Risk flags
Elkins's chin rating of 0 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
Brown has a chin rating of 60 — a potential KO vulnerability.
Elkins
Brown
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'10"+
Height
5'9"
71"
Reach
+72"
42
Age
+36
Orthodox
Stance
Switch
Elkins
Brown
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
44.7
27.8
46.3
Performance Avg
34.0
35
Quality of Victory
32
66
Momentum Score
40
Elkins
Brown
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.3
1.0
38%
Strike Accuracy
46%
3.4
Striking Style Score (/10)
0.8
4 KOs
KO Finishes
0 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
2
Head
2
0
Body
0
0
Leg
0
RangeRange
2Distance2
0Clinch0
0Ground0
Elkins
Brown
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
0.1
Sub Attempts / fight
0.3
2.8
Grappling Style Score (/10)
4.3
1.9
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
3.0
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Elkins
Brown
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
0
60
KO risk
Verdict
Never stopped
4
KO/TKO Losses
0
1
Sub Losses
3
Avg R1.5 stoppage
KO round context
—
Most recent fight
Last KO loss
—
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
30/41 fights
Chin rating based on
8/28 fights
Elkins
Brown
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
66
40
Current form
2-fight 📉 slide
L · KO · R1
W · Dec · R3
W · Sub · R3
L · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
Last 5
L · Sub · R3
L · Sub · R2
W · Sub · R3
L · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
Elkins
Brown
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
37%
33%
4
KO / TKO Wins
0
3
Submission Wins
1
12
Decision Wins
2
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Elkins
Brown
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
3.4
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
0.8
2.8
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
4.3
1.9
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
3.0
1.6
Submission
Submission attack frequency
3.3
4.5
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
3.5
6.3
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
6.1
ElkinsBrown
Strike Zones
Elkins
Attacking
2 landedAbsorbing
2 absorbedBrown
Attacking
2 landedAbsorbing
2 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Elkins targets the head (100% of attacks) — Brown absorbs 100% of strikes there
🎯Brown targets the head (100% of attacks) — Elkins absorbs 100% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Elkins
RND
Brown
0/0R00/0
Elkins · QOF Timeline
Avg: 4.7WinLossTrend
Brown · QOF Timeline
Avg: 4.5WinLossTrend
Elkins · Last 5
L · KO · R1
Julian ErosaRating 1.7KO/TKO
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W · Dec · R3
Daniel PinedaRating 5.4Decision
UFC Fight Night: Hernandez vs. Pereira · 2024-10
W · Sub · R3
TJ BrownRating 5.5Submission
UFC Fight Night: Yusuff vs. Barboza · 2023-10
L · Dec · R3
Jonathan PearceRating 6Decision
UFC Fight Night: Thompson vs. Holland · 2022-12
W · Dec · R3
Tristan ConnellyRating 4.5Decision
UFC Fight Night: Font vs. Vera · 2022-04
Brown · Last 5
L · Sub · R3
Darren ElkinsRating 4.5Submission
UFC Fight Night: Yusuff vs. Barboza · 2023-10
L · Sub · R2
Bill AlgeoRating 3Submission
UFC Fight Night: Holloway vs. Allen · 2023-04
W · Sub · R3
Erik SilvaRating 5.5Submission
UFC 282: Blachowicz vs. Ankalaev · 2022-12
L · Dec · R3
Shayilan NuerdanbiekeRating 5.8Decision
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W · Dec · R3
Charles RosaRating 4.5Decision
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